Drug Prices After Patent Expirations in High-Income Countries and Implications for Cost-Effectiveness Analyses.

Importance: Understanding how patent expirations affect drug prices is crucial because price changes directly inform accurate cost-effectiveness assessments. This study investigates the association between patent expirations and drug prices in 8 high-income countries and evaluates how the changes affect cost-effectiveness assessments. Objective: To analyze how the expiration of drug patents is associated with drug price changes and to assess the implications of these price changes for cost-effectiveness evaluations. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study performed an event study design using data from 8 high-income countries to assess the association between patent expiration and drug prices, and created a simulation model to understand the implications for cost-effectiveness analyses. The simulation cost-effectiveness model analyzed the implications of including or ignoring postpatent price dynamics. Exposure: Drug patent expiration. Main Outcomes and Measures: Change in drug prices and differences in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios when considering vs ignoring postpatent price dynamics. Results: The sample comprised 505 drugs undergoing patent expiration in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, UK, and US. Price decreases were statistically significant over the 8 years after patent expiration, with the fastest price declines observed in the US: 32% (95% CI, 24%-39%) in year 1 after patent expiration and 82% (95% CI, 71%-89%) in the 8 years after patent expiration. Estimates for other nations ranged from a decrease of 64% in Australia to 18% in Switzerland in the 8 years after expiration. The cost-effectiveness simulation model indicated that not accounting for generic entry into the market may produce biased incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of 40% to -40%, depending on the scenario. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study demonstrate that drug prices were reduced substantially after patent expirations in high-income countries. Therefore, incorporating information on patent status and pricing dynamics in cost-effectiveness assessment analyses is necessary for producing accurate economic evaluations of new drugs.

Cost-effectiveness and benefits of perinatal health interventions in high-income settings: A protocol for a systematic review of economic evaluations.

BACKGROUND: Despite ongoing efforts, perinatal morbidity and mortality persist across all settings, imposing a dual burden of clinical and economic strain. Besides, the fragmented nature of economic evidence on perinatal health interventions hinders the formulation of effective health policies. Our review aims to comprehensively and critically assess the economic evidence for such interventions in high-income countries, where the balance of health outcomes and fiscal prudence is paramount. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct a comprehensive search for studies using databases including EconLit (EBSCO), Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) Registry, Medline (Ovid), Embase (Ovid), CINAHL Ultimate (EBSCO), Global Health (Ovid), and PubMed. Furthermore, we will broaden our search to include Google Scholar and conduct snowballing from the final articles included. The search terms will encompass economic evaluation, perinatal health interventions, morbidity and mortality, and high-income countries. We will include full economic evaluations focusing on cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit, cost-utility, and cost-minimisation analyses. We will exclude partial economic evaluations, reports, qualitative studies, conference papers, editorials, and systematic reviews. Date restrictions will limit the review to studies published after 2010 and those in English during the study selection process. We will use the modified Drummond checklist to evaluate the quality of each included study. Our findings will adhere to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) 2020 statement. A summary will include estimated costs, effectiveness, benefits, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). We also plan to conduct a subgroup analysis. To aid comparability, we will standardise all costs to the United States Dollar, adjusting them to their 2022 value using country-specific consumer price index and purchasing power parity. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This systematic review will not involve human participants and requires no ethical approval. We will publish the results in a peer-reviewed journal. TRIAL REGISTRATION: We registered our record on PROSPERO (registration #: CRD42023432232).

Global food expenditure patterns diverge between low-income and high-income countries.

Globalization, income growth and changing cultural trends are believed to prompt consumers in low-income countries to adopt the more affluent diet of high-income countries. This study investigates the convergence of food expenditure patterns worldwide, focusing on total food expenditure, raw food categories and ultra-processed foods and beverages across more than 90 countries over the past decades. Contrary to prior belief, we find that food expenditure patterns of lower-income countries do not universally align with those of higher-income nations. This trend is evident across most raw food categories and ultra-processed foods and beverages, as the income level of a country continues to play a crucial role in determining its food expenditure patterns. Importantly, expenditure patterns offer estimates rather than a precise idea of dietary intake, reflecting consumer choices shaped by economic constraints rather than exact dietary consumption.

