The value of immature granulocyte percentage united with D-Dimer in the evaluation of severe pancreatitis and its prognosis.

OBJECTIVE: The study aimed at analyzing the serum expression of Immature Granulocyte percentage (IG %) and D-Dimer (D-D) in patients with severe pancreatitis and exploring their clinical diagnostic value. METHODS: Eighty-four cases with severe pancreatitis received in Shengjing Hospital, China Medical University from July 2020 to July 2023 were regarded as the study group and conducted for retrospective analysis. They were divided into a survival group (n = 62) and a death group (n = 22) based on the prognosis. Another 80 patients diagnosed with mild and moderate pancreatitis were selected as the control group. Serum IG % and D-D levels of all subjects were analyzed and the value of IG % and D-D in the evaluation of severe pancreatitis and its prognosis was conducted by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: The IG % and D-D levels in the study group were markedly higher than the control group (p < 0.05). The IG % and D-D level in the death group were observably higher than the survival group (p < 0.05). The Area Under the Curve (AUC) of IG % and D-D combined assessment for severe pancreatitis was 0.963, and the sensitivity and specificity were 98.75 %, 82.14 %, respectively. The AUC of IG % and D-D combined assessment for prognosis of severe pancreatitis was 0.814 with a sensitivity of 79.03 % and a specificity of 77.27 %. The efficiency of joint evaluation of the two indicators is superior to the individual evaluation. CONCLUSION: Serum IG % and D-D are highly expressed in patients with severe pancreatitis, which has important clinical value for the evaluation of severe pancreatitis and its prognosis.

Chronic liver disease is an important risk factor for worse outcomes in acute pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Chronic liver diseases (CLD) affect 1.5 billion patients worldwide, with dramatically increasing incidence in recent decades. It has been hypothesized that the chronic hyperinflammation associated with CLD may increase the risk of a more severe course of acute pancreatitis (AP). This study aims to investigate the underlying impact of CLD on the outcomes of AP. A systematic search was conducted in Embase, Medline, and Central databases until October 2022. Studies investigating patients with acute pancreatitis and CLD, were included in the meta-analysis. A total of 14,963 articles were screened, of which 36 were eligible to be included. CLD was a risk factor for increased mortality with an odds ratio (OR) of 2.53 (CI 1.30 to 4.93, p = 0.01). Furthermore, renal, cardiac, and respiratory failures were more common in the CLD group, with ORs of 1.92 (CI 1.3 to 2.83, p = 0.01), 2.11 (CI 0.93 to 4.77, p = 0.062) and 1.99 (CI 1.08 to 3.65, p = 0.033), respectively. Moreover, the likelihood of developing Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) was significantly higher, with an OR of 1.95 (CI 1.03 to 3.68, p = 0.042). CLD is an important risk factor for worse outcomes in AP pancreatitis, leading to higher mortality and increased rates of local and systemic complications.

Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting survival in elderly patients with severe acute pancreatitis: a retrospective study from a tertiary center.

PURPOSE: There is a lack of adequate models specifically designed for elderly patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) to predict the risk of death. This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of SAP in elderly patients. METHODS: Elderly patients diagnosed with SAP between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2022 were included in the study. Risk factors were identified through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis. Subsequently, a novel nomogram model was developed using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using metrics such as the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 326 patients were included in the analysis, with 260 in the survival group and 66 in the deceased group. Multivariate logistic regression indicated that age, respiratory rate, arterial pH, total bilirubin, and calcium were independent prognostic factors for the survival of SAP patients. The nomogram demonstrated a performance comparable to sequential organ failure assessment (P = 0.065). Additionally, the calibration curve showed satisfactory predictive accuracy, and the DCA highlighted the clinical application value of the nomogram. CONCLUSION: We have identified key demographic and laboratory parameters that are associated with the survival of elderly patients with SAP. These parameters have been utilized to create a precise and user-friendly nomogram, which could be an effective and valuable clinical tool for clinicians.

