Enhanced lymphangiogenesis in the left lateral segment of a biopsied liver during portoenterostomy for biliary atresia.

PURPOSE: We investigate the histopathology of the portal vein branches and lymphatic vessels to elucidate the mechanism of atrophy of the left lateral segment (LLS) of the liver in biliary atresia (BA). METHODS: LLS and right anterior segment (RAS) liver biopsy samples obtained during Kasai portoenterostomy (KPE) from ten consecutive patients with BA underwent histopathological investigation of the portal vein and lymphatic vessels using double chromogenic immunostaining for CD31/D2-40 and the hepatitis-like findings (HLF) score. Each parameter and clinical data were compared between prognostic groups. RESULTS: HLF scores in the LLS were always higher than those in the RAS. There was no difference in portal vein and lymphatic vascular morphology, whereas the number of lymphatic vessels was correlated with the fibrotic area of all specimen areas. Left-to-right ratio of the number of lymphatic vessels was correlated with the age at KPE (r = 0.784, p = 0.007) and the pre-KPE CRP value (r = 0.723, p = 0.018). CONCLUSIONS: Lymphangiogenesis on the LLS compared to the RAS was significantly correlated with the degree of fibrosis and the age at KPE. Further investigation is warranted to clarify the causes of LLS atrophy and lymphangiogenesis relevant to immune dysregulation.

The Assessment and Management of Biliary Atresia in Hawai'i, 2009-2023.

Although biliary atresia (BA) is a rare neonatal disorder, it remains the leading cause of pediatric end-stage liver disease. Early diagnosis of BA and treatment with the Kasai procedure can significantly reduce the need for pediatric liver transplant. Current data suggests that performing the Kasai procedure at 30-45 days of life is associated with longer native liver survival rates and reduction of the need for liver transplant. The incidence rate of BA in the state of Hawai'i is nearly double the incidence rate in the continental US. International studies have demonstrated that screening programs for BA reduce the age at diagnosis and treatment. However, there has been no statewide analysis on the ages at diagnosis or at Kasai, nor does a statewide screening program for BA exist. The purpose of this study is to review the age of diagnosis and treatment of BA to determine if the current practice in Hawai'i is in line with the published data. A retrospective chart review of all patients diagnosed with BA at the state's primary children's hospital was performed (2009-2023) and 19 patients who underwent the Kasai procedure were identified. The mean age at diagnosis is 71.4 days (n=19) and the mean age at Kasai procedure is 72.0 days (n=19). Both the average age at diagnosis and treatment for BA in Hawai'i is significantly higher than published data suggesting best outcomes at 30-45 days of life. This review suggests that the implementation of a statewide screening program for BA in Hawai'i is warranted.

Incidence and outcome of biliary atresia in Shanghai, China from 2015 to 2016: a cohort study.

Demographic characteristics and clinical data of all newly diagnosed biliary atresia patients in Shanghai were collected from 1 January 2015 to 31 October 2016. The total number of live births was 377 420 during the study period, and the incidence of biliary atresia in Shanghai was 10.86 per 100 000 (95% CI 7.8 to 17.74), with 62.9% and 45.7% cases retaining native liver survival at 2 and 5 years after Kasai procedure, respectively. Implementation of systematic screening measures for biliary atresia in China is needed.

Portal vein hypoplasia is present in patients with biliary atresia at the time of diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: In patients with biliary atresia (BA), severe portal hypertension (HTN) develops even with successful bile flow restoration, suggesting an intrinsic factor driving portal HTN independent from bile obstruction. We hypothesize that patients with BA have abnormal portal vein (PV) development, leading to PV hypoplasia. METHODS: In this observational cohort study, we enrolled patients who were referred to a tertiary center from 2017 to 2021 to rule out BA. Newborns who underwent computed tomography angiogram as a clinical routine before intraoperative cholangiogram, and laparoscopic Kasai hepatoportoenterostomy. The diameter of the PV and hepatic artery (HA) were compared to the degree of liver fibrosis in the wedge biopsies. The jaundice clearance, native liver survival, and clinical portal hypertensive events, including ascites development and intestinal bleeding, were assessed. RESULTS: 47 newborns with cholestasis were included in the cohort; 35 were diagnosed with BA. The patients with BA had a smaller median PV diameter (4.3 vs. 5.1 mm; p < 0.001) and larger median HA diameter (1.4 vs. 1.2 mm; p < 0.05) compared to the patients with other forms of cholestasis. The median PV and HA diameter did not correlate with the degree of liver fibrosis. Among 35 patients with BA, 29 patients (82.9%) achieved jaundice clearance, and 23 patients (65.7%) were alive with their native liver at two years of age. Seven patients (20%) developed intestinal bleeding, and seven patients (20%) developed ascites, with one overlapping patient. CONCLUSION: PV hypoplasia is present in patients with BA independent of liver fibrosis at the time of diagnosis.

