High-income ZIP codes in New York City demonstrate higher case rates during off-peak COVID-19 waves.

Introduction: Our study explores how New York City (NYC) communities of various socioeconomic strata were uniquely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: New York City ZIP codes were stratified into three bins by median income: high-income, middle-income, and low-income. Case, hospitalization, and death rates obtained from NYCHealth were compared for the period between March 2020 and April 2022. Results: COVID-19 transmission rates among high-income populations during off-peak waves were higher than transmission rates among low-income populations. Hospitalization rates among low-income populations were higher during off-peak waves despite a lower transmission rate. Death rates during both off-peak and peak waves were higher for low-income ZIP codes. Discussion: This study presents evidence that while high-income areas had higher transmission rates during off-peak periods, low-income areas suffered greater adverse outcomes in terms of hospitalization and death rates. The importance of this study is that it focuses on the social inequalities that were amplified by the pandemic.

Prevalence and genotype distribution of HPV infection from Hangzhou of Zhejiang Province pre- and during COVID-19 pandemic.

Limited data exist on HPV prevalence and genotyping during the COVID-19 pandemic. A total of 130,243 samples from 129, 652 women and 591 men who visited the First People's Hospital of Linping District between 2016 and 2022 were recruited. HPV genotypes were detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification and nucleic acid molecular hybridization. Then the prevalence characteristics of HPV genotypes and trends in HPV infection rates from 2016 to 2022 were analyzed. Results showed that among the study population, the overall prevalence of HPV infection was 15.29%, with 11.25% having single HPV infections and 4.04% having multiple HPV infections, consistent with previous findings. HPV genotypes exhibited similar distribution patterns in both male and female groups, with HPV16, HPV52, HPV58, HPV18, and HPV39 being the most prevalent. Age-related analysis unveiled a bimodal pattern in HPV prevalence, with peaks in infection rates observed in individuals below 20 and those aged 61-65 years. Comparing the pre- and during COVID-19 periods revealed significant disparities in HPV infections, with variations in specific HPV genotypes, including 16, 18, 35, 45, 52, 58, 59, and 68. This study provides valuable insights into the prevalence, distribution, and epidemiological characteristics of HPV infections in a large population. It also highlights the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HPV trends.

Modeling correlated uncertainties in stochastic compartmental models.

We consider compartmental models of communicable disease with uncertain contact rates. Stochastic fluctuations are often added to the contact rate to account for uncertainties. White noise, which is the typical choice for the fluctuations, leads to significant underestimation of the disease severity. Here, starting from reasonable assumptions on the social behavior of individuals, we model the contacts as a Markov process which takes into account the temporal correlations present in human social activities. Consequently, we show that the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process is the correct model for the stochastic contact rate. We demonstrate the implication of our model on two examples: a Susceptibles-Infected-Susceptibles (SIS) model and a Susceptibles-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model of the COVID-19 pandemic and compare the results to the available US data from the Johns Hopkins University database. In particular, we observe that both compartmental models with white noise uncertainties undergo transitions that lead to the systematic underestimation of the spread of the disease. In contrast, modeling the contact rate with the OU process significantly hinders such unrealistic noise-induced transitions. For the SIS model, we derive its stationary probability density analytically, for both white and correlated noise. This allows us to give a complete description of the model's asymptotic behavior as a function of its bifurcation parameters, i.e., the basic reproduction number, noise intensity, and correlation time. For the SEIR model, where the probability density is not available in closed form, we study the transitions using Monte Carlo simulations. Our modeling approach can be used to quantify uncertain parameters in a broad range of biological systems.

The influence of cross-border mobility on the COVID-19 epidemic in Nordic countries.

Restrictions of cross-border mobility are typically used to prevent an emerging disease from entering a country in order to slow down its spread. However, such interventions can come with a significant societal cost and should thus be based on careful analysis and quantitative understanding on their effects. To this end, we model the influence of cross-border mobility on the spread of COVID-19 during 2020 in the neighbouring Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We investigate the immediate impact of cross-border travel on disease spread and employ counterfactual scenarios to explore the cumulative effects of introducing additional infected individuals into a population during the ongoing epidemic. Our results indicate that the effect of inter-country mobility on epidemic growth is non-negligible essentially when there is sizeable mobility from a high prevalence country or countries to a low prevalence one. Our findings underscore the critical importance of accurate data and models on both epidemic progression and travel patterns in informing decisions related to inter-country mobility restrictions.