Prognostic role of suPAR in acute pancreatitis: A protocol for systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common emergency condition with high morbidity, mortality, and socio-economic impact. Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is a potential biomarker for AP prognosis. This study systematically reviews the literature on suPAR's prognostic roles in assessing AP severity, organ failure, mortality, and other pathological markers. METHODS: A comprehensive search of 5 databases up to March 19, 2023, was conducted, selecting cohort studies that examined suPAR's relationship with AP outcomes. Outcome variables included AP severity, organ failure, mortality, hospital stay length, and suPAR's association with other inflammatory markers. Our paper has been registered on Prospero (ID: CRD42023410628). RESULTS: Nine prospective observational studies with 1033 AP patients were included. Seven of eight studies found suPAR significantly elevated in severe acute pancreatitis (P < .05). Four studies showed suPAR effectively predicted organ failure risk, and 4 studies concluded suPAR significantly predicted mortality (P < .05). The review had no high-risk studies, enhancing credibility. CONCLUSION: suPAR is a valuable prognostic marker in AP, significantly predicting severity, organ failure, hospital stay length, and mortality. Further large-scale studies are needed to explore suPAR's role in other clinical outcomes related to AP disease course, to establish it as a mainstay of AP prognosis.

Analysis of factors influencing onset and survival of patients with severe acute pancreatitis: A clinical study.

OBJECTIVES: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory disease of the pancreas, and the prognosis of severe AP (SAP) is poor. The study aimed to identify promising biomarkers for predicting the occurrence and survival outcome of SAP patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two hundred and forty AP patients were retrospectively recruited, in which 72 cases with SAP. Blood test was done for collection of laboratory indicators. After treatment, the mortality of patients was recorded. RESULTS: Patients in the SAP group had higher intensive care unit admissions and longer hospital stays (p < .001). Among laboratory parameters, significantly high values of C-reactive protein (CRP), triglycerides and glucose (TyG) index, Von willebrand factor antigen (vWF:Ag) and D-dimer were found in SAP groups relative to non-SAP ones. Receiver operating characteristic curve indicated the good performance of CRP, TyG index, vWF:Ag and D-dimer in SAP diagnosis. Among all SAP cases, 51 survived while 21 died. TyG index (odds ratio [OR] = 6.914, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.193-40.068, p = .028), vWF:Ag (OR = 7.441, 95% CI = 1.236-244.815, p = .028), and D-dimer (OR = 7.987, 95% CI = 1.251-50.997, p = .028) were significantly related to survival outcome of SAP patients by multiple logistic regression analysis. Both TyG index and vWF showed favorable efficiency in predicting overall prognosis. The area under the curve for the multivariate model (PRE = -35.908 + 2.764 × TyG + 0.021 × vWF:Ag) was 0.909 which was greater than 0.9, indicating its excellent performance in prognosis prediction. CONCLUSION: CRP, TyG index, vWF:Ag, and D-dimer values on admission may be potential clinical predictors of the development of SAP. Moreover, TyG index and vWF:Ag may be helpful to predict survival outcome.

Comparative safety assessment of nasogastric versus nasojejunal feeding initiated within 48 hours post-admission versus unrestricted timing in moderate or severe acute pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The primary objective of this study is to comparatively assess the safety of nasogastric (NG) feeding versus nasojejunal (NJ) feeding in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), with a special focus on the initiation of these feeding methods within the first 48 h of hospital admission. METHODS: Studies were identified through a systematic search in PubMed, EMbase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Web of Science. Four studies involving 217 patients were included. This systematic review assesses the safety and efficacy of nasogastric versus nasojejunal feeding initiated within 48 h post-admission in moderate/severe acute pancreatitis, with a specific focus on the timing of initiation and patient age as influential factors. RESULTS: The results showed that the mortality rates were similar between NG and NJ feeding groups (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.42 to 1.77, P = 0.68). Significant differences were observed in the incidence of diarrhea (RR 2.75, 95% CI 1.21 to 6.25, P = 0.02) and pain (RR 2.91, 95% CI 1.50 to 5.64, P = 0.002) in the NG group. The NG group also showed a higher probability of infection (6.67% vs. 3.33%, P = 0.027) and a higher frequency of multiple organ failures. Subgroup analysis for early intervention (within 48 h) showed a higher risk of diarrhea in the NG group (RR 2.80, P = 0.02). No significant differences were found in the need for surgical intervention, parenteral nutrition, or success rates of feeding procedures. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis highlights the importance of considering the method and timing of nutritional support in acute pancreatitis. While NG feeding within 48 h of admission increases the risk of certain complications such as diarrhea and infection, it does not significantly impact mortality or the need for surgical intervention.