ICT diffusion and financial development: Comparing high, middle, and low-income countries.

Given the importance of ICT diffusion in the development of the financial sector, this analysis is an effort to analyze the transmission channels between the two in high-income and middle and low-income economies over 2001-2019. We have used three variables, including the ICT index, individuals using the internet, and mobile subscribers, to represent ICT and three indices, including the financial development index, financial institution index, and financial market index, to make our results reliable and robust. We utilized a GMM method for conducting the empirical analysis. Generally, our results imply that ICT diffusion positively impacts financial development in high-income economies and negatively impacts middle and low-income economies. Our findings suggest that middle- and low-income-economy policymakers should follow the footprint of the high-income economies and increase the role of ICT in the financial sector for its development.

The relationship between health insurance and economic performance: an empirical study based on meta-analysis.

Health insurance stands as a pivotal facet of social wellbeing, with profound implications for the overarching landscape of economic development. The existing research, however, lacks consensus on the relationship between health insurance and economic performance and provides no evidence about the magnitude of the correlation. This lack of information seriously impedes the high-quality development of the healthcare system. Therefore, to scientifically elucidate the relationship between the two, this study involved a meta-analysis, analyzing 479 effect values derived from 34 independent research samples. The results reveal a strongly positive correlation between health insurance and economic performance [r = 0.429, 95% CI = (0.381, 0.475)]. Findings show that health insurance in developed countries more effectively fosters economic performance than in developing countries. Moreover, public health insurance exerts a stronger promoting effect on economic performance than commercial health insurance. The relationship between health insurance and economic performance is moderated by data type, research method, country of sample origin, literature type, journal impact factor, publication year, type of health insurance, and the research populations. Based on meta-analysis, this study not only scientifically responds to the controversy of the relationship between health insurance and economic performance, and the magnitude of a correlation, but also further reveals the inner conduction mechanism between the two. Our research findings are meaningful for policymakers to choose an appropriate healthcare strategy according to their unique attributes, propelling sustainable economic development.

Economic Evaluation of COVID-19 Screening Tests and Surveillance Strategies in Low-Income, Middle-Income, and High-Income Countries: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND Economic evaluation of the testing strategies to control transmission and monitor the severity of COVID-19 after the pandemic is essential. This study aimed to review the economic evaluation of COVID-19 tests and to construct a model with outcomes in terms of cost and test acceptability for surveillance in the post-pandemic period in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. MATERIAL AND METHODS We performed the systematic review following PRISMA guidelines through MEDLINE and EMBASE databases. We included the relevant studies that reported the economic evaluation of COVID-19 tests for surveillance. Also, we input current probability, sensitivity, and specificity for COVID-19 surveillance in the post-pandemic period. RESULTS A total of 104 articles met the eligibility criteria, and 8 articles were reviewed and assessed for quality. The specificity and sensitivity of COVID-19 screening tests were reported as 80% to 90% and 40% to 90%, respectively. The target population presented a mortality rate between 0.2% and 19.2% in the post-pandemic period. The implementation model of COVID-19 screening tests for surveillance with a cost mean for molecular and antigen tests was US$ 46.64 (min-max US $0.25-$105.39) and US $6.15 (min-max US $2-$10), respectively. CONCLUSIONS For the allocation budget for the COVID-19 surveillance test, it is essential to consider the incidence and mortality of the post-pandemic period in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. A robust method to evaluate outcomes is needed to prevent increasing COVID-19 incidents earlier.

It Is Time to Reconsider the 3% Discount Rate.

