Potential drivers of changing ecological conditions in English and Welsh rivers since 1990.

River invertebrate communities across Europe have been changing in response to variations in water quality over recent decades, but the underlying drivers are difficult to identify because of the complex stressors and environmental heterogeneity involved. Here, using data from ∼4000 locations across England and Wales, collected over 29 years, we use three approaches to help resolve the drivers of spatiotemporal variation in the face of this complexity: i) mapping changes in invertebrate richness and community composition; ii) structural equation modelling (SEM) to distinguish land cover, water quality and climatic influences; and iii) geographically weighted regression (GWR) to identify how the apparent relationships between invertebrate communities and abiotic variables change across the area. Mapping confirmed widespread increases in richness and the proportion of pollution-sensitive taxa across much of England and Wales. It also revealed regions where pollution-sensitive taxa or overall richness declined, the former primarily in the uplands. SEMs confirmed strong increases in average biochemical oxygen demand and nutrient concentrations related to urban and agricultural land cover, but only a minority of land cover's effect upon invertebrate communities was explained by average water chemistry, highlighting potential factors such as episodic extremes or emerging contaminants. GWR identified strong geographical variation in estimated relationships between macroinvertebrate communities and environmental variables, with evidence that the estimated negative impacts of nutrients and water temperature were increasing through time. Overall the results are consistent with widespread biological recovery of Britain's rivers from past gross organic pollution, whilst highlighting declines in some of the most diverse and least impacted streams. Modelling points to a complex and changing set of drivers, highlighting the multifaceted impacts of catchment land cover and the evolving role of different stressors, with the relationship to gross organic pollution weakening, whilst estimated nutrient and warming effects strengthened.

Demonstrating the benefit of a cellulitis-specific patient reported outcome measure (CELLUPROM©) as part of the National Cellulitis Improvement Programme in Wales.

PURPOSE: Despite a known risk of cellulitis recurrence, the management of the wider impact and risk factors has been neglected. The innovative National Cellulitis Improvement Programme (NCIP) addresses this by providing evidence-based and individualised care to improve patient reported outcomes and reduce the risk of recurrence. The aim of this paper is to examine the longer-term impact of cellulitis and to identify a suitable and clinically relevant Patient Reported Outcome Measure (PROM). METHODS: A review of existing cellulitis-specific PROMs was undertaken, alongside literature detailing the patient-focused impact of cellulitis, to identify a suitable PROM for clinical use. A group of expert therapists and patient representatives (n = 14) shared their individual and collective experiences over a series of events to discuss and debate the impact of cellulitis and review available PROMs. CELLUPROM© is introduced with anonymised PROM data and case study information reported to establish the impact of CELLUPROM© within usual NCIP care. RESULTS: No cellulitis-specific PROMs were identified. Literature focused on the signs and symptoms of an acute episode of cellulitis, with outcome measures primarily used to evidence the impact of an intervention. An enduring physical, social and emotional impact of cellulitis was identified in this study, providing the basis for the new cellulitis-specific PROM (CELLUPROM©), which has been implemented with good effect in clinical care. CONCLUSION: This study has highlighted the lasting impact of cellulitis. Using CELLUPROM© within the risk-reduction NCIP has helped develop Value-Based Healthcare and support programme evaluation.

Retrospective Cohort Study of Additional Procedures and Transplant-Free Survival for Patients With Functionally Single Ventricle Disease Undergoing Staged Palliation in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Reinterventions may influence the outcomes of children with functionally single-ventricle (f-SV) congenital heart disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: We undertook a retrospective cohort study of children starting treatment for f-SV between 2000 and 2018 in England, using the national procedure registry. Patients were categorized based on whether they survived free of transplant beyond 1 year of age. Among patients who had transplant-free survival beyond 1 year of age, we explored the relationship between reinterventions in infancy and the outcomes of survival and Fontan completion, adjusting for complexity. Of 3307 patients with f-SV, 909 (27.5%), had no follow-up beyond 1 year of age, among whom 323 (35.3%) had ≥1 reinterventions in infancy. A total of 2398 (72.5%) patients with f-SV had transplant-free survival beyond 1 year of age, among whom 756 (31.5%) had ≥1 reinterventions in infancy. The 5-year transplant-free survival and cumulative incidence of Fontan, among those who survived infancy, were 93.4% (95% CI, 92.4%-94.4%) and 79.3% (95% CI, 77.4%-81.2%), respectively. Both survival and Fontan completion were similar for those with a single reintervention and those who had no reinterventions. Patients who had >1 additional surgery (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.93 [95% CI, 1.87-8.27] P<0.001) had higher adjusted risk of mortality. Patients who had >1 additional interventional catheter (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.52-0.96] P=0.03) had a lower likelihood of achieving Fontan. CONCLUSIONS: Among children with f-SV, the occurrence of >1 reintervention in the first year of life, especially surgical reinterventions, was associated with poorer prognosis later in childhood.

