An empirical estimation of aggregate import demand under foreign exchange constraints: Evidence from Ethiopia.

This study employs the estimation of aggregate import demand under foreign exchange constraints in Ethiopia, utilizing annual time series data from 1985 to 2021. The regression analysis is conducted using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to investigate the impact of the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves on aggregate import demand in Ethiopia. The estimation results indicate that, in the long run, all the variables, i.e., foreign exchange reserve, the relative price of imports, real income, volatility of the exchange rate, money supply, and policy dummy, significantly determine the behavior of aggregate imports over the reference period. The findings also show that, in the long run, foreign exchange reserve, real income, and the exchange rate positively affect the demand for imports in Ethiopia. Meanwhile, a positive shock in relative import price and money supply negatively affects import demand in Ethiopia. Thus, the price and income elasticity estimates have correct signs and are statistically significant. The variables included in the model strongly affect import demand in both the short and long run. Finally, policymakers aiming to significantly influence import demand should focus on effective management of these variables, as they strongly affect import volume.

When income meets faith: the development and application of the Chinese generation Z unconventional religious orientation scale.

This study seeks to analyze the psychological construction of Unconventional Religious Orientations and their association with individual income level satisfaction within Generation Z. Generation Z, individuals born between 1995 and 2010, grew up in a socio-cultural context marked by digitization and globalization. This study identifies three key dimensions of Unconventional Religious Orientations: religious spiritual dependence, religious instrumental tendencies, and religious uniqueness identity. By combining rootedness theory, semi-structured interviews, and literature review, we constructed and refined a set of relevant scales. Using exploratory and validation factor analyses (EFA and CFA), we verified the structural validity of the scale. The results of the analyses revealed significant negative correlations between satisfaction with income level and all dimensions of Unconventional Religious Orientation for Generation Z, suggesting that Unconventional Religious Orientation tends to diminish as income satisfaction increases. In addition, the significant positive correlations between these dimensions of religious inclination imply that they may share certain underlying factors in their psychological structure. This study not only successfully developed a set of psychometric instruments for Unconventional Religious Orientations, but also provided a new psychological perspective for understanding the dynamic interaction between economic satisfaction and religious psychological attitudes in Generation Z.

How housing burden damages residents' health: evidence from Chinese cities.

Background: Currently, China is steadily pursuing high-quality development and promoting common prosperity, for which residents' health is a precondition. However, high housing-price-to-income ratios and rent-to-income ratios have already triggered many social problems and have substantially affected people's work and life. It is of practical significance to examine the relationship between housing burden and residents' health. Methods: Combining city-level housing price-to-income ratio data and residents' health data from the China Family Panel Studies, this study employs a binary logit model to investigate the impact and mechanism of housing burden on residents' physical and psychological health. Results: Overall, a 1% increase in the housing-price-to-income ratio leads to a 1.2% decrease in physical health and a 1.9% decrease in psychological health. In terms of different psychological state indicators, a 1% increase in the housing price-to-income ratio leads to a 1.1% increase in depression, 1.1% increase in nervousness, 1.4% increase in relentlessness, 1.4% increase in hopelessness, 1.0% increase in a sense of incapability, and 1.4% increase in meaninglessness. According to mechanistic analyses, a 1% increase in the housing-price-to-income ratio leads to increases of 0.6 and 0.7% in the smoking rate and late sleep rate, respectively, while it leads to a 0.9% decrease in the noon nap rate. Conclusion: A growing housing burden significantly negatively impacts both the physical and psychological health of residents and increases the possibility of negative emotions. Further investigation revealed that the housing burden damages residents' health by increasing their likelihood of smoking and sleeping late and decreasing their likelihood of taking a nap at noon, while exercise alleviates the negative impacts of the housing burden on residents' physical and psychological health. Finally, we also find that housing burdens' impacts on physical and psychological health differ significantly in terms of gender, age, and educational attainment. From the perspective of improving livelihoods, governments should consider the relationship between housing burdens and residents' health when formulating livelihood policies. Location-specific and targeted policies should be followed. Additionally, efforts should be made to promote exercise among citizens.

