Geographic information system and information visualization capacity building: Successful polio eradication and current and future challenges in the COVID-19 era for the World Health Organization's African region.

Despite a half-century-long global eradication effort, polio continues to have a devastating impact on individuals and communities worldwide, especially in low-income countries affected by conflict or geographic barriers to immunization programs. In response, the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) employs disease surveillance and vaccination campaigns coordinated through the WHO Regional Office for Africa (AFRO) Geographic Information System (GIS) Centre. Established in 2017, the AFRO GIS Centre played a key role in the eradication of wild-type polioviruses (WPVs) in 2020, but the COVID-19 pandemic, emergence of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses, and transmission of WPV1 from Central Asia have led to a resurgence of polio in Sub-Saharan Africa. The AFRO GIS comprises a set of mobile device or cloud-based tools for geospatial data collection, analysis, and visualization. Using tools such as Auto-Visual Acute Flaccid Paralysis Detection and Reporting, electronic surveillance, and Integrated Supportive Supervision, GIS personnel collect polio case numbers and locations, track field worker activities, follow the movements of nomadic populations vulnerable to polio and other diseases, and determine needs for further healthcare deployments. The system is location specific and operates in real time, enabling the AFRO GIS to promptly target its responses to polio, COVID-19, Ebola virus disease, and other public health crises and natural disasters. The present review describes the components of the AFRO GIS and how the AFRO GIS Centre coordinated on-the-ground polio eradication efforts to help secure Africa's certification as WPV free. It also examines current and prospective challenges regarding other disease outbreaks in the COVID-19 era and how the AFRO GIS Centre is addressing these ongoing public health needs.

Monitoring the VDPV2 outbreak in Egypt during 2020-2021 highlights the crucial role of environmental surveillance and boosting immunization in combating Poliovirus.

BACKGROUND: Poliovirus is a highly infectious enterovirus (EV) that primarily affects children and can lead to lifelong paralysis or even death. Vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) are a great threat since they are derived from the attenuated virus in the Oral Poliovirus Vaccine (OPV) and can mutate to a more virulent form. The purpose of this study was to identify VDPV serotype 2 through the year 2020-2021 via surveillance of sewage samples collected from different localities and governorates in Egypt and stool specimens from Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) cases. Both were collected through the national poliovirus surveillance system and according to the guidelines recommended by the WHO. METHODS: A total of 1266 sewage samples and 3241 stool samples from January 2020 to December 2021 were investigated in the lab according to World Health Organization (WHO) protocol for the presence of Polioviruses by cell culture, molecular identification of positive isolates on L20B cell line was carried out using real-time polymerase chain reactions (RT-PCR). Any positive isolates for Poliovirus type 2 and isolates suspected of Vaccine Derived Poliovirus Type 1 and type 3 screened by (VDPV1) or Vaccine Poliovirus Type 3 (VDPV3) assay in RT-PCR were referred for VP1 genetic sequencing. RESULTS: The outbreak was caused by circulating VDPV2 (cVDPV2) strains started in January 2021. By the end of February 2021, a total of 11 cVDPV2s were detected in sewage samples from six governorates confirming the outbreak situation. One additional cVDPV2 was detected later in the sewage sample from Qena (June 2021). The first and only re-emergence of VDPV2 in stool samples during the outbreak was in contact with Luxor in June 2021. By November 2021, a total of 80 VDPVs were detected. The Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population (MOHP), in collaboration with the WHO, responded quickly by launching two massive vaccination campaigns targeting children under the age of five. Additionally, surveillance systems were strengthened to detect new cases and prevent further spread of the virus. CONCLUSION: The continued threat of poliovirus and VDPVs requires ongoing efforts to prevent their emergence and spread. Strategies such as improving immunization coverage, using genetically stable vaccines, and establishing surveillance systems are critical to achieving global eradication of poliovirus and efficient monitoring of VDPVs outbreaks.