A protocol for neoWONDER: Neonatal whole population data linkage to improve long-term health and wellbeing of preterm and sick babies.

INTRODUCTION: Early-life medical and surgical interventions in babies born preterm and/or with surgical conditions influence later life health and educational outcomes. Obtaining long-term outcomes post-discharge to evaluate the impact of interventions is complex, expensive, and burdensome to families. Linkage of routinely collected data offers a feasible and cost-effective solution. The NeoWONDER research programme aims to describe the short and long-term health and educational outcomes for babies born preterm and/or with surgical conditions and evaluate the impact of neonatal care and interventions on later health and educational outcomes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will include babies who received care in neonatal units in England and Wales, born between 2007-2020 with a gestational age below 32 weeks (approximately 100,000), and/or born between 2012-2020 (all gestations) with any of six surgical conditions: necrotising enterocolitis, Hirschsprung's disease, gastroschisis, oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, and posterior urethral valves (approximately 8,000). A detailed list of surgical condition codes is shown in S3 File. We will obtain long-term health and education outcomes through linkage of the National Neonatal Research Database, which contains routine data for all babies admitted to NHS neonatal units, to other existing health and educational datasets. For England, these are: Hospital Episode Statistics, the Office for National Statistics, Mental Health Services Dataset, Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network, National Pupil Database; and for Wales, the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank. Analysis will be undertaken on de-identified linked datasets. Outcomes of interest for health include mortality, hospital admissions, diagnoses indicative of neurodisability and/or chronic illness, health care utilisation; and for education are attainment (using national curriculum assessments), school absence and special educational needs status.

Temporal trends of in-hospital mortality and its determinants following percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with acute coronary syndrome in England and Wales: A population-based study between 2006 and 2021.

BACKGROUND: There is limited data around drivers of changes in mortality over time. We aimed to examine the temporal changes in mortality and understand its determinants over time. METHODS: 743,149 PCI procedures for patients from the British Cardiovascular Intervention Society (BCIS) database who were aged between 18 and 100 years and underwent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI) for Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) in England and Wales between 2006 and 2021 were included. We decomposed the contributing factors to the difference in the observed mortality proportions between 2006 and 2021 using Fairlie decomposition method. Multiple imputation was used to address missing data. RESULTS: Overall, there was an increase in the mortality proportion over time, from 1.7% (95% CI: 1.5% to 1.9%) in 2006 to 3.1% (95% CI: 3.0% to 3.2%) in 2021. 61.2% of this difference was explained by the variables included in the model. ACS subtypes (percentage contribution: 14.67%; 95% CI: 5.76% to 23.59%) and medical history (percentage contribution: 13.50%; 95% CI: 4.33% to 22.67%) were the strongest contributors to the difference in the observed mortality proportions between 2006 and 2021. Also, there were different drivers to mortality changes between different time periods. Specifically, ACS subtypes and severity of presentation were amongst the strongest contributors between 2006 and 2012 while access site and demographics were the strongest contributors between 2012 and 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Patient factors and the move towards ST-elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI) PCI have driven the short-term mortality changes following PCI for ACS the most.