Mathematical Assessment of the Role of Human Behavior Changes on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics in the United States.

The COVID-19 pandemic has not only presented a major global public health and socio-economic crisis, but has also significantly impacted human behavior towards adherence (or lack thereof) to public health intervention and mitigation measures implemented in communities worldwide. This study is based on the use of mathematical modeling approaches to assess the extent to which SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics is impacted by population-level changes of human behavior due to factors such as (a) the severity of transmission (such as disease-induced mortality and level of symptomatic transmission), (b) fatigue due to the implementation of mitigation interventions measures (e.g., lockdowns) over a long (extended) period of time, (c) social peer-pressure, among others. A novel behavior-epidemiology model, which takes the form of a deterministic system of nonlinear differential equations, is developed and fitted using observed cumulative SARS-CoV-2 mortality data during the first wave in the United States. The model fits the observed data, as well as makes a more accurate prediction of the observed daily SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the first wave (March 2020-June 2020), in comparison to the equivalent model which does not explicitly account for changes in human behavior. This study suggests that, as more newly-infected individuals become asymptomatically-infectious, the overall level of positive behavior change can be expected to significantly decrease (while new cases may rise, particularly if asymptomatic individuals have higher contact rate, in comparison to symptomatic individuals).

Mortalidad en pacientes hospitalizados por COVID-19 durante la primera ola en una institución de tercer nivel de Neuquén / Mortality in Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19 during the First Wave in a Tertiary Care Institution in Neuquén

Introducción: En diciembre de 2019, se detectó un brote de enfermedad por un nuevo coronavirus que evolucionó en pandemia con severa morbilidad respiratoria y mortali- dad. Los sistemas sanitarios debieron enfrentar una cantidad inesperada de pacientes con insuficiencia respiratoria. En Argentina, las medidas de cuarentena y control sani - tario retrasaron el primer pico de la pandemia y ofrecieron tiempo para preparar el sis- tema de salud con infraestructura, personal y protocolos basados en la mejor evidencia disponible en el momento. En una institución de tercer nivel de Neuquén, Argentina, se desarrolló un protocolo de atención para enfrentar la pandemia adaptado con la evo- lución de la mejor evidencia y evaluaciones periódicas de la mortalidad hospitalaria. Métodos: Estudio de cohorte observacional para evaluar la evolución de pacientes con COVID-19 con los protocolos asistenciales por la mortalidad hospitalaria global y al día 28 en la Clínica Pasteur de Neuquén en 2020. Resultados: Este informe describe los 501 pacientes diagnosticados hasta el 31 de di- ciembre de 2020. La mortalidad general fue del 16,6% (83/501) y del 12,2% (61/501) al día 28 de admisión. En los 139 (27,7%) pacientes con ventilación mecánica, la mortali- dad general y a los 28 días fue de 37,4% (52/139) y 28,1% (38/139) fallecieron, respec- tivamente. Los factores de riesgo identificados fueron edad, comorbilidades y altos re- querimientos de oxígeno al ingreso. Conclusión: La mortalidad observada en los pacientes hospitalizados en nuestra insti- tución en la primera ola de la pandemia COVID-19 fue similar a los informes internacio- nales y menor que la publicada en Argentina para el mismo período.

Introduction: In December 2019, an outbreak of disease due to a new coronavirus was detected that evolved into a pandemic with severe respiratory morbidity and mortality. Health systems had to face an unexpected number of patients with respiratory failure. In Argentina, quarantine and health control measures delayed the first peak of the pan - demic and offered time to prepare the health system with infrastructure, personnel and protocols based on the best evidence available at the time. In a third level institution of Neuquén, Argentina, a care protocol was developed to confront the pandemic adapted by evolving best evidence and periodic evaluations of hospital mortality. Methods: Observational cohort study to evaluate the evolution of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 with care protocols in terms of overall hospital mortality and at day 28 at the Pasteur Clinic in Neuquén in 2020. Results: This report describes the 501 patients diagnosed until December 31, 2020. Mortality was 16.6% (83/501) and 12.2% (61/501) on day 28 of admission. Among the 139 (27.7%) patients with mechanical ventilation, overall mortality and at 28 days it was 37.4% (52/139) and 28.1% (38/139), respectively. The risk factors identified were age, comorbidities and high oxygen requirements on admission. Conclusion: The mortality observed in patients hospitalized in our institution during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic was similar to international reports and lower than other publications in Argentina for the same period.