OBJECTIVES: Health technology assessment (HTA) guidance often recommends a 3% real annual discount rate, the appropriateness of which has received limited attention. This article seeks to identify an appropriate rate for high-income countries because it can influence projected cost-effectiveness and hence resource allocation recommendations. METHODS: The author conducted 2 Pubmed.gov searches. The first sought articles on the theory for selecting a rate. The second sought HTA guidance documents. RESULTS: The first search yielded 21 articles describing 2 approaches. The "Ramsey Equation" sums contributions by 4 factors: pure time preference, catastrophic risk, wealth effect, and macroeconomic risk. The first 3 factors increase the discount rate because they indicate future impacts are less important, whereas the last, suggesting greater future need, decreases the discount rate. A fifth factor-project-specific risk-increases the discount rate but does not appear in the Ramsey Equation. Market interest rates represent a second approach for identifying a discount rate because they represent competing investment returns and hence opportunity costs. The second search identified HTA guidelines for 32 high-income countries. Twenty-two provide no explicit rationale for their recommended rates, 8 appeal to market interest rates, 3 to consistency, and 3 to Ramsey Equation factors. CONCLUSIONS: Declining consumption growth and real interest rates imply HTA guidance should reduce recommended discount rates to 1.5 to 2+%. This change will improve projected cost-effectiveness for therapies with long-term benefits and increase the impact of accounting for long-term drug price dynamics, including reduced prices attending loss of market exclusivity.

Economic evaluations of assisted reproductive technologies in high-income countries: a systematic review.

STUDY QUESTION: Which assited reproductive technology (ART) interventions in high-income countries are cost-effective and which are not? SUMMARY ANSWER: Among all ART interventions assessed in economic evaluations, most high-cost interventions, including preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidy (PGT-A) for a general population and ICSI for unexplained infertility, are unlikely to be cost-effective owing to minimal or no increase in effectiveness. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Approaches to reduce costs in order to increase access have been identified as a research priority for future infertility research. There has been an increasing number of ART interventions implemented in routine clinical practice globally, before robust assessments of evidence on economic evaluations. The extent of clinical effectiveness of some studied comparisons has been evaluated in high-quality research, allowing more informative decision making around cost-effectiveness. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We performed a systematic review and searched seven databases (MEDLINE, PUBMED, EMBASE, COCHRANE, ECONLIT, SCOPUS, and CINAHL) for studies examining ART interventions for infertility together with an economic evaluation component (cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit, cost-utility, or cost-minimization assessment), in high-income countries, published since January 2011. The last search was 22 June 2022. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Two independent reviewers assessed publications and included those fulfilling the eligibility criteria. Studies were examined to assess the cost-effectiveness of the studied intervention, as well as the reporting quality of the study. The chosen outcome measure and payer perspective were also noted. Completeness of reporting was assessed against the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standard. Results are presented and summarized based on the intervention studied. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The review included 40 studies which were conducted in 11 high-income countries. Most studies (n = 34) included a cost-effectiveness analysis. ART interventions included medication or strategies for controlled ovarian stimulation (n = 15), IVF (n = 9), PGT-A (n = 7), single embryo transfer (n = 5), ICSI (n = 3), and freeze-all embryo transfer (n = 1). Live birth was the mostly commonly reported primary outcome (n = 27), and quality-adjusted life years was reported in three studies. The health funder perspective was used in 85% (n = 34) of studies. None of the included studies measured patient preference for treatment. It remains uncertain whether PGT-A improves pregnancy rates compared to IVF cycles managed without PGT-A, and therefore cost-effectiveness could not be demonstrated for this intervention. Similarly, ICSI in non-male factor infertility appears not to be clinically effective compared to standard fertilization in an IVF cycle and is therefore not cost-effective. Interventions such as use of biosimilars or HMG for ovarian stimulation are cheaper but compromise clinical effectiveness. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Lack of both preference-based and standardized outcomes limits the comparability of results across studies. The selection of efficacy evidence offered for some interventions for economic evaluations is not always based on high-quality randomized trials and systematic reviews. In addition, there is insufficient knowledge of the willingness to pay thresholds of individuals and state funders for treatment of infertility. There is variable quality of reporting scores, which might increase uncertainty around the cost-effectiveness results. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Investment in strategies to help infertile people who utilize ART is justifiable at both personal and population levels. This systematic review may assist ART funders decide how to best invest to maximize the likelihood of delivery of a healthy child. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): There was no funding for this study. E.C. and R.W. receive salary support from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) through their fellowship scheme (EC GNT1159536, RW 2021/GNT2009767). M.D.-T. reports consulting fees from King Fahad Medical School. All other authors have no competing interests to declare. REGISTRATION NUMBER: Prospero CRD42021261537.