Ethnicity and suicide in England and Wales: a national linked cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding of ethnic disparities in suicide in England and Wales is poor as ethnicity is not recorded on death certificates. Using linked data, we examined variations, by sex, in suicide rates in England and Wales by ethnicity and migrant and descendant status. METHODS: Using the Office for National Statistics 2012-19 mortality data linked to the 2011 census from the Public Health Research Database, we calculated the age-standardised suicide rates by sex for each of the 18 self-identified ethnicity groups in England and Wales. We present rates by age, sex, and methods used for suicide by ethnic group. We estimated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) using Poisson regression models for each minority ethnic group compared with the majority population. We involved people with lived experience in the research. FINDINGS: Overall, 31 644 suicide deaths occurred over the study period, including 3602 (11%) in people from minority ethnic backgrounds, with a mean age of death of 43·3 years (SD 17·0, range 13-96). Almost all minority ethnic groups had a lower rate of suicide than the White British majority, apart from individuals who identified as being from a Mixed heritage background or White Gypsy or Irish Travellers. In females who identified as Mixed White and Caribbean, the suicide IRR was 1·79 (95% CI 1·45-2·21) compared with the White British majority; in those who identified as White Gypsy or Irish Travellers, the IRR was 2·26 (1·42-3·58). Rates in males identifying as from these two groups and those identifying as White Irish were similar to the White British majority. Compared with the non-migrant population, migrants had a lower rate of suicide regardless of ethnicity, but in the descendant population, people from a Mixed ethnicity background had a higher risk of suicide than the White British majority. INTERPRETATION: There are ethnic disparities in suicide mortality in England and Wales, but the reasons for this are unclear. The higher rate in previously overlooked minority ethnic groups warrants further attention. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.

Needs & networks: understanding the role and impact of social networks on HIV (self-)testing among GBMSM and trans people in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Understanding how HIV self-testing (HIVST) can meet the testing needs of gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) and trans people whose social networks vary is key to upscaling HIVST implementation. We aim to develop a contextual understanding of social networks and HIV testing needs among GBMSM (cis and transgender) and trans women in SELPHI (An HIV Self-testing Public Health Intervention), the UK's largest randomised trial on HIVST. METHODS: This study re-analysed qualitative interviews conducted from 2015 to 2020. Forty-three in-person interviews were thematically analysed using the Framework Method. Our analytic matrix inductively categorised participants based on the unmet needs for HIV testing and the extent of social network support. The role of social networks on HIVST behaviour was explored based on individuals' testing trajectories. RESULTS: Four distinct groups were identified based on their unmet testing needs and perceived support from social networks. Optimisation advocates (people with high unmet needs and with high network support, n = 17) strived to tackle their remaining barriers to HIV testing through timely support and empowerment from social networks. Privacy seekers (people with high unmet needs and with low network support, n = 6) prioritised privacy because of perceived stigma. Opportunistic adopters (people with low unmet needs and with high network support, n = 16) appreciated social network support and acknowledged socially privileged lives. Resilient testers (people with low unmet needs and with low network support, n = 4) might hold potentially disproportionate confidence in managing HIV risks without sustainable coping strategies for potential seroconversion. Supportive social networks can facilitate users' uptake of HIVST by: (1) increasing awareness and positive attitudes towards HIVST, (2) facilitating users' initiation into HIVST with timely support and (3) affording participants an inclusive space to share and discuss testing strategies. CONCLUSIONS: Our proposed categorisation may facilitate the development of differentiated person-centred HIVST programmes. HIVST implementers should carefully consider individuals' unmet testing needs and perceived levels of social support, and design context-specific HIVST strategies that link people lacking supportive social networks to comprehensive HIV care.

Clinical Informatics in Pre-Registration Nurse Education.

This case study explores the pivotal role Clinical Informaticians in Nursing and Midwifery in Wales can have within pre-registration education. It underscores the necessity for nurses and midwives to adapt to digital transformations in healthcare delivery and discusses the potential digital career paths within the often-misunderstood domain of digital nursing. The initiative aimed to enhance awareness at both national and local levels, collaborating with educational institutions to incorporate digital education into pre-registration nursing programs. In partnership with the University of South Wales, sessions were tailored to the existing curriculum to highlight digital career opportunities and foster digital understanding among future nurses. The session design was aligned with course guidelines to emphasize the role of digital technology in quality improvement and leadership. Evaluations using interactive tools facilitated continuous improvement and provided insights, shaping the future of digital integration in nursing education.

Seldom Heard Voices - Empowering Maternity Services in Wales.

Seldom-heard groups refer to individuals whose voices are often marginalised, underrepresented, or not adequately considered in the digital design process. This case study aims to demonstrate the benefits of taking a user-centred design (UCD) approach to implementing a digital solution for Maternity Services in Wales. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to understand the needs of women and birthing people from seldom-heard groups. The research insights were used to inform the design of a service pattern that could be delivered before and after each maternity appointment. The research shows opportunities to improve the experience for women and birthing people and reduce their anxieties by creating a reliable, accessible digital maternity record that will empower them to make evidence-based decisions. By taking a user-centred design approach and centering the unique needs of those facing the greatest health disparities, Maternity Services' digital transformation aims to positively impact the health and well-being of women and birthing people in Wales.