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

Real-time forecasting of COVID-19-related hospital strain in France using a non-Markovian mechanistic model.

Projects such as the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub publish forecasts on the national level for new deaths, new cases, and hospital admissions, but not direct measurements of hospital strain like critical care bed occupancy at the sub-national level, which is of particular interest to health professionals for planning purposes. We present a sub-national French framework for forecasting hospital strain based on a non-Markovian compartmental model, its associated online visualisation tool and a retrospective evaluation of the real-time forecasts it provided from January to December 2021 by comparing to three baselines derived from standard statistical forecasting methods (a naive model, auto-regression, and an ensemble of exponential smoothing and ARIMA). In terms of median absolute error for forecasting critical care unit occupancy at the two-week horizon, our model only outperformed the naive baseline for 4 out of 14 geographical units and underperformed compared to the ensemble baseline for 5 of them at the 90% confidence level (n = 38). However, for the same level at the 4 week horizon, our model was never statistically outperformed for any unit despite outperforming the baselines 10 times spanning 7 out of 14 geographical units. This implies modest forecasting utility for longer horizons which may justify the application of non-Markovian compartmental models in the context of hospital-strain surveillance for future pandemics.

Markovian Approach for Exploring Competitive Diseases with Heterogeneity-Evidence from COVID-19 and Influenza in China.

Due to the complex interactions between multiple infectious diseases, the spreading of diseases in human bodies can vary when people are exposed to multiple sources of infection at the same time. Typically, there is heterogeneity in individuals' responses to diseases, and the transmission routes of different diseases also vary. Therefore, this paper proposes an SIS disease spreading model with individual heterogeneity and transmission route heterogeneity under the simultaneous action of two competitive infectious diseases. We derive the theoretical epidemic spreading threshold using quenched mean-field theory and perform numerical analysis under the Markovian method. Numerical results confirm the reliability of the theoretical threshold and show the inhibitory effect of the proportion of fully competitive individuals on epidemic spreading. The results also show that the diversity of disease transmission routes promotes disease spreading, and this effect gradually weakens when the epidemic spreading rate is high enough. Finally, we find a negative correlation between the theoretical spreading threshold and the average degree of the network. We demonstrate the practical application of the model by comparing simulation outputs to temporal trends of two competitive infectious diseases, COVID-19 and seasonal influenza in China.

Investigation of epidemiological and clinical characteristics of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 during the second pandemic of COVID-19 in Chengdu, China.

Objective: This study investigated the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infected patients during the second pandemic of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease of 2019) in Chengdu, China. Furthermore, the differences between first infection and re-infection cases were also compared and analyzed to provide evidence for better prevention and control of SARS-CoV-2 re-infection. Methods: An anonymous questionnaire survey was conducted using an online platform (wjx.cn) between May 20, 2023 to September 12, 2023. Results: This investigation included 62.94% females and 32.97% of them were 18-30 years old. Furthermore, 7.19-17.18% of the participants either did not receive vaccination at all or only received full vaccination, respectively. Moreover, 577 (57.64%) participants were exposed to cluster infection. The clinical manifestations of these patients were mainly mild to moderate; 78.18% of participants had a fever for 1-3 days, while 37.84% indicated a full course of disease for 4-6 days. In addition, 40.66% of the participants had re-infection and 72.97% indicated their first infection approximately five months before. The clinical symptoms of the first SARS-CoV-2 infection were moderate to severe, while re-infection indicated mild to moderate symptoms (the severity of symptoms other than diarrhea and conjunctival congestion had statistically significant differences) (p < 0.05). Moreover, 70.53 and 59.21% of first and re-infection cases had fever durations of 3-5 and 0-2 days, respectively. Whereas 47.91 and 46.40% of first and re-infection cases had a disease course of 7-9 and 4-6 days. Conclusion: The SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals in Chengdu, China, during the second pandemic of COVID-19 had mild clinical symptoms and a short course of disease. Furthermore, compared with the first infection, re-infection cases had mild symptoms, low incidences of complications, short fever duration, and course of disease.