Eicosapentaenoic acid administration ameliorates the progression of liver fibrosis after laparoscopic Kasai portoenterostomy.

PURPOSE: Biliary atresia (BA) poses a persistent challenge characterized by ongoing liver inflammation and subsequent fibrosis even after the clearance of jaundice (COJ). This study aimed to evaluate the therapeutic potential of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) in alleviating liver inflammation and limiting fibrosis during the post-COJ phase of BA. METHODS: Among the BA patients undergoing laparoscopic Kasai portoenterostomy (lapKP) between December 2016 and October 2021, EPA (20-40 mg/kg/day) was administered orally to those whose parents consented. The study included patients from January 2014 to October 2021, classifying them into two groups: EPA-treated (Group E) and untreated (Group N). Their liver fibrosis and clinical course at 1 and 2 years post-lapKP were compared. RESULTS: Group E consisted of 25 patients, while Group N comprised 32 patients. Twenty-one patients in Group E and 25 patients in Group N achieved COJ (p = 0.74). Among jaundice-free patients at 1 and 2 years post-lapKP, Group E exhibited significantly lower M2BPGi levels and platelet counts, and Group E showed a significant reduction in Aminotransferase-to-Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) at 2 years post-lapKP. CONCLUSION: Although EPA administration did not improve COJ, it attenuated the progression of liver fibrosis during the 2 years following lapKP in jaundice-free patients. (200/200Words).

Timing of Kasai Procedure for Biliary Atresia: An Analysis of the Pediatric National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Database.

INTRODUCTION: Biliary atresia is a rare liver disease of unknown etiology affecting approximately 1 in 10,000 children. This disease initially presents as inflammatory obstruction of bile ducts leading to cholestasis and eventually fibrosis of hepatic tissue. Affected patients are ideally treated early with portoenterostomy (Kasai procedure) as age at surgery is an important prognostic factor for native liver survival and need for liver transplant. This study aimed to evaluate the age at which patients in the United States are receiving this procedure. METHODS: The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Pediatric database was used to identify patients between 2012 and 2021 who underwent a primary procedure of portoenterostomy. The age at time of surgery and perioperative analysis was performed. The data underwent simple descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Eight hundred twenty four patients were identified who underwent Kasai procedure. Four hundred seventy four (58.2%) were female with the predominant race being White (49.5%). The median age at surgery was 57 d old (interquartile range 41-71). Readmission and reoperation rates within 30 d were 30% and 15.2%, respectively. There were no deaths within 30 d. CONCLUSIONS: Within the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, the median age of pediatric patients undergoing Kasai procedure for biliary atresia in the United States exceeds the goal of 45 d. Further studies are needed to investigate factors that may affect time to diagnosis and time to Kasai procedure.

Cholestasis after Kasai operation predicts portal hypertension in native liver survivors of biliary atresia: a multicenter study.

PURPOSE: This study evaluated portal hypertension (PHT) and its predictors among native liver survivors (NLS) of biliary atresia (BA) after Kasai portoenterostomy (KPE). METHODS: This was a multicenter study using prospectively collected data. The subjects were patients who remained transplant-free for 5 years after KPE. Their status of PHT was evaluated and variables that predicted PHT were determined by regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: Six centers from East Asia participated in this study and 320 subjects with KPE between 1980 to 2018 were analyzed. The mean follow-up period was 10.6 ± 6.2 years. At the 5th year after KPE, PHT was found in 37.8% of the subjects (n = 121). Patients with KPE done before day 41 of life had the lowest percentage of PHT compared to operation at older age. At 12 months after KPE, PHT + ve subjects had a higher bilirubin level (27.1 ± 11.7 vs 12.3 ± 7.9 µmol/L, p = 0.000) and persistent jaundice conferred a higher risk for PHT (OR = 12.9 [9.2-15.4], p = 0.000). ROC analysis demonstrated that a bilirubin level above 38 µmol/L at 12 months after KPE predicted PHT development (sensitivity: 78%, specificity: 60%, AUROC: 0.75). CONCLUSIONS: In BA, early KPE protects against the development of PHT among NLSs. Patients with persistent cholestasis at one year after KPE are at a higher risk of this complication. They should receive a more vigilant follow-up. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III.