The impact of skeletal muscle index at the third lumbar spine on nosocomial deterioration and short-term prognosis in acute pancreatitis: a retrospective observational study.

Objective: To investigate the impact of the third lumbar skeletal muscle index (L3-SMI) assessed by CT on the in-hospital severity and short-term prognosis of acute pancreatitis. Methods: A total of 224 patients with severe acute pancreatitis admitted to Yantaishan Hospital from January 2021 to June 2022 were selected as the subjects. Based on the in-hospital treatment outcomes, they were divided into a mortality group of 59 cases as well as a survival group of 165 cases. Upon admission, general information such as the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, along with the abdominal CT images of each patient, were analyzed. The L3-SMI was calculated, and the Modified CT Severity Index (MCTSI) and Balthazar CT grade were used to assess the severity of in-hospital complications of acute pancreatitis. The evaluation value of L3-SMI for the prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis was analyzed, as well as the factors influencing the prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis. Results: No statistically significant differences in gender, age, BMI, etiology, duration of anti-inflammatory drug use, and proportion of surgical patients between the survival and mortality groups were observed. But the mortality group showed higher proportions of patients with an elevated APACHE II score upon admission, mechanical ventilation, and renal replacement therapy, compared to the survival group, with statistically significant differences (P < 0.001). Furthermore, the mortality group had higher MCTSI scores (6.42 ± 0.69) and Balthazar CT grades (3.78 ± 0.45) than the survival group, with statistically significant differences (P < 0.001). The mortality group also had a lower L3-SMI (39.68 ± 3.25) compared to the survival group (42.71 ± 4.28), with statistically significant differences (P < 0.001). L3-SMI exhibited a negative correlation with MCTSI scores and Balthazar CT grades (r = -0.889, -0.790, P < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis, with mortality of acute pancreatitis patients as the dependent variable and MCTSI scores, Balthazar CT grades, L3-SMI, APACHE II score upon admission, mechanical ventilation, and renal replacement therapy as independent variables, revealed that MCTSI scores and L3-SMI were risk factors for mortality in acute pancreatitis patients (P < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis using the same variables confirmed that all these factors were risk factors for mortality in acute pancreatitis patients. Conclusion: This study confirmed that diagnosing muscle depletion using L3-SMI is a valuable radiological parameter for predicting in-hospital severity and short-term prognosis in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Comparison of Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis and Emergency Department SpO2, Age and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome Scores in Predicting Severe Acute Pancreatitis in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis in the Emergency Department.

BACKGROUND: As the mortality of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is significantly higher than those with mild or moderate severity, it is of clinical significance to identify patients most likely to develop SAP at the time of emergency department (ED) presentation. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to compare the performance of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) and the Emergency Department SpO2, Age and SIRS (ED-SAS) scoring systems as early risk assessment tools for identifying patients at high-risk of developing SAP. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed adult patients with AP presented to ED between January 2019-September 2022. We calculated the scores of each patient with the parameters of the initial data. The primary outcome was SAP. The secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality, intensive care admission, and identifying low-risk patients without complications. RESULTS: Of 415 patients, 34 (8.2%) developed SAP and 15 (3.6%) died. With regard to predicting SAP, BISAP and ED-SAS scores had similar discriminative ability with area under the curves (AUCs) of 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI]:0.80-0.88) and 0.83 (95% CI:0.79-0.86), respectively (p = 0.642). At a cut-off score of ≥2 for SAP, sensitivity/specificity values were 73.5%/82.4% for BISAP, 76.5%/83.2% for ED-SAS. BISAP and ED-SAS scores of ≥3, yielded sensitivity/specificity values of 50%/95.8% and 35.3%/95.5%, respectively. BISAP and ED-SAS were also similar in predicting mortality (AUCs of 0.92 vs. 0.90, respectively) and intensive care unit admission (AUCs 0.91 vs. 0.91). CONCLUSION: The BISAP and ED-SAS scores performed similarly in predicting SAP, mortality, and intensive care unit admission. As an easily calculated tool early in the ED, ED-SAS may be helpful in disposition decisions for emergency physicians.