The National Transformation of Nursing Documentation in Wales.

In response to findings indicating poor standardisation and quality in nursing documentation, NHS Wales embarked on a transformative journey with the National Electronic Nursing Documentation Programme in 2014. Evolving into the Welsh Nursing Care Record (WNCR) by 2019, this initiative sought to streamline practices and enhance accuracy, compliance, and efficiency through a standardised digital platform. The case study explores the comprehensive project design, emphasising evidence-based practices, governance processes and the introduction of National Nursing Informatics roles. Accomplished from April 2021 to September 2023, the WNCR implementation achieved a 79% roll out across eligible wards, marked by strategic investments, robust training, and phased deployment. Evaluations to date show positive impacts on key performance indicators, exemplified by a 9-minute time saving per patient. Lessons learned noted the significance of user engagement, cultural transformation, and ongoing staff development, paving the way for future strategies including nationwide implementation, benefits realisation, and data visualisation initiatives.

Calls for the Welsh Government to back reform of veterinary legislation.

At our annual Welsh dinner, BVA President Anna Judson called on the Welsh Government to support urgent reform of the Veterinary Surgeons Act and prioritise the delivery of key animal welfare legislation.

A prospective longitudinal study of risk factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm.

The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) from the largest Welsh screening cohort to date. Patients were recruited from 1993 (to 2015) as part of the South East Wales AAA screening programme through general practitioners. Demographic data and risk factors were collected by means of a self-report questionnaire. Statistical tests were performed to determine whether associations could be observed between AAA and potential risk factors. Odds ratios (OR) were also calculated for each of the risk factors identified. A total of 6879 patients were included in the study. Two hundred and seventy-five patients (4.0%) presented with AAA, of which 16% were female and 84% were male. Patients with AAA were older than the (no AAA) control group (p < 0.0001). The following risk factors were identified for AAA: family history of AAA (p < 0.0001); history of vascular surgery (p < 0.0001), cerebrovascular accident (p < 0.0001), coronary heart disease (p < 0.0001), diabetes (p < 0.0001), medication (p = 0.0018), claudication (p < 0.0001), smoking history (p = 0.0001) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (p = 0.0007). AAA is associated with classical vascular risk factors, in addition to other less-well-documented risk factors including previous vascular surgery. These findings have practical implications with the potential to improve future clinical screening of patients in order to reduce AAA mortality.

Perceptions of the Impact of Comorbidity on the Bowel Cancer Screening Programme: Qualitative Study With Bowel Screening Participants and Staff.

INTRODUCTION: The impact of multiple health conditions on bowel cancer screening is currently unknown. We explored the impact of multiple health conditions on bowel cancer screening perceptions, experience and clinical management decisions following a positive stool test. METHODS: Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted remotely with Bowel Screening Wales staff (n = 16) stratified by regional location and role and with screening participants (n = 19) stratified by age, gender and comorbidity. Interview topics were guided by the Common-Sense Model. RESULTS: Screening participants, regardless of comorbidity status, placed great emphasis on the importance of early detection of cancer and completing the bowel screening process. Screening staff emphasised comorbidities in the clinical decision-making process; however, screening participants had low awareness of the impact that comorbidities can have on bowel screening. Participants describe how the presence of multiple health conditions can mask potential bowel symptoms and influence beliefs about follow-up. CONCLUSION: Bowel screening staff try to individualise the service to meet participant needs. The potential mismatch in screening staff and participant awareness and expectations of the bowel screening and diagnostic process needs to be addressed. Clearer and more regular communication with screening participants could support the screening process, particularly for those with significant coexisting health conditions or facing time delays. The possible masking effects and misattribution of symptoms because of comorbidities highlight an opportunity for education and raising awareness for screening participants and a potential area of focus for discussions in clinical consultations and staff training. PATIENT AND PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: Project funding included costs for patients and public contributors to be compensated for their contributions to the project, in line with current standards. A patient and public contributor was involved in the design of the study, including protocol development, and the interpretation of key findings and implications for patients, which are subsequently reflected within the manuscript.