Biliary atresia.

Biliary atresia (BA) is a progressive inflammatory fibrosclerosing disease of the biliary system and a major cause of neonatal cholestasis. It affects 1:5,000-20,000 live births, with the highest incidence in Asia. The pathogenesis is still unknown, but emerging research suggests a role for ciliary dysfunction, redox stress and hypoxia. The study of the underlying mechanisms can be conceptualized along the likely prenatal timing of an initial insult and the distinction between the injury and prenatal and postnatal responses to injury. Although still speculative, these emerging concepts, new diagnostic tools and early diagnosis might enable neoadjuvant therapy (possibly aimed at oxidative stress) before a Kasai portoenterostomy (KPE). This is particularly important, as timely KPE restores bile flow in only 50-75% of patients of whom many subsequently develop cholangitis, portal hypertension and progressive fibrosis; 60-75% of patients require liver transplantation by the age of 18 years. Early diagnosis, multidisciplinary management, centralization of surgery and optimized interventions for complications after KPE lead to better survival. Postoperative corticosteroid use has shown benefits, whereas the role of other adjuvant therapies remains to be evaluated. Continued research to better understand disease mechanisms is necessary to develop innovative treatments, including adjuvant therapies targeting the immune response, regenerative medicine approaches and new clinical tests to improve patient outcomes.

Bile lakes in patients with biliary atresia who presented with jaundice-free native liver survival indicating the risk of subsequent liver transplantation due to various factors.

PURPOSE: The prognostic factors of subsequent liver transplantation (LT) in patients with biliary atresia (BA) who presented with jaundice-free native liver survival were investigated. METHODS: This study retrospectively reviewed patients who underwent portoenterostomy (PE) for BA. Patients with jaundice-free native liver survival at 1 year postoperatively were divided into the autologous liver survivor and liver transplant recipient groups. Peri- and postoperative data were compared between the two groups. RESULTS: Among 97 patients with BA, 29 who received LT within 1 year after PE were excluded from the analysis. Further, 48 patients currently living with native liver and 20 who received LT after 1 year postoperatively were compared. Bile lake (BL) was the strongest risk factor of LT. The risk score was 2.38 ∗ B L s c o r e + 0.00466 ∗ T B A , and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.83. Patients with BL and those without significantly differed in terms of the native liver survival rate. Patients with BL who presented with not only cholangitis but also gastrointestinal hemorrhage and hepatopulmonary syndrome received LT. CONCLUSION: BL can cause different pathologies. Moreover, it is an evident risk factor of subsequent LT in patients with BA who are living with native liver at 1 year after PE.

The systemic immune-inflammation index at kasai portoenterostomy: related to clinical outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index (SII), known as an easy, economical and useful marker, correlates with the balance of inflammation and immune response. However, the usefulness of SII in biliary atresia (BA) remains unclear. Therefore, we evaluated the relationship of SII level and postoperative clinical outcomes of BA. METHODS: Retrospective review of 168 patients with BA was conducted with assessments of demographic information, histological findings, laboratory parameters, and clinical outcomes. The LASSO logistic regression analysis was established using the "glmnet" software package to explore the influencing factors related to native liver survival time. Numerical variables were dichotomized based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and Youden index yielding the best performance of prediction. R software was used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: Overall, the 24 month native liver survival rate was 43.5% (73 cases) after Kasai portoenterostomy. LASSO logistic regression analysis show that preoperative malnutrition (OR = 0.032, 95%CI 0.001-0.424), gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT, OR = 0.994, 95%CI 0.987-0.998), lymphocyte count (LY, OR = 2.426, 95%CI 1.467-4.604), SII (OR = 0.977, 95%CI 0.960-0.989), and liver fibrosis grading (LFG, reference: Grade 1, Grade 3, OR = 0.076, 95%CI 0.007-0.614) were the independent influencing factors for 24 month native liver survival. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of SII level (0.919) was larger than that of preoperative malnutrition (0.690), LFG (0.759), GGT (0.747), and Ly (0.773). A SII < 140.09 was found to be a significant marker in the prediction of 24-month native liver survival, with 90.41% sensitivity and 93.68% specificity. Furthermore, the rates of 24-month native liver survival (33.1% vs. 72.7%), jaundice clearance (46.8% vs. 75.0%), and good liver function recovery (46.8% vs. 65.9%) were lower in the SII ≥ 140.09 group than that in the SII < 140.09 group (all P < 0.05), but there was no difference in the occurrence of cholangitis (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Preoperative malnutrition, GGT, Ly, SII, and LFG were independent influencing factors for postoperative 24-month native liver survival of BA. The SII level, as a routine haematological marker, has better universality and simplicity and is related to clinical outcomes after Kasai portoenterostomy.