Economic impact of informal caring for a person with arthritis in Australia from 2015 to 2030: a microsimulation approach using national survey data.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the economic burden of informal caregivers not in the labour force (NILF) due to caring for a person with arthritis in Australia, with projections of these costs from 2015 to 2030. DESIGN: Static microsimulation modelling using national survey data. SETTING: Australia nationwide survey. PARTICIPANTS: Participants include respondents to the Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers who are informal carers of a person who has arthritis as their main chronic condition and non-carers. OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimating the economic impact and national aggregated costs of informal carers NILF to care for a person with arthritis and projecting these costs from 2015 to 2030 in 5-year intervals. RESULTS: On a per-person basis, when adjusted for age, sex and highest education attained, the difference in average weekly total income between informal carers and non-carers employed in the labour force is $A1051 (95% CI: $A927 to $A1204) in 2015 and projected to increase by up to 22% by 2030. When aggregated, the total national annual loss of income to informal carers NILF is estimated at $A388.2 million (95% CI: $A324.3 to $A461.9 million) in 2015, increasing to $A576.9 million (95% CI: $A489.2 to $A681.8 million) by 2030. The national annual tax revenue lost to the government of the informal carers NILF is estimated at $A99 million (95% CI: $A77.9 to $A126.4 million) in 2015 and is projected to increase 49% by 2030. CONCLUSION: Informal carers NILF are economically worse off than employed non-carers, and the aggregated national annual costs are substantial. The future economic impact of informal carers NILF to care for a person with arthritis in Australia is projected to increase, with the estimated differences in income between informal carers and employed non-carers increasing by 22% from 2015 to 2030.

Analyzing the process of achieving common wealth for different groups in China based on the opportunity advantage perspective of income distribution.

Realizing the common wealth of all people is the essential requirement of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Measuring the process of realizing common wealth and the differences between groups is one of the important issues that need to be addressed urgently. In order to reasonably measure the process of realizing common wealth in China, on the premise of horizontal comparability and vertical consistency, the principles of comparability and consistency are introduced, and a comparative method of opportunity advantage based on income distribution is proposed from the perspective of opportunity equity. Using the 2012-2020 CFPS data to measure and test the opportunity advantages and their differences across regions and groups in China. The study found, firstly, that the opportunity advantage persists but tends to diminish across groups, with the more educated group having a more pronounced opportunity advantage, but that this advantage is diminishing over time. Secondly, the doctoral degree group has a greater probability of earning higher incomes, followed by the master's and bachelor's degree groups, but this opportunity advantage, i.e., the probability of earning higher incomes, is diminishing, i.e., the education dividend is diminishing. Third, the difference in opportunity advantage between urban and rural areas still exists, as evidenced by the greater probability of higher incomes in towns than in rural areas, but this advantage has narrowed further over time, with a clear process of urban-rural integration. Fourthly, in terms of gender, men have a certain opportunity advantage over women, but this difference is not significant. Fifthly, in the context of education levels, gender and urban/rural subgroups, under the framework proposed in this paper, China has achieved some success in the process of realizing the common wealth, and is showing a steady upward trend.

Economic and financial viability of a pig farm in central semi-tropical Mexico: 2022-2026 prospective.

To estimate the economic and financial viability of a pig farm in central sub-tropical Mexico within a 5-year planning horizon, a Monte Carlo simulation model was utilized. Net returns were projected using simulated values for the distribution of input and product processes, establishing 2021 as base scenario. A stochastic modelling approach was employed to determine the economic and financial outlook. The findings reveal a panorama of economic and financial viability. Net income increased by 555%, return on assets rose from 3.36% in 2022 to 11.34% in 2026, and the probability of decapitalization dropped from 58% to 13%, respectively in the aforesaid periods. Similarly, the probability of obtaining negative net income decreased from 40% in 2022 to 18% in 2026. The technological, productive, and economic management of the production unit allowed for a favorable scenario within the planning horizon. There is a growing interest in predicting the economic sectors worth investing in and supporting, considering their economic and development performance. This research offers both methodological and scientific evidence to demonstrate the feasibility of establishing a planning schedule and validating the suitability of the pork sector for public investment and support.

Health-related quality of life and impact of socioeconomic status among primary and secondary school students after the third COVID-19 wave in Berlin, Germany.