The impact of health inequity on spatial variation of COVID-19 transmission in England.

Considerable spatial heterogeneity has been observed in COVID-19 transmission across administrative areas of England throughout the pandemic. This study investigates what drives these differences. We constructed a probabilistic case count model for 306 administrative areas of England across 95 weeks, fit using a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework. We incorporate the impact of acquired immunity, of spatial exportation of cases, and 16 spatially-varying socio-economic, socio-demographic, health, and mobility variables. Model comparison assesses the relative contributions of these respective mechanisms. We find that spatially-varying and time-varying differences in week-to-week transmission were definitively associated with differences in: time spent at home, variant-of-concern proportion, and adult social care funding. However, model comparison demonstrates that the impact of these terms is negligible compared to the role of spatial exportation between administrative areas. While these results confirm the impact of some, but not all, static measures of spatially-varying inequity in England, our work corroborates the finding that observed differences in disease transmission during the pandemic were predominantly driven by underlying epidemiological factors rather than aggregated metrics of demography and health inequity between areas. Further work is required to assess how health inequity more broadly contributes to these epidemiological factors.

[Analysis Of Data Quality/Completeness In Covid-19 Cases: Why A Digital Integrated Data Collection Is Also Necessary For Pandemic Control]. / Analyse zur Datenqualität/-vollständigkeit bei COVID-19-Fällen: Warum eine digitale integrierte Datenerfassung auch zur Pandemiebekämpfung notwendig ist.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological data on the corona pandemic collected in the public health sector in Germany have been less useful in estimating vaccine effectiveness and clinical outcomes compared to other countries. METHODS: In this retrospective observational study, we examined the completeness of selected own data collected during the pandemic. Information on the important parameters of hospitalization, vaccination status and risk factors for severe course and death over different periods were considered and evaluated descriptively. The data are discussed in the extended context of required digital strategies in Germany. RESULTS: From January 1, 2022 to June 30, 2022, we found 126,920 administrative procedures related to COVID-19. With regard to the data on hospitalization, in 19,749 cases, it was stated "No", in 1,990 cases "Yes" and in 105,181 cases (83+%) "Not collected" or "Not ascertainable". Concerning vaccinations, only a small proportion of procedures contained information on the type of vaccine (11.1+%), number of vaccinations (4.4+%) and date of the last vaccination (2.1+%). The completeness of data on chronic conditions/risk factors in COVID-19-related deaths decreased over four consecutive periods between 2020 and 2022 as case numbers increased. CONCLUSION: Future strategies taking into account meaningfulness and completeness of data must comprise modern technical solutions with digital data collection on infections without putting the principle of data protection at risk.

Exceso de mortalidad durante la pandemia de COVID-19 en Ecuador. Análisis espacio temporal del exceso de mortalidad durante la pandemia de COVID-19 en Ecuador / Excess Mortality during the COVID- 19 Pandemic in Ecuador. Spatiotemporal Analysis of Excess Mortality During the Covid-19 Pandemic in Ecuador