Primary Liver Transplant in Biliary Atresia: The Case for and Against.

The role of liver transplantation as a primary procedure in biliary atresia has been argued over for at least 40 years, indeed since the coming of age of safe liver transplantation during the 1980s. Yet, it is not a common option in most series (usually ≤5%) and typically reserved for those with late presentations (arguably >100 days) with established cirrhosis. This review presents the pros and cons of primary liver transplant. The pros are based upon the observation that at best a Kasai portoenterostomy (KPE) is simply palliative in most, and at worse has no effect whatsoever on restoration of bile flow and is therefore pointless. Set against this are the cons: there is a dearth of prognostic tests (clinical, biochemical, or histological) at the time of presentation which may predict inevitable failure; the possibility of long-term native liver survival to adulthood in a proportion (albeit a minority); and the implied increased need for donor organs suitable for infants - a stressor for an already overstressed system. Improving results from KPE in terms of increasing the proportions clearing their jaundice and minimizing the effects of chronic liver fibrosis and cirrhosis would surely limit the siren calls for primary transplants but the key must be better discrimination at presentation with the use of biomarkers (circulatory or histological, individually or together) to enable better decision making.

Distinct effects of racial and socioeconomic disparities on biliary atresia diagnosis and outcome.

OBJECTIVES: To identify and distinguish between racial and socioeconomic disparities in age at hepatology care, diagnosis, access to surgical therapy, and liver transplant-free survival in patients with biliary atresia (BA). METHODS: Single-center retrospective cohort study of 69 BA patients from 2010 to 2021. Patients were grouped into White and non-White cohorts. The socioeconomic milieu was analyzed utilizing neighborhood deprivation index, a census tract-based calculation of six socioeconomic variables. The primary outcomes of this study were timing of the first hepatology encounter, surgical treatment with hepatic portoenterostomy (HPE), and survival with native liver (SNL) at 2 years. RESULTS: Patients were 55% male and 72% White. White patients were referred at a median of 34 days (interquartile range [IQR]: 17-65) vs. 67 days (IQR: 42-133; p = 0.001) in non-White patients. White infants were more likely to undergo HPE (42/50 patients; 84%) compared to non-White (10/19; 53%), odds ratio (OR) 4.73 (95% confidence interval: 1.46-15.31; p = 0.01). Independent of race, patients exposed to increased neighborhood-level deprivation were less likely to receive HPE (OR: 0.49, p = 0.04) and achieve SNL (OR: 0.54, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Racial and socioeconomic disparities are independently associated with timely BA diagnosis, access to surgical treatment, and transplant-free survival. Public health approaches to improve screening for pathologic jaundice in infants of diverse racial backgrounds and to test and implement interventions for socioeconomically at-risk families are needed.

A Pilot Study for Biliary Atresia Diagnosis: Fluorescent Imaging of Indocyanine Green in Stool.

BACKGROUND: Biliary atresia is the most common cause of obstructive jaundice in infants and conventional cholangiography is the current diagnostic gold standard. Fluorescent cholangiography with indocyanine green can enhance biliary tree visualization during surgery because it is exclusively excreted into the bile ducts and eventually into the intestine. Therefore, we hypothesized that indocyanine green presence in stool could confirm bile duct patency in infants. METHODS: A prospective single center cohort study was performed on infants (age ≤ 12 months) with and without jaundice after obtaining IRB approval. Indocyanine green was administered intravenously (0.1 mg/kg). Soiled diapers collected post-injection were imaged for fluorescence. RESULTS: After indocyanine green administration, fluorescence was detected in soiled diapers for control patients (n = 4, x = 14 h22 m post-injection) and jaundiced patients without biliary atresia (n = 11, x = 13 h28 m post-injection). For biliary atresia patients (n = 7), post-injection soiled diapers before and after Kasai portoenterostomy were collected. Fluorescence was not detected in stool from 6 of 7 biliary atresia patients. As a test, indocyanine green detection in stool was 97% accurate for assessing biliary patency. CONCLUSION: Fluorescent Imaging for Indocyanine Green (FIInd Green) in stool is a fast and accurate approach to assess biliary patency non-invasively in infants. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III.