Serum Lactate Is an Indicator for Short-Term and Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Serum lactate, as a single and an easily available biomarker, has been applied in various diseases. AIMS: In this study, we aimed to explore the predictive value of serum lactate for short-term and long-term prognosis in acute pancreatitis (AP) admitted in intensive care unit (ICU) based on a large-scale database. METHODS: AP patients admitted in ICU in the MIMIC-IV database were included. We constructed three different models to investigate the relationships between serum lactate and clinical outcomes, including 30-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality in AP. Smooth fitting curves were performed for intuitively demonstrating the relationship between serum lactate and different outcomes in AP by the generalized additive model. RESULTS: A total of 895 AP patients admitted in ICU were included. The mortalities of 30 days, 180 days, and 1 year were 12.63% (n = 113), 16.87% (n = 151), and 17.54% (n = 157). In model B, with 1-mmol/L increment in serum lactate, the values of OR in 30-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality were 1.20 (95%CI 1.04-1.37, P = 0.0094), 1.21 (95%CI 1.06-1.37, P = 0.0039), and 1.21 (95%CI 1.07-1.38, P = 0.0035). The AUCs of serum lactate for predicting 30-day, 180-day, and 1-year mortality in AP were 0.688 (95%CI 0.633-0.743), 0.655 (95%CI 0.605-0.705), and 0.653 (95%CI 0.603-0.701), respectively. The cut-off value of serum lactate predicting 30-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality in AP was 2.4 mmol/L. CONCLUSION: Serum lactate could be an indicator for short-term and long-term mortality in patients with AP admitted in ICU.

Impact of Geospatial Food Access on Acute Pancreatitis Outcomes.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Food access is an important social determinant of health and refers to geographical and infrastructural aspects of food availability. Using publicly available data on food access from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), geospatial analyses can identify regions with variable food access, which may impact acute pancreatitis (AP), an acute inflammatory condition characterized by unpredictable outcomes and substantial mortality. This study aimed to investigate the association of clinical outcomes in patients with AP with geospatial food access. METHODS: We examined AP-related hospitalizations at a tertiary center from January 2008 to December 2018. The physical addresses were geocoded through ArcGIS Pro2.7.0 (ESRI, Redlands, CA). USDA Food Access Research Atlas defined low food access as urban areas with 33% or more of the population residing over one mile from the nearest food source. Regression analyses enabled assessment of the association between AP outcomes and food access. RESULTS: The study included 772 unique patients with AP residing in Massachusetts with 931 AP-related hospitalizations. One hundred and ninety-eight (25.6%) patients resided in census tracts with normal urban food access and 574 (74.4%) patients resided in tracts with low food access. AP severity per revised Atlanta classification [OR 1.88 (95%CI 1.21-2.92); p = 0.005], and 30-day AP-related readmission [OR 1.78(95%CI 1.11-2.86); p = 0.02] had significant association with food access, despite adjustment for demographics, healthcare behaviors, and comorbidities (Charlson Comorbidity Index). However, food access lacked significant association with AP-related mortality (p = 0.40) and length of stay (LOS: p = 0.99). CONCLUSION: Low food access had a significant association with 30-day AP-related readmissions and AP severity. However, mortality and LOS lacked significant association with food access. The association between nutrition, lifestyle, and AP outcomes warrants further prospective investigation.