Welsh hospital admissions due to dog bites and strikes (2014-2022).

OBJECTIVE: To describe the incidence and victim demographics of Welsh hospital admissions due to dog bites and strikes from 2014 to 2022. STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive analysis of Welsh hospital admissions data. METHODS: Residents of Wales admitted to a Welsh National Health Service (NHS) hospital for a dog bite or strike, were identified using ICD-10 codes. The annual incidence of dog bite and strike admissions between 2014 and 2022 was calculated and stratified by child-adult status, sex, and Local Health Boards. Trends over time were analysed using the Chi-square test for trends. RESULTS: Hospital admissions due to dog bites and strikes have significantly increased from 16.3 per 100,000 to 23.7 per 100,000 population in 2022. This was driven by an increase in non-geriatric adults and an increase in three Local Health Boards. The Swansea Bay area has the highest incidence in Wales (56.1 admissions per 100,000). CONCLUSIONS: Wales has a higher incidence of dog bites and strikes than England or the Republic of Ireland. Work in the communities where incidence is exceptionally high is needed to understand the reasons behind having the highest incidence of dog bites in the British Isles and to establish the most efficacious methods for bite prevention.

Informing evidence-based policy during the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery period: learning from a national evidence centre.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the vital need for research to inform policy decision-making and save lives. The Wales COVID-19 Evidence Centre (WCEC) was established in March 2021 and funded for two years, to make evidence about the impact of the pandemic and ongoing research priorities for Wales available and actionable to policy decision-makers, service leads and the public. OBJECTIVES: We describe the approaches we developed and our experiences, challenges and future vision. PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION: The centre operated with a core team, including a public partnership group, and six experienced research groups as collaborating partners. Our rapid evidence delivery process had five stages: 1. Stakeholder engagement (continued throughout all stages); 2. Research question prioritisation; 3. Bespoke rapid evidence review methodology in a phased approach; 4. Rapid primary research; and 5. Knowledge Mobilisation to ensure the evidence was available for decision-makers. MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS: Between March 2021-23 we engaged with 44 stakeholder groups, completed 35 Rapid Evidence Reviews, six Rapid Evidence Maps and 10 Rapid Evidence Summaries. We completed four primary research studies, with three published in peer reviewed journals, and seven ongoing. Our evidence informed policy decision-making and was cited in 19 Welsh Government papers. These included pandemic infection control measures, the Action Plan to tackle gender inequalities, and Education Renew and Reform policy. We conducted 24 Welsh Government evidence briefings and three public facing symposia. POLICY IMPLICATIONS: Strong engagement with stakeholder groups, a phased rapid evidence review approach, and primary research to address key gaps in current knowledge enabled high-quality efficient, evidence outputs to be delivered to help inform Welsh policy decision-making during the pandemic. We learn from these processes to continue to deliver evidence from March 2023 as the Health and Care Research Wales Evidence Centre, with a broader remit of health and social care, to help inform policy and practice decisions during the recovery phase and beyond.

Dispensing antimicrobials to farmers in Wales: The roles and experiences of veterinary practice staff.

BACKGROUND: Veterinary practice staff are directly involved in the dispensing of prescription veterinary medicines (POM-Vs) to farmers as prescribed by registered veterinary surgeons to animals 'under their care'. The role of veterinary practice staff has, to date, been underresearched. The objective of this study was to investigate the roles played by veterinary practice staff, exploring their expectations and perceptions of the front-of-house (FoH) role, their interactions with clients in day-to-day veterinary practice and their experiences relating to the dispensing of POM-Vs. METHODS: Thematic analysis was used to analyse data from 20 semi-structured interviews of veterinary practice staff. Participants were recruited from 80% of the large animal or mixed species veterinary practices across Wales. RESULTS: Four key themes-'piggy in the middle', learning on the job, practice organisation and facilitating change-were identified, illustrating the multifaceted and diverse nature of this type of employment. LIMITATIONS: This study is not intended to be representative of the perceptions of FoH staff on the dispensing of antimicrobials. Larger-scale studies are required to substantiate these findings. CONCLUSION: Understanding the roles of non-clinical veterinary staff allows practice managers and veterinary surgeons to better identify and meet training and staffing needs and improves recognition of this key area of practice work.