"Where Did This Come From?": Antibiotic Prophylaxis in Biliary Atresia After Kasai Procedure.

For patients with Biliary atresia, antibiotic prophylaxis after Kasai portoenterostomy is a common practice. Societal guidelines often cite one reference as supportive evidence for this practice. In this paper, we go back to review the quality of this evidence and suggest more research is required to demonstrate the efficacy of antibiotic prophylaxis in this population.

Pre-operative Serum Albumin Predicts Native Liver Survival in Biliary Atresia.

BACKGROUND: To predict native liver survival (NLS) after Kasai portoenterostomy (KP) for biliary atresia (BA) using pre-operative clinical data. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Pre-operative data were collected from 29 patients with BA who underwent KP at our department between 1989 and 2017 and were analysed including serum albumin, bilirubin, prothrombin time-international normalised ratio, body height, body weight, age at KP, paediatric end-stage liver disease score calculated using the pre-operative data and the period of NLS. RESULTS: The 10-year NLS rate of all patients was 51%. A multivariate analysis revealed that among all factors, the pre-KP serum albumin level was the only independent predictor of NLS ( P = 0.04, hazard ratio = 0.269, 95% confidence interval = 0.077-0.934). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for NLS, determined using pre-KP serum albumin was 0.760 and 3.75 mg/dl was selected as the cut-off value. There was a significant difference in NLS between patients with high (≥3.8 mg/dl) and low (≤3.7 mg/dl) pre-KP serum albumin (90.0% vs. 31.5%, P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Decreased pre-KP serum albumin may reflect not only functional impairment of the liver, but also the inflammatory process, which is hypothesized to occur during its advancement. The pre-KP serum albumin level may be a good prognostic factor for NLS in post-KP BA patients.

[Choledochal cysts: surgical treatment in newborns and infants]. / Kisty kholedokha: osobennosti khirurgicheskogo lecheniya u detei pervykh trekh mesyatsev zhizni.

OBJECTIVE: To improve postoperative outcomes in newborns and infants with choledochal cysts and to determine the indications for surgery. MATERIAL AND METHODS: There were 13 children aged 0-3 months with choledochal cyst who underwent reconstructive surgery between 2019 and 2023. In all children, choledochal cyst was associated with cholestasis. Acholic stool was observed in almost half of the group (n=7). All children underwent cyst resection and Roux-en-Y hepaticoenterostomy. RESULTS: Symptoms of cholestasis regressed in all patients. Mean surgery time was 128±27 min. There were no complications. Enteral feeding was started after 1-2 postoperative days, abdominal drainage was removed after 6.2±1.6 days. Mean length of hospital-stay was 16±3.7 days. Adequate bile outflow is one of the main principles. For this purpose, anastomosis with intact tissues of hepatic duct should be as wide as possible. Roux-en-Y loop should be at least 40-60 cm to prevent postoperative cholangitis. CONCLUSION: Drug-resistant cholestasis syndrome and complicated choledochal cysts (cyst rupture, bile peritonitis) are indications for surgical treatment in newborns and infants. When forming Roux-en-Y hepaticoenterostomy, surgeon should totally excise abnormal tissues of the biliary tract to prevent delayed malignant transformation.

Awareness, referral and age at Kasai surgery for biliary atresia in Europe: A survey of the Quality-of-Care Task Force of ESPGHAN.