Predictive value of the Ranson and BISAP scoring systems for the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: To systematically assess and compare the predictive value of the Ranson and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) scoring systems for the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP). METHODS: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were systematically searched until February 15, 2023. Outcomes in this analysis included severity and prognosis [mortality, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission]. The revised Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool was used to evaluate the quality of diagnostic accuracy studies. The threshold effect was evaluated for each outcome. The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and the area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve (AUC) as well as 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. The DeLong test was used for AUC comparisons. For the outcome evaluated by over 9 studies, publication bias was assessed using the Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test. RESULTS: Totally 17 studies of 5476 AP patients were included. For severity, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.95 (95%CI: 0.87, 0.98) and 0.67 (95%CI: 0.27, 0.92); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.74 (0.52, 0.88) and 0.95 (95%CI: 0.85, 0.98); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.95 (95%CI: 0.93, 0.97) and 0.94 (95%CI: 0.92, 0.96) (P = 0.480). For mortality, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.89 (95%CI: 0.73, 0.96) and 0.77 (95%CI: 0.58, 0.89); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.79 (95%CI: 0.68, 0.87) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.86, 0.93); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.91 (95%CI: 0.88, 0.93) and 0.92 (95%CI: 0.90, 0.94) (P = 0.480). For organ failure, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.84 (95%CI: 0.76, 0.90) and 0.78 (95%CI: 0.60, 0.90); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.84 (95%CI: 0.63, 0.94) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.72, 0.97); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.86 (95%CI: 0.82, 0.88) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.87, 0.93) (P = 0.110). For pancreatic necrosis, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.63 (95%CI: 0.35, 0.84) and 0.63 (95%CI: 0.23, 0.90); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.90 (95%CI: 0.77, 0.96) and 0.93 (95%CI: 0.89, 0.96); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.87 (95%CI: 0.84, 0.90) and 0.93 (95%CI: 0.91, 0.95) (P = 0.001). For ICU admission, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.86 (95%CI: 0.77, 0.92) and 0.63 (95%CI: 0.52, 0.73); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.58 (95%CI: 0.55, 0.61) and 0.84 (95%CI: 0.81, 0.86); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.92 (95%CI: 0.81, 1.00) and 0.86 (95%CI: 0.67, 1.00) (P = 0.592). CONCLUSION: The Ranson score was an applicable tool for predicting severity and prognosis of AP patients with reliable diagnostic accuracy in resource and time-limited settings. Future large-scale studies are needed to verify the findings.

Impact of nutritional support routes on mortality in acute pancreatitis: A network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Nutritional administration in acute pancreatitis (AP) management has sparked widespread discussion, yet contradictory mortality results across meta-analyses necessitate clarification. The optimal nutritional route in AP remains uncertain. Therefore, this study aimed to compare mortality among nutritional administration routes in patients with AP using consistency model. METHODS: This study searched four major databases for relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Two authors independently extracted and checked data and quality. Network meta-analysis was conducted for estimating risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) based on random-effects model. Subgroup analyses accounted for AP severity and nutrition support initiation. RESULTS: A meticulous search yielded 1185 references, with 30 records meeting inclusion criteria from 27 RCTs (n = 1594). Pooled analyses showed the mortality risk reduction associated with nasogastric (NG) (RR = 0.34; 95%CI: 0.16-0.73) and nasojejunal (NJ) feeding (RR = 0.46; 95%CI: 0.25-0.84) in comparison to nil per os. Similarly, NG (RR = 0.45; 95%CI: 0.24-0.83) and NJ (RR = 0.60; 95%CI: 0.40-0.90) feeding also showed lower mortality risk than total parenteral nutrition. Subgroup analyses, stratified by severity, supported these findings. Notably, the timing of nutritional support initiation emerged as a significant factor, with NJ feeding demonstrating notable mortality reduction within 24 and 48 h, particularly in severe cases. CONCLUSION: For severe AP, both NG and NJ feeding appear optimal, with variations in initiation timings. NG feeding does not appear to merit recommendation within the initial 24 h, whereas NJ feeding is advisable within the corresponding timeframe following admission. These findings offer valuable insights for optimizing nutritional interventions in AP.

Association between serum creatinine to albumin ratio and short- and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis admitted to the intensive care unit: a retrospective analysis based on the MIMIC-IV database.