Introducción: La pandemia de COVID-19 causó una elevada mortalidad en el mundo y en el Ecuador. Esta investigación se propuso analizar el exceso de mortalidad debido a la pandemia de COVID-19 en Ecuador. Método: Estudio observacional, longitudinal, cuantitativo y descriptivo. Clasificado como estudio ecológico en el campo de la epidemiología. Este estudio se centra en la medición del exceso de mortalidad durante los años 2020, 2021 y 2022, tomando como período base el promedio de defunciones ocurridas en el intervalo de 2015 a 2019. Resultados: Ecuador, en el período de enero 2020 a octubre 2022, acumuló un exceso total de muertes de 98.915. En el año 2020, el exceso de mortalidad fue mayor a 46.374, siendo el mes de abril el valor más alto de 15.484. En el año 2021, el exceso de muertes fue de 35.859, siendo abril el mes con mayor exceso de 7.330. Y el año 2022 el exceso de mortalidad fue de 16.682, el mes con mayor exceso fue enero con 4.204. Conclusión: Se evidenció un subregistro de defunciones, así como variaciones temporales y geográficas en el exceso de mortalidad. La provincia con mayor número de fallecidos y exceso de mortalidad fue Guayas seguida de Pichincha. Los resultados proporcionan un análisis del panorama durante la emergencia sanitaria, destacando la importancia de evaluar la capacidad de respuesta de los sistemas de salud en momentos de crisis y la necesidad imperativa de implementar medidas correctivas para el futuro.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant mortality in the world and in Ecuador. This research aimed to analyze the excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Ecuador. Method: An observational, longitudinal, quantitative and descriptive study, classified as an ecological study in the field of epidemiology. This study focuses on measuring excess mortality during the years 2020, 2021 and 2022, using the average number of deaths that occurred in the period from 2015 to 2019 as the baseline. Results: From January 2020 to October 2022, Ecuador accumulated a total excess of deaths of 98,915. In 2020, the excess mortality was higher at 46,374, with the highest value occurring in April at 15,484. In 2021, the excess deaths amounted to 35,859, with April having the highest excess of 7,330. In 2022, the excess mortality was 16,682, with January recording the highest excess at 4,204. Conclusion: Evidence of underreporting of deaths, as well as temporal and geographi-cal variations in excess mortality, was observed. The province with the highest number of deaths and excess mortality was Guayas, followed by Pichincha. The results provide an analysis of the situation during the health emergency, emphasizing the importance of evaluating the healthcare system's capacity to respond during times of crisis and the imperative need to implement corrective measures for the future.

Increase of healthcare-onset Clostridioides difficile infection in adult population since SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: A retrospective cohort study in a tertiary care hospital from 2019 to 2022.

OBJECTIVES: The aim was to assess the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on the prevalence, relative incidence (RI), incidence density (ID), ratio of rate incidence (RRI), rate of incidence density (RID), and relative risks (RR) of healthcare-onset Clostridioides difficile infection (HO-CDI) as well as its correlation with the antibiotic consumption. METHODS: Demographic and analytical data of adult patients exhibiting diarrhoea and testing positive for C. difficile were systematically collected from a tertiary care hospital in Madrid (Spain). The periods analysed included: prepandemic (P0), first pandemic-year (P1), and second pandemic-year (P2). We compared global prevalence, RI of HO-CDI per 1,000-admissions, ID of HO-CDI per 10,000-patients-days, RRI, RID, and RR. Antibiotic consumption was obtained by number of defined daily dose per 100 patient-days. RESULTS: In P0, the prevalence of HO-CDI was 7.4% (IC95%: 6.2-8.7); in P1, it increased to 8.7% (IC95%: 7.4-10.1) (p = 0.2), and in P2, it continued to increase to 9.2% (IC95%: 8-10.6) (p < 0.05). During P1, the RRI was 1.5 and RID was 1.4. However, during P2 there was an increase in RRI to 1.6 and RID to 1.6. The RR also reflected the increase in HO-CDI: at P1, the probability of developing HO-CDI was 1.5 times (IC95%: 1.2-1.9) higher than P0, while at P2, this probability increased to 1.6 times (IC95%: 1.3-2.1). There was an increase in prevalence, RI, ID, RR, RRI, and RID during the two postpandemic periods respect to the prepandemic period. During P2, this increase was greater than the P1. Meropenem showed a statistically significant difference increased consumption (p < 0.05) during the pandemic period. Oral vancomycin HO-CDI treatment showed an increase during the period of study (p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of infection control measures during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic did not appear to alleviate the burden of HO-CDI. The escalation in HO-CDI cases did not exhibit a correlation with overall antibiotic consumption, except for meropenem.

Examining Excess Mortality Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic for Renters Threatened With Eviction.