OBJECTIVES: To identify infants with biliary atresia (BA), European Society of Paediatric Gastroenteroloy and Nutrition (ESPGHAN)/North American Society of Pediatric Gastroenteroloy and Nutrition (NASPGHAN) guidelines recommend measurement of conjugated/direct bilirubin in infants with prolonged jaundice and using a stool colour card (SCC). The 'Quality of Care' Task Force of ESPGHAN performed two surveys to assess current case finding for BA and age at Kasai portoenterostomy (KPE). METHODS: The first survey approached 26 European hepatology centres to report age at referral and age at KPE of all infants diagnosed with BA from 2015 to 2019. The second survey targeted paediatricians in France to assess awareness and compliance with the recently introduced SCC. RESULTS: Data from 785 patients with BA from 18 centres in 15 countries revealed a mean age at referral to tertiary centre of 55 days (median 53, IQR 48-60) (n = 636). The mean age at KPE was 61 days (median 60; IQR 54-67) (n = 772). For 6% of patients, cirrhosis was too advanced for surgery. Of 392 paediatricians answering the second survey, 53% felt familiar with the target diseases, 80% correctly identified cholestasis and 59% always inquired about the infant's stool colour. If abnormal, 93% would order blood tests and 85% call for advice. The SCC screening was considered helpful for case finding and improving knowledge of cholestatic diseases by 62% and 45% paediatricians, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Referral of infants for KPE remains late, indicating low adherence to search for cholestasis in icteric infants by age 2-3 weeks. Knowledge and structures need improvement to allow earlier guideline conform case finding, diagnosis and therapy.

Effect of medium chain triglycerides enriched formula on growth of biliary atresia patients after Kasai portoenterostomy.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Biliary atresia (BA) is the most common cause of neonatal cholestasis, negatively affecting nutritional status, growth, and development. It is the most frequent paediatric indication for liver transplantation. The Kasai portoenterostomy (KPE) operation is an effective procedure with favourable outcomes when performed before two months of age. The present study aimed to assess the nutritional status of patients with biliary atresia who underwent the Kasai operation and to evaluate the effectiveness of nutritional counselling using medium-chain triglyceride (MCT) formulas and proper supplementation on their nutritional status, growth, and vitamin D levels. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This prospective observational study included 36 infants with biliary atresia who underwent Kasai portoenterostomy. All patients underwent clinical assessment, anthropometric evaluation, nutritional counselling, and an evaluation of vitamin D levels. Only compliant patients (22/36) were followed up after 3 and 6 months of nutritional counselling. RESULTS: Z-scores for weight, triceps skinfold thickness, and mid-upper arm circumference improved significantly after three months, and the height velocity Z-score improved after six months of nutritional counselling using an MCT-containing formula and supplementations. Patients who showed an improvement in cholestasis had better responses. The initial assessment revealed low serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D in 77.8 %, which increased significantly (p = 0.012). CONCLUSION: Dietary intervention and supplementation with MCT and micronutrients can improve the nutritional status of children with BA following KPE.

A convenient nomogram for predicting early death or liver transplantation after the Kasai procedure in patients with biliary atresia.

PURPOSE: Many patients with biliary atresia (BA) after the Kasai procedure (KP) progress to death or require liver transplantation to achieve long-term survival; however, most cases of death/liver transplantation (D/LT) occur in the early period after KP (usually within 1 year). This study was designed to construct a convenient nomogram for predicting early D/LT in patients with BA after KP. METHODS: A BA cohort was established in May 2017, and up to May 2023, 112 patients with 1-5 years of follow-up were enrolled in the study and randomly (ratio, 3:1) divided into a training cohort for constructing a nomogram (n = 84) and a validation cohort (n = 28) for externally validating the discrimination and calibration. The training cohort was divided into two groups: the early D/LT group (patients who died or had undergone LT within 1 year after KP [n = 35]) and the control group (patients who survived through the native liver more than 1 year after KP [n = 49]). Multivariate logistic regression and stepwise regression were applied to detect variables with the best predictive ability for the construction of the nomogram. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were internally and externally validated. RESULTS: The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curve showed an actual 1-year native liver transplantation (NLS) rate of 57.1% and an estimated 2-year NLS rate of 55.2%. By multivariate regression and stepwise regression, age at KP, jaundice clearance (JC) speed 1 month after KP, early-onset PC (initial time < 36.5 days) after KP, sex, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and weight at KP were identified as the independent variables with the best ability to predict early D/LT and were used to construct a nomogram. The developed nomogram based on these independent variables showed relatively good discrimination and calibration according to internal and external validation. CONCLUSION: Most D/LTs were early D/LTs that occurred within 1 year after KP. The established nomogram based on predictors, including sex, weight at the KP, the APRI, age at the KP, JC speed 1 month after the KP, and early PC, may be useful for predicting early D/LT and may be helpful for counseling BA patients about patient prognosis after KP. This study was retrospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05909033) in June 2023.