Unequal climate impacts on global values of natural capital.

Ecosystems generate a wide range of benefits for humans, including some market goods as well as other benefits that are not directly reflected in market activity1. Climate change will alter the distribution of ecosystems around the world and change the flow of these benefits2,3. However, the specific implications of ecosystem changes for human welfare remain unclear, as they depend on the nature of these changes, the value of the affected benefits and the extent to which communities rely on natural systems for their well-being4. Here we estimate country-level changes in economic production and the value of non-market ecosystem benefits resulting from climate-change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover, as projected by dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) driven by general circulation climate models. Our results show that the annual population-weighted mean global flow of non-market ecosystem benefits valued in the wealth accounts of the World Bank will be reduced by 9.2% in 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-6.0 with respect to the baseline no climate change scenario and that the global population-weighted average change in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 is -1.3% of the baseline GDP. Because lower-income countries are more reliant on natural capital, these GDP effects are regressive. Approximately 90% of these damages are borne by the poorest 50% of countries and regions, whereas the wealthiest 10% experience only 2% of these losses.

Aspirin for Secondary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in 51 Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries.

Importance: Aspirin is an effective and low-cost option for reducing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and improving mortality rates among individuals with established CVD. To guide efforts to mitigate the global CVD burden, there is a need to understand current levels of aspirin use for secondary prevention of CVD. Objective: To report and evaluate aspirin use for secondary prevention of CVD across low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Design, Setting, and Participants: Cross-sectional analysis using pooled, individual participant data from nationally representative health surveys conducted between 2013 and 2020 in 51 low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Included surveys contained data on self-reported history of CVD and aspirin use. The sample of participants included nonpregnant adults aged 40 to 69 years. Exposures: Countries' per capita income levels and world region; individuals' socioeconomic demographics. Main Outcomes and Measures: Self-reported use of aspirin for secondary prevention of CVD. Results: The overall pooled sample included 124 505 individuals. The median age was 52 (IQR, 45-59) years, and 50.5% (95% CI, 49.9%-51.1%) were women. A total of 10 589 individuals had a self-reported history of CVD (8.1% [95% CI, 7.6%-8.6%]). Among individuals with a history of CVD, aspirin use for secondary prevention in the overall pooled sample was 40.3% (95% CI, 37.6%-43.0%). By income group, estimates were 16.6% (95% CI, 12.4%-21.9%) in low-income countries, 24.5% (95% CI, 20.8%-28.6%) in lower-middle-income countries, 51.1% (95% CI, 48.2%-54.0%) in upper-middle-income countries, and 65.0% (95% CI, 59.1%-70.4%) in high-income countries. Conclusion and Relevance: Worldwide, aspirin is underused in secondary prevention, particularly in low-income countries. National health policies and health systems must develop, implement, and evaluate strategies to promote aspirin therapy.

Global Variations in Heart Failure Etiology, Management, and Outcomes.