Decline in Vaccination Coverage against Poliomyelitis in the municipalities of Vale do Paraíba (SP) under a spatial approach.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze vaccination coverage (VC) for polio in the municipalities of Vale do Paraíba in the State of São Paulo. METHODS: This is an ecological and exploratory study of VC in 35 municipalities using a spatial approach; VC data were obtained from the IT Department of the Unified Health System (DATASUS), for the years 2015 and 2019, and categorized into Low (VC<95%) and ideal (≥95%). Information was obtained on gross domestic product (GDP), professional rates and number of basic health units (UBS) and maternal data such as age, marital status (MS) and education. Univariate and bivariate Moran indices were estimated for the years 2015 and 2019, and thematic maps were created for CV values. RESULTS: The average VC values were 107.7%±27.2 in 2015, and 94.2%±27.8 in 2019 (p<0.05). In 2015 vs. 2019, there were 10 vs. 25 municipalities in the Low category. In 2015, the variables VC, number of UBS, age, education, and MS were spatially correlated, but in 2019 only maternal age and education were spatially correlated. The bivariate Moran was significant and negative for VC in 2019 with maternal education. There was an increase in municipalities with worsening VC values. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial approach identified a decrease in polio vaccination coverage in the studied region.

Optimum study of fractional polio model with exponential decay kernel.

This study introduces a fractional order model to investigate the dynamics of polio disease spread, focusing on its significance, unique results, and conclusions. We emphasize the importance of understanding polio transmission dynamics and propose a novel approach using a fractional order model with an exponential decay kernel. Through rigorous analysis, including existence and stability assessment applying the Caputo Fabrizio fractional operator, we derive key insights into the disease dynamics. Our findings reveal distinct disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and endemic equilibrium (EE) points, shedding light on the disease's stability. Furthermore, graphical representations and numerical simulations demonstrate the behavior of the disease under various parameter values, enhancing our understanding of polio transmission dynamics. In conclusion, this study offers valuable insights into the spread of polio and contributes to the broader understanding of infectious disease dynamics.

Increasing intensity of enterovirus outbreaks projected with climate change.

Pathogens of the enterovirus genus, including poliovirus and coxsackieviruses, typically circulate in the summer months suggesting a possible positive association between warmer weather and transmission. Here we evaluate the environmental and demographic drivers of enterovirus transmission, as well as the implications of climate change for future enterovirus circulation. We leverage pre-vaccination era data on polio in the US as well as data on two enterovirus A serotypes in China and Japan that are known to cause hand, foot, and mouth disease. Using mechanistic modeling and statistical approaches, we find that enterovirus transmission appears positively correlated with temperature although demographic factors, particularly the timing of school semesters, remain important. We use temperature projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to simulate future outbreaks under late 21st-century climate change for Chinese provinces. We find that outbreak size increases with climate change on average, though results differ across climate models depending on the degree of wintertime warming. In the worst-case scenario, we project peak outbreaks in some locations could increase by up to 40%.

The evolution, facilitators, barriers, and additional activities of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance platform in polio eradication programme Bangladesh: a mixed-method study.

BACKGROUND: The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) helped develop the standard acute flaccid paralysis surveillance (AFP) system worldwide, including, knowledge, expertise, technical assistance, and trained personnel. AFP surveillance can complement any disease surveillance system. OBJECTIVE: This study outlines AFP surveillance evolution in Bangladesh, its success and challenging factors, and its potential to facilitate other health goals. METHODS: This mixed-method study includes a grey literature review, survey, and key informant interviews (KIIs). We collected grey literature from online websites and paper documentation from GPEI stakeholders. Online and in-person surveys were conducted in six divisions of Bangladesh, including Dhaka, Rajshahi, Rangpur, Chittagong, Sylhet, and Khulna, to map tacit knowledge ideas, approaches, and experiences. We also conducted KIIs, and Data were then combined on focused emerging themes, including the history, challenges, and successes of AFP surveillance programme. RESULTS: According to the grey literature review, survey, and KII, AFP surveillance successfully contributed to decreasing polio in Bangladesh. The major facilitating factors were multi-sectoral collaboration, Surveillance Immunization Medical Officer (SIMO) network activities, social environment, community-based surveillance, and promising political commitment. On the other hand, high population growth, hard-to-reach areas, people residing in risky zones, and polio transition planning were significant challenges. Bangladesh is also utilizing these polio surveillance assets for other vaccine-preventable diseases. CONCLUSION: As the world is so close to eradicating polio, the knowledge, and other assets of the AFP surveillance, could be used for other health programmes. In addition, its strengths can be leveraged for combating new and emerging diseases.