In the earlier phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, studies in Germany and elsewhere found an overall reduction in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among students. However, there is little evidence on later pandemic stages as well as socioeconomic influencing factors. We aimed to (1) describe HRQoL in a Berlin student cohort at two time points in mid-2021, and to (2) analyze the effects of household income and education. We assessed HRQoL of students from 24 randomly selected primary and secondary schools in Berlin, Germany, with the KIDSCREEN-10 index in June and September 2021. To adjust for non-response bias, inverse probability weighting was applied. The potential effects of both household income and education (lower vs. higher) were estimated in generalized linear mixed models, based on prior assumptions presented in directed acyclic graphs. Our cohort comprised 660 students aged 7-19 years. In June 2021, 11.3% [95% CI = 9.0% - 14.0%] reported low HRQoL, whereas in September 2021, this increased to 13.7% [95% CI = 11.1% - 16.5%], with adolescent girls more frequently reporting low HRQoL at both time points (20% [95% CI = 17.1% - 23.3%] and 29% [95% CI = 25.5% - 32.5%]) compared to boys and younger children. While there was no statistically significant total effect of lower household income on HRQoL, a negative effect of lower household education was statistically significant (ß = -2.15, SE 0.95, 95% CI = -4.01 to -0.29, p = 0.024). In summary, students' HRQoL in mid-2021 was better than that documented in other studies conducted at pandemic onset using KIDSCREEN-10. Female adolescents reported low HRQoL more often, and lower household education significantly reduced children's HRQoL. Support strategies for psychosocial wellbeing should consider socioeconomically disadvantaged children as important target groups.

The substitution effect of financial and non-financial incentives at different income levels in physician recruitment: evidence from medical students in China.

BACKGROUND: Understanding how medical students respond to financial and non-financial incentives is crucial for recruiting health workers and attracting health talents in medical education. However, both incentives are integrated in working practice, and existing theoretical studies have suggested that various income levels may influence the substitution effect of both incentives, while the empirical evidence is lacking. Furthermore, little attention has been paid to the intrinsic motivation. This study aimed to explore the substitution effect of extrinsic incentives at different income levels, also taking intrinsic altruism into account. METHODS: We used the behavioral data from Zhang et al.'s experiments, which involved discrete choice experiments (DCEs) to assess the job preferences of medical students from six teaching hospitals in Beijing, China. The incentive factors included monthly income, work location, work environment, training and career development opportunities, work load, and professional recognition. Additionally, a lab-like experiment in the medical decision-making context was conducted to quantify altruism based on utility function. Furthermore, we separated the choice sets based on the actual income and distinguished the medical students on altruism. The willingness to pay (WTP) was used to estimate the substitution effect of incentives through conditional logit model. RESULTS: There was a significant substitution effect between non-financial and financial incentives. As income increased, non-financial incentives such as an excellent work environment, and sufficient career development became relatively more important. The impact of the increase in income on the substitution effect was more pronounced among individuals with higher altruism. Concerning the non-financial incentive work environment, in contrast to the growth of 546 CNY (84 USD) observed in the low-altruism group, the high-altruism group experienced a growth of 1040 CNY (160 USD) in the substitution effect. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in the income level exerted an influence on the substitution effect of non-financial incentives and financial incentives, especially in high-altruism medical students. Policymakers should attach importance to a favorable environment and promising career prospects on the basis of ensuring a higher income level. Medical school administrations should focus on promoting altruistic values in medical education, enhancing talent incentives and teaching strategies to encourage medical students to devote themselves to the medical professions.

Welfare effect analysis of pay-as-you-go pension system: Deconstruction from the perspective of relative utility and social equality.

This paper studies the redistributive effects of two major pay-as-you-go pension systems by constructing an intergenerational iterative model which does not only considers standard utility but also relative utility. The study find that the two main pay-as-you-go pension systems are both sustainable. If we consider different preferences, then the choice of pension system should depend on the question of whether individuals are more interested in the absolute level of consumption or in the consumption related to a reference group. If the latter is more important, the Beveridgean system is superior, it provides greater protection for vulnerable groups than the Bismarck pension system, and the pension income after retirement is relatively more balanced, but the price is a lower level of consumption in the long run compared to an economy with Bismarckian system. If individuals prefer instead the absolute level of consumption, the Bismarckian system is better, because it guarantees a comparable higher level of consumption, but the disadvantaged groups face a higher risk of poverty and the degree of social inequality will be relatively higher. However, it is important to note that in the long run, only the level of consumption differs, not the speed of growth or number of children.