Importance: Most epidemiological studies of heart failure (HF) have been conducted in high-income countries with limited comparable data from middle- or low-income countries. Objective: To examine differences in HF etiology, treatment, and outcomes between groups of countries at different levels of economic development. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multinational HF registry of 23 341 participants in 40 high-income, upper-middle-income, lower-middle-income, and low-income countries, followed up for a median period of 2.0 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: HF cause, HF medication use, hospitalization, and death. Results: Mean (SD) age of participants was 63.1 (14.9) years, and 9119 (39.1%) were female. The most common cause of HF was ischemic heart disease (38.1%) followed by hypertension (20.2%). The proportion of participants with HF with reduced ejection fraction taking the combination of a ß-blocker, renin-angiotensin system inhibitor, and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist was highest in upper-middle-income (61.9%) and high-income countries (51.1%), and it was lowest in low-income (45.7%) and lower-middle-income countries (39.5%) (P < .001). The age- and sex- standardized mortality rate per 100 person-years was lowest in high-income countries (7.8 [95% CI, 7.5-8.2]), 9.3 (95% CI, 8.8-9.9) in upper-middle-income countries, 15.7 (95% CI, 15.0-16.4) in lower-middle-income countries, and it was highest in low-income countries (19.1 [95% CI, 17.6-20.7]). Hospitalization rates were more frequent than death rates in high-income countries (ratio = 3.8) and in upper-middle-income countries (ratio = 2.4), similar in lower-middle-income countries (ratio = 1.1), and less frequent in low-income countries (ratio = 0.6). The 30-day case-fatality rate after first hospital admission was lowest in high-income countries (6.7%), followed by upper-middle-income countries (9.7%), then lower-middle-income countries (21.1%), and highest in low-income countries (31.6%). The proportional risk of death within 30 days of a first hospital admission was 3- to 5-fold higher in lower-middle-income countries and low-income countries compared with high-income countries after adjusting for patient characteristics and use of long-term HF therapies. Conclusions and Relevance: This study of HF patients from 40 different countries and derived from 4 different economic levels demonstrated differences in HF etiologies, management, and outcomes. These data may be useful in planning approaches to improve HF prevention and treatment globally.

Ear and hearing care programs for First Nations children: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Ear and hearing care programs are critical to early detection and management of otitis media (or middle ear disease). Otitis media and associated hearing loss disproportionately impacts First Nations children. This affects speech and language development, social and cognitive development and, in turn, education and life outcomes. This scoping review aimed to better understand how ear and hearing care programs for First Nations children in high-income colonial-settler countries aimed to reduce the burden of otitis media and increase equitable access to care. Specifically, the review aimed to chart program strategies, map the focus of each program against 4 parts of a care pathway (prevention, detection, diagnosis/management, rehabilitation), and to identify the factors that indicated the longer-term sustainability and success of programs. METHOD: A database search was conducted in March 2021 using Medline, Embase, Global Health, APA PsycInfo, CINAHL, Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus, and Academic Search Premier. Programs were eligible or inclusion if they had either been developed or run at any time between January 2010 to March 2021. Search terms encompassed terms such as First Nations children, ear and hearing care, and health programs, initiatives, campaigns, and services. RESULTS: Twenty-seven articles met the criteria to be included in the review and described a total of twenty-one ear and hearing care programs. Programs employed strategies to: (i) connect patients to specialist services, (ii) improve cultural safety of services, and (iii) increase access to ear and hearing care services. However, program evaluation measures were limited to outputs or the evaluation of service-level outcome, rather than patient-based outcomes. Factors which contributed to program sustainability included funding and community involvement although these were limited in many cases. CONCLUSION: The result of this study highlighted that programs primarily operate at two points along the care pathway-detection and diagnosis/management, presumably where the greatest need lies. Targeted strategies were used to address these, some which were limited in their approach. The success of many programs are evaluated as outputs, and many programs rely on funding sources which can potentially limit longer-term sustainability. Finally, the involvement of First Nations people and communities typically only occurred during implementation rather than across the development of the program. Future programs should be embedded within a connected system of care and tied to existing policies and funding streams to ensure long term viability. Programs should be governed and evaluated by First Nations communities to further ensure programs are sustainable and are designed to meet community needs.