Main findings: The research found that Bangladesh has achieved a world-standard surveillance system, with facilitating factors including multi-sectoral collaboration, GPEI partners, and political and community support. However, high population growth, hard-to-reach areas and people, and polio transition planning were found to be challenges.Added knowledge: In addition, Bangladesh is now utilizing these polio surveillance assets to monitor other vaccine-preventable diseases.Global health impact for policy and action: Since polio is still a threat to some LMICs, the knowledge gained from AFP surveillance of Bangladesh could assist those countries in eradicating the cases of polio from the earth and serve VPDs and other health programmes as well.

Persistent Transmission of Circulating Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus - Somalia, January 2017-March 2024.

Since the launch of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative in 1988, substantial progress has been made in the interruption of wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission worldwide: global eradication of WPV types 2 and 3 were certified in 2015 and 2019, respectively, and endemic transmission of WPV type 1 continues only in Afghanistan and Pakistan. After the synchronized global withdrawal of all serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs) in 2016, widespread outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) have occurred, which are linked to areas with low population immunity to poliovirus. Officials in Somalia have detected ongoing cVDPV2 transmission since 2017. Polio vaccination coverage and surveillance data for Somalia were reviewed to assess this persistent transmission. During January 2017-March 2024, officials in Somalia detected 39 cVDPV2 cases in 14 of 20 regions, and transmission has spread to neighboring Ethiopia and Kenya. Since January 2021, 28 supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) targeting cVDPV2 were conducted in Somalia. Some parts of the country are security-compromised and inaccessible for vaccination campaigns. Among 1,921 children with nonpolio acute flaccid paralysis, 231 (12%) had not received OPV doses through routine immunization or SIAs, 95% of whom were from the South-Central region, and 60% of whom lived in inaccessible districts. Enhancing humanitarian negotiation measures in Somalia to enable vaccination of children in security-compromised areas and strengthening campaign quality in accessible areas will help interrupt cVDPV2 transmission.

Wild poliovirus makes comeback in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

2024 target of ending all transmission will likely be missed.

Development of a Consolidated Health Facility Masterlist Using Data From Polio Electronic Surveillance in the World Health Organization African Region.

Geospatial data reporting from surveillance and immunization efforts is a key aspect of the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Polio Eradication Initiative in Africa. These activities are coordinated through the WHO Regional Office for Africa Geographic Information Systems Centre. To ensure the accuracy of field-collected data, the WHO Regional Office for Africa Geographic Information Systems Centre has developed mobile phone apps such as electronic surveillance (eSURV) and integrated supportive supervision (ISS) geospatial data collection programs. While eSURV and ISS have played a vital role in efforts to eradicate polio and control other communicable diseases in Africa, disease surveillance efforts have been hampered by incomplete and inaccurate listings of health care sites throughout the continent. To address this shortcoming, data compiled from eSURV and ISS are being used to develop, update, and validate a Health Facility master list for the WHO African region that contains comprehensive listings of the names, locations, and types of health facilities in each member state. The WHO and Ministry of Health field officers are responsible for documenting and transmitting the relevant geospatial location information regarding health facilities and traditional medicine sites using the eSURV and ISS form; this information is then used to update the Health Facility master list and is also made available to national ministries of health to update their respective health facility lists. This consolidation of health facility information into a single registry is expected to improve disease surveillance and facilitate epidemiologic research for the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, as well as aid public health efforts directed at other diseases across the African continent. This review examines active surveillance using eSURV at the district, country, and regional levels, highlighting its role in supporting polio surveillance and immunization efforts, as well as its potential to serve as a fundamental basis for broader public health initiatives and research throughout Africa.

Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis in oral polio vaccine recipients: disproportionality analysis using VAERS and systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) is a rare adverse event of oral poliovirus vaccines (OPV), particularly affecting immunodeficient individuals. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This study aimed to (1) Assess the association between OPV and VAPP using Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) database (2) Outline patient characteristics and risk factors associated with the occurrence of VAPP in OPV recipients through a systematic review of case reports and case series. A disproportionality analysis was conducted using the data from VAERS, encompassing adverse events reported from 1990 till February 2023. Additionally, we conducted a systematic review of case reports and case series using PubMed, Scopus, and Embase databases. RESULTS: The VAERS data revealed 130 VAPP reports among 1,739,903 OPV linked adverse events, with year 2010 reporting the strongest association. The systematic review of 37 studies highlighted VAPP occurrence within 2 months to 4 years post-vaccination, typically with acute flaccid paralysis. Immunodeficiency and perianal abscess emerged as major risk factors. Out of the 37 included studies, 27 showed consistent causal association of VAPP with OPV using WHO-AEFI causality assessment tool. CONCLUSION: The study emphasized the seriousness of VAPP and highlights its association with OPV, identifying immunodeficiency as a prominent contributor to VAPP manifestation.