Background: Serum creatinine (Cr) and albumin (Alb) are important predictors of mortality in individuals with various diseases, including acute pancreatitis (AP). However, most previous studies have only examined the relationship between single Cr or Alb levels and the prognosis of patients with AP. To our knowledge, the association between short- and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with AP and the blood creatinine to albumin ratio (CAR) has not been investigated. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the short- and long-term relationships between CAR and all-cause mortality in patients with AP. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study utilizing data from the Medical Information Market for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database. The study involved analyzing various mortality variables and obtaining CAR values at the time of admission. The X-tile software was used to determine the optimal threshold for the CAR. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival curves and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the relationship between CAR and both short- and long-term all-cause mortality. The predictive power, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) of CAR for short- and long-term mortality in patients with AP after hospital admission were investigated using Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis. Additionally, subgroup analyses were conducted. Results: A total of 520 participants were included in this study. The CAR ideal threshold, determined by X-tile software, was 0.446. The Cox proportional hazards model revealed an independent association between CAR≥0.446 and all-cause mortality at 7-day (d), 14-d, 21-d, 28-d, 90-d, and 1-year (y) before and after adjustment for confounders. K-M survival curves showed that patients with CAR≥0.446 had lower survival rates at 7-d, 14-d, 21-d, 28-d, 90-d, and 1-y. Additionally, CAR demonstrated superior performance, with higher AUC values than Cr, Alb, serum total calcium, Glasgow Coma Scale, Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome score, and Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment score at 7-d, 14-d, 21-d, 28-d, 90-d, and 1-y intervals. Subgroup analyses showed that CAR did not interact with a majority of subgroups. Conclusion: The CAR can serve as an independent predictor for short- and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with AP. This study enhances our understanding of the association between serum-based biomarkers and the prognosis of patients with AP.

Prolonged elevated heart rate and 90-Day mortality in acute pancreatitis.

Prolonged elevated heart rate (peHR) is recognized as a risk factor for poor prognosis among critically ill patients. However, there is currently a lack of studies investigating the association between peHR and patients with acute pancreatitis. Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database was used to identify patients with acute pancreatitis. PeHR was defined as a heart rate exceeding 100 beats per minute for at least 11 out of 12 consecutive hours. Cox regression analysis was used to assess the association between peHR and the 90-Day mortality. A total of 364 patients (48.9%) experienced a peHR episode. The 90-day mortality was 25%. PeHR is an independent risk factor for 90-day mortality (HR, 1.98; 95% CI 1.53-2.56; P < 0.001). KM survival curves exhibited a significant decrease in the survival rate at 90 days among patients who experienced a peHR episode (P < 0.001, 84.5% vs. 65.1%). We revealed a significant association of peHR with decreased survival in a large cohort of ICU patients with acute pancreatitis.

Identifying novel acute pancreatitis sub-phenotypes using total serum calcium trajectories.

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis (AP) has heterogeneous clinical features, and identifying clinically relevant sub-phenotypes is useful. We aimed to identify novel sub-phenotypes in hospitalized AP patients using longitudinal total serum calcium (TSC) trajectories. METHODS: AP patients had at least two TSC measurements during the first 24 h of hospitalization in the US-based critical care database (Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III (MIMIC-III) and MIMIC-IV were included. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify calcium trajectory phenotypes, and patient characteristics and treatment outcomes were compared between the phenotypes. RESULTS: A total of 4518 admissions were included in the analysis. Four TSC trajectory groups were identified: "Very low TSC, slow resolvers" (n = 65; 1.4% of the cohort); "Moderately low TSC" (n = 559; 12.4%); "Stable normal-calcium" (n = 3875; 85.8%); and "Fluctuating high TSC" (n = 19; 0.4%). The "Very low TSC, slow resolvers" had the lowest initial, maximum, minimum, and mean TSC, and highest SOFA score, creatinine and glucose level. In contrast, the "Stable normal-calcium" had the fewest ICU admission, antibiotic use, intubation and renal replace treatment. In adjusted analysis, significantly higher in-hospital mortality was noted among "Very low TSC, slow resolvers" (odds ratio [OR], 7.2; 95% CI, 3.7 to 14.0), "moderately low TSC" (OR, 5.0; 95% CI, 3.8 to 6.7), and "Fluctuating high TSC" (OR, 5.6; 95% CI, 1.5 to 20.6) compared with the "Stable normal-calcium" group. CONCLUSIONS: We identified four novel sub-phenotypes of patients with AP, with significant variability in clinical outcomes. Not only the absolute TSC levels but also their trajectories were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality.

Addressing long-term mortality risk in patients undergoing total pancreatectomy with islet autotransplant (TPIAT): causes of death and risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Total pancreatectomy with islet autotransplant (TPIAT) can improve quality of life for individuals with pancreatitis but creates health risks including diabetes, exocrine insufficiency, altered intestinal anatomy and function, and asplenia. METHODS: We studied survival and causes of death for 693 patients who underwent TPIAT between 2001 and 2020, using the National Death Index with medical records to ascertain survival after TPIAT, causes of mortality, and risk factors for death. We used Kaplan Meier curves to examine overall survival, and Cox regression and competing-risks methods to determine pre-TPIAT factors associated with all-cause and cause-specific post-TPIAT mortality. RESULTS: Mean age at TPIAT was 33.6 years (SD = 15.1). Overall survival was 93.1% (95% CI 91.2, 95.1%) 5 years after surgery, 85.2% (95% CI 82.0, 88.6%) at 10 years, and 76.2% (95% CI 70.8, 82.3%) at 15 years. Fifty-three of 89 deaths were possibly related to TPIAT; causes included chronic gastrointestinal complications, malnutrition, diabetes, liver failure, and infection/sepsis. In multivariable models, younger age, longer disease duration, and more recent TPIAT were associated with lower mortality. CONCLUSIONS: For patients undergoing TPIAT to treat painful pancreatitis, careful long-term management of comorbidities introduced by TPIAT may reduce risk for common causes of mortality.

Impact of comorbidities on hospital mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis: a population-based study of 110,021 patients.

BACKGROUND: The impact of pre-existing comorbidities on acute pancreatitis (AP) mortality is not clearly defined. Our study aims to determine the trend in AP hospital mortality and the role of comorbidities as a predictor of hospital mortality. METHODS: We analyzed patients aged ≥ 18 years hospitalized with AP diagnosis between 2016 and 2019. The data have been extracted from the Spanish National Hospital Discharge Database of the Spanish Ministry of Health. We performed a univariate and multivariable analysis of the association of age, sex, and comorbidities with hospital mortality in patients with AP. The role of the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices as predictors of mortality was evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 110,021 patients diagnosed with AP were hospitalized during the analyzed period. Hospital mortality was 3.8%, with a progressive decrease observed in the years evaluated. In multivariable analysis, age ≥ 65 years (OR: 4.11, p < 0.001), heart disease (OR: 1.73, p < 0.001), renal disease (OR: 1.99, p < 0.001), moderate-severe liver disease (OR: 2.86, p < 0.001), peripheral vascular disease (OR: 1.43, p < 0.001), and cerebrovascular disease (OR: 1.63, p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for mortality. The Charlson > 1.5 (OR: 2.03, p < 0.001) and Elixhauser > 1.5 (OR: 2.71, p < 0.001) comorbidity indices were also independently associated with mortality, and ROC curve analysis showed that they are useful for predicting hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Advanced age, heart disease, renal disease, moderate-severe liver disease, peripheral vascular disease, and cerebrovascular disease before admission were independently associated with hospital mortality. The Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices are useful for predicting hospital mortality in AP patients.

Comparative effectiveness of cardiovascular, renal and safety outcomes of second-line antidiabetic drugs use in people with type 2 diabetes: A systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

AIMS: To compare the cardiovascular, renal and safety outcomes of second-line glucose-lowering agents used in the management of people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL were searched from inception to 13 July 2021 for randomised controlled trials comparing second-line glucose lowering therapies with placebo, standard care or one another. Primary outcomes included cardiovascular and renal outcomes. Secondary outcomes were non-cardiovascular adverse events. Risk ratios (RRs) and corresponding confidence intervals (CI) or credible intervals (CrI) were reported within pairwise and network meta-analysis. The quality of evidence was evaluated using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation) criteria. Number needed to treat (NNT) and number needed (NNH) to harm were calculated at 5 years using incidence rates and RRs. PROSPERO (CRD42020168322). RESULTS: We included 38 trials from seven classes of glucose-lowering therapies. Both sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP1RA) showed moderate to high certainty in reducing risk of 3-point major adverse cardiovascular events, 3P-MACE (network estimates: SGLT2i [RR 0.90; 95% CrI 0.84-0.96; NNT, 59], GLP1RA [RR 0.88; 95% CrI 0.83-0.93; NNT, 50]), cardiovascular death, all-cause mortality, renal composite outcome and macroalbuminuria. SGLT2i also showed high certainty in reducing risk of hospitalization for heart failure (hHF), ESRD, acute kidney injury, doubling in serum creatinine and decline in eGFR. GLP1RA were associated with lower risk of stroke (high certainty) while glitazone use was associated with an increased risk of hHF (very low certainty). The risk of developing ESRD was lower with the use of sulphonylureas (low certainty). For adverse events, sulphonylureas and insulin were associated with increased hypoglycaemic events (very low to low certainty), while GLP1RA increased the risk of gastrointestinal side effects leading to treatment discontinuation (low certainty). DPP-4i increased risk of acute pancreatitis (low certainty). SGLT2i were associated with increased risk of genital infection, volume depletion (high certainty), amputation and ketoacidosis (moderate certainty). Risk of fracture was increased with the use of glitazones (moderate certainty). CONCLUSIONS: SGLT2i and GLP1RA were associated with lower risk for different cardiorenal end points, when used as an adjunct to metformin in people with type 2 diabetes. Additionally, SGLT2i demonstrated benefits in reducing risk for surrogate end points in kidney disease progression. Safety outcomes differ among the available pharmacotherapies.

Etiology, case fatality, recurrence, and severity in pediatric acute pancreatitis: a meta-analysis of 48 studies.

For children, there are very few published reviews focusing on severe acute pancreatitis (AP). PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Scopus, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang data, EBSCO, and Cochrane Library were searched from inception until March 2020. Meta-regression analyses were used to estimate the etiology, case fatality, recurrence, and severity of pediatric AP in different regions (North America, Asia, South America, Europe, and Oceania). Pooled data from 47 papers (48 studies) found that main causes of pediatric AP were gallstones in Asia; trauma in Oceania; and idiopathic in Europe, North America, and South America. The case-fatality rate (CFR) of pediatric AP is 4.7% (North America), 6.2% (Europe), 2.4% (Asia), 3.1% (South America), and 7.4% (Oceania). The incidence rates of recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) in children who have had an episode of acute pancreatitis in North American, Asia, and Europe were 15.3, 13.1, and 13.8%, respectively. The incidence of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) in different regions was 30.3% (Oceania), 29.2% (South America), 20.8% (Europe), 15.8% (Asia), and 13.7% (North America). It suggests that physicians should notice the etiology of pediatric AP for the initial assessment, diagnosis, prediction of relapse, and appropriate treatment at a later stage. IMPACT: It indicates the etiology of pediatric acute pancreatitis for the initial assessment, diagnosis, and prediction of relapse. Main causes of pediatric AP were gallstones in Asia; trauma in Oceania; and idiopathic in Europe, North America, and South America. The case-fatality rate of pediatric AP is diverse worldwide. It suggests that physicians noticed the etiology of pediatric AP for the initial assessment, diagnosis, prediction of relapse, and appropriate treatment at a later stage.

Perinatal outcomes in pregnancies complicated by acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVES: Acute pancreatitis is a rare condition that can be associated with significant complications. The objective of this study is to evaluate the maternal and newborn outcomes associated with acute pancreatitis in pregnancy. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project-Nationwide Inpatient Sample from the United States was performed. All pregnant patients with acute pancreatitis were identified using International Classification of Disease-9 coding from 1999 to 2015. The effect of acute pancreatitis on maternal and neonatal outcomes in pregnancy was evaluated using multivariate logistic regression, while adjusting for baseline maternal characteristics. RESULTS: From 1999 to 2015, there were a total of 13,815,919 women who gave birth. There were a total of 14,258 admissions of women diagnosed with acute pancreatitis, including 1,756 who delivered during their admission and 12,502 women who were admitted in the antepartum period and did not deliver during the same admission. Acute pancreatitis was associated with increased risk of prematurity, OR 3.78 (95% CI 3.38-4.22), preeclampsia, 3.81(3.33-4.36), postpartum hemorrhage, 1.90(1.55-2.33), maternal death, 9.15(6.05-13.85), and fetal demise, 2.60(1.86-3.62) among women diagnosed with acute pancreatitis. Among women with acute pancreatitis, delivery was associated with increased risk of requiring transfusions, 6.06(4.87-7.54), developing venous thromboembolisms, 2.77(1.83-4.18), acute respiratory failure, 3.66(2.73-4.91), and disseminated intravascular coagulation, 8.12(4.12-16.03). CONCLUSIONS: Acute pancreatitis in pregnancy is associated with severe complications, such as maternal and fetal death. Understanding the risk factors that may lead to these complications can help prevent or minimize them through close fetal and maternal monitoring.