Long-term health conditions and UK labour market outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Long-term health conditions can affect labour market outcomes. COVID-19 may have increased labour market inequalities, e.g. due to restricted opportunities for clinically vulnerable people. Evaluating COVID-19's impact could help target support. AIM: To quantify the effect of several long-term conditions on UK labour market outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic and compare them to pre-pandemic outcomes. METHODS: The Understanding Society COVID-19 survey collected responses from around 20,000 UK residents in nine waves from April 2020-September 2021. Participants employed in January/February 2020 with a variety of long-term conditions were matched with people without the condition but with similar baseline characteristics. Models estimated probability of employment, hours worked and earnings. We compared these results with results from a two-year pre-pandemic period. We also modelled probability of furlough and home-working frequency during COVID-19. RESULTS: Most conditions (asthma, arthritis, emotional/nervous/psychiatric problems, vascular/pulmonary/liver conditions, epilepsy) were associated with reduced employment probability and/or hours worked during COVID-19, but not pre-pandemic. Furlough was more likely for people with pulmonary conditions. People with arthritis and cancer were slower to return to in-person working. Few effects were seen for earnings. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 had a disproportionate impact on people with long-term conditions' labour market outcomes.

Quantifying reciprocal relationships between poverty and health: combining a causal loop diagram with longitudinal structural equation modelling.

BACKGROUND: This study takes on the challenge of quantifying a complex causal loop diagram describing how poverty and health affect each other, and does so using longitudinal data from The Netherlands. Furthermore, this paper elaborates on its methodological approach in order to facilitate replication and methodological advancement. METHODS: After adapting a causal loop diagram that was built by stakeholders, a longitudinal structural equation modelling approach was used. A cross-lagged panel model with nine endogenous variables, of which two latent variables, and three time-invariant exogenous variables was constructed. With this model, directional effects are estimated in a Granger-causal manner, using data from 2015 to 2019. Both the direct effects (with a one-year lag) and total effects over multiple (up to eight) years were calculated. Five sensitivity analyses were conducted. Two of these focus on lower-income and lower-wealth individuals. The other three each added one exogenous variable: work status, level of education, and home ownership. RESULTS: The effects of income and financial wealth on health are present, but are relatively weak for the overall population. Sensitivity analyses show that these effects are stronger for those with lower incomes or wealth. Physical capability does seem to have strong positive effects on both income and financial wealth. There are a number of other results as well, as the estimated models are extensive. Many of the estimated effects only become substantial after several years. CONCLUSIONS: Income and financial wealth appear to have limited effects on the health of the overall population of The Netherlands. However, there are indications that these effects may be stronger for individuals who are closer to the poverty threshold. Since the estimated effects of physical capability on income and financial wealth are more substantial, a broad recommendation would be that including physical capability in efforts that are aimed at improving income and financial wealth could be useful and effective. The methodological approach described in this paper could also be applied to other research settings or topics.

ICT diffusion and financial development: Comparing high, middle, and low-income countries.

Given the importance of ICT diffusion in the development of the financial sector, this analysis is an effort to analyze the transmission channels between the two in high-income and middle and low-income economies over 2001-2019. We have used three variables, including the ICT index, individuals using the internet, and mobile subscribers, to represent ICT and three indices, including the financial development index, financial institution index, and financial market index, to make our results reliable and robust. We utilized a GMM method for conducting the empirical analysis. Generally, our results imply that ICT diffusion positively impacts financial development in high-income economies and negatively impacts middle and low-income economies. Our findings suggest that middle- and low-income-economy policymakers should follow the footprint of the high-income economies and increase the role of ICT in the financial sector for its development.

Research on the income and expenditure forecast of long-term care insurance fund in Shihezi City based on community care.

Objective: This study forecasts the income and expenditures of the long-term care insurance fund, provides a basis for formulating the raising standard of the long-term care insurance fund, and explores the measures to improve the pilot work of long-term care insurance. Methods: By using the exponential smoothing and ARIMA models to forecast the income and expenditure of the old-age care insurance fund in 2022, the problems existing in the operation of the long-term care insurance fund are discussed. Results: In 2022, the income of the old-age insurance fund was 28.8934 million yuan, and the fund compensation expenditure was 28.4070 million yuan, with a slight balance of the fund. The highest relative errors of income and expenditure forecast models are -2.03% and - 2.76%, respectively. According to the results of fund expenditure, the annual financing standard should be 