Evolution of global polio eradication strategies: targets, vaccines, and supplemental immunization activities (SIAs).

BACKGROUND: Despite multiple revisions of targets and timelines in polio eradication plans since 1988, including changes in supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) that increase immunity above routine immunization (RI) coverage, poliovirus transmission continues as of 2024. METHODS: We reviewed polio eradication plans and Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) annual reports and budgets to characterize key phases of polio eradication, the evolution of poliovirus vaccines, and the role of SIAs. We used polio epidemiology to provide context for successes and failures and updated prior modeling to show the contribution of SIAs in achieving and maintaining low polio incidence compared to expected incidence for the counterfactual of RI only. RESULTS: We identified multiple phases of polio eradication that included shifts in targets and timelines and the introduction of different poliovirus vaccines, which influenced polio epidemiology. Notable shifts occurred in GPEI investments in SIAs since 2001, particularly since 2016. Modeling results suggest that SIAs play(ed) a key role in increasing (and maintaining) high population immunity to levels required to eradicate poliovirus transmission globally. CONCLUSIONS: Shifts in polio eradication strategy and poliovirus vaccine usage in SIAs provide important context for understanding polio epidemiology, delayed achievement of polio eradication milestones, and complexity of the polio endgame.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Worldwide, January 2022-December 2023.

In 1988, poliomyelitis (polio) was targeted for eradication. Global efforts have led to the eradication of two of the three wild poliovirus (WPV) serotypes (types 2 and 3), with only WPV type 1 (WPV1) remaining endemic, and only in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This report describes global polio immunization, surveillance activities, and poliovirus epidemiology during January 2022-December 2023, using data current as of April 10, 2024. In 2023, Afghanistan and Pakistan identified 12 total WPV1 polio cases, compared with 22 in 2022. WPV1 transmission was detected through systematic testing for poliovirus in sewage samples (environmental surveillance) in 13 provinces in Afghanistan and Pakistan, compared with seven provinces in 2022. The number of polio cases caused by circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs; circulating vaccine virus strains that have reverted to neurovirulence) decreased from 881 in 2022 to 524 in 2023; cVDPV outbreaks (defined as either a cVDPV case with evidence of circulation or at least two positive environmental surveillance isolates) occurred in 32 countries in 2023, including eight that did not experience a cVDPV outbreak in 2022. Despite reductions in paralytic polio cases from 2022, cVDPV cases and WPV1 cases (in countries with endemic transmission) were more geographically widespread in 2023. Renewed efforts to vaccinate persistently missed children in countries and territories where WPV1 transmission is endemic, strengthen routine immunization programs in countries at high risk for poliovirus transmission, and provide more effective cVDPV outbreak responses are necessary to further progress toward global polio eradication.

Surveillance To Track Progress Toward Polio Eradication - Worldwide, 2022-2023.

The reliable and timely detection of poliovirus cases through surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP), supplemented by environmental surveillance of sewage samples, is a critical component of the polio eradication program. Since 1988, the number of polio cases caused by wild poliovirus (WPV) has declined by >99.9%, and eradication of WPV serotypes 2 and 3 has been certified; only serotype 1 (WPV1) continues to circulate, and transmission remains endemic in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This surveillance update evaluated indicators from AFP surveillance, environmental surveillance for polioviruses, and Global Polio Laboratory Network performance data provided by 28 priority countries for the program during 2022-2023. No WPV1 cases have been detected outside of Afghanistan and Pakistan since August 2022, when an importation into Malawi and Mozambique resulted in an outbreak during 2021-2022. During 2022-2023, among 28 priority countries, 20 (71.4%) met national AFP surveillance indicator targets, and the number of environmental surveillance sites increased. However, low national rates of reported AFP cases in priority countries in 2023 might have resulted from surveillance reporting lags; substantial national and subnational AFP surveillance gaps persist. Maintaining high-quality surveillance is critical to achieving the goal of global polio eradication. Monitoring surveillance indicators is important to identifying gaps and guiding surveillance-strengthening activities, particularly in countries at high risk for poliovirus circulation.