Importance: Residential evictions may have increased excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Objective: To estimate excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic for renters who received eviction filings (threatened renters). Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used an excess mortality framework. Mortality based on linked eviction and death records from 2020 through 2021 was compared with projected mortality estimated from similar records from 2010 through 2016. Data from court records between January 1, 2020, and August 31, 2021, were collected via the Eviction Lab's Eviction Tracking System. Similar data from court records between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2016, also collected by the Eviction Lab, were used to estimate projected mortality during the pandemic. We also constructed 2 comparison groups: all individuals living in the study area and a subsample of those individuals living in high-poverty, high-filing tracts. Exposures: Eviction filing. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality in a given month. The difference between observed mortality and projected mortality was used as a measure of excess mortality associated with the pandemic. Results: The cohort of threatened renters during the pandemic period consisted of 282 000 individuals (median age, 36 years [IQR, 28-47]). Eviction filings were 44.7% lower than expected during the study period. The composition of threatened renters by race, ethnicity, sex, and socioeconomic characteristics during the pandemic was comparable with the prepandemic composition. Expected cumulative age-standardized mortality among threatened renters during this 20-month period of the pandemic was 116.5 (95% CI, 104.0-130.3) per 100 000 person-months, and observed mortality was 238.6 (95% CI, 230.8-246.3) per 100 000 person-months or 106% higher than expected. In contrast, expected mortality for the population living in similar neighborhoods was 114.6 (95% CI, 112.1-116.8) per 100 000 person-months, and observed mortality was 142.8 (95% CI, 140.2-145.3) per 100 000 person-months or 25% higher than expected. In the general population across the study area, expected mortality was 83.5 (95% CI, 83.3-83.8) per 100 000 person-months, and observed mortality was 91.6 (95% CI, 91.4-91.8) per 100 000 person-months or 9% higher than expected. The pandemic produced positive excess mortality ratios across all age groups among threatened renters. Conclusions and Relevance: Renters who received eviction filings experienced substantial excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Non-COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran: a longitudinal assessment of 41 million people in 2019-2022.

BACKGROUND: During a COVID-19 pandemic, it is imperative to investigate the outcomes of all non-COVID-19 diseases. This study determines hospital admissions and mortality rates related to non-COVID-19 diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic among 41 million Iranians. METHOD: This nationwide retrospective study used data from the Iran Health Insurance Organization. From September 23, 2019, to Feb 19, 2022, there were four study periods: pre-pandemic (Sept 23-Feb 19, 2020), first peak (Mar 20-Apr 19, 2020), first year (Feb 20, 2020-Feb 18, 2021), and the second year (Feb 19, 2021-Feb 19, 2022) following the pandemic. Cause-specific hospital admission and in-hospital mortality are the main outcomes analyzed based on age and sex. Negative binomial regression was used to estimate the monthly adjusted Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) to compare hospital admission rates in aggregated data. A logistic regression was used to estimate the monthly adjusted in-hospital mortality Odds Ratio (OR) for different pandemic periods. RESULTS: During the study there were 6,522,114 non-COVID-19 hospital admissions and 139,679 deaths. Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, the standardized hospital admission rate per million person-month was 7115.19, which decreased to 2856.35 during the first peak (IRR 0.40, [0.25-0.64]). In-hospital mortality also increased from 20.20 to 31.99 (OR 2.05, [1.97-2.13]). All age and sex groups had decreased admission rates, except for females at productive ages. Two years after the COVID-19 outbreak, the non-COVID-19 hospital admission rate (IRR 1.25, [1.13-1.40]) and mortality rate (OR 1.05, [1.04-1.07]) increased compared to the rates before the pandemic. The respiratory disease admission rate decreased in the first (IRR 0.23, [0.17-0.31]) and second years (IRR 0.35, [0.26-0.47] compared to the rate before the pandemic. There was a significant reduction in hospitalizations for pneumonia (IRR 0.30, [0.21-0.42]), influenza (IRR 0.04, [0.03-0.06]) and COPD (IRR 0.39, [0.23-0.65]) during the second year. There was a significant and continuous rise in the hematological admission rate during the study, reaching 186.99 per million person-month in the second year, reflecting an IRR of 2.84 [2.42-3.33] compared to the pre-pandemic period. The mortality rates of mental disorders (OR 2.15, [1.65-2.78]) and musculoskeletal (OR 1.48, [1.20-1.82), nervous system (OR 1.42, [1.26-1.60]), metabolic (OR 1.99, [1.80-2.19]) and circulatory diseases (OR 1.35, [1.31-1.39]) increased in the second year compare to pre-pandemic. Myocardial infarction (OR 1.33, [1.19-1.49]), heart failure (OR 1.59, [1.35-1.87]) and stroke (OR 1.35, [1.24-1.47]) showed an increase in mortality rates without changes in hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: In the era of COVID-19, the changes seem to have had a long-term effect on non-COVID-19 diseases. Countries should prepare for similar crises in the future to ensure medical services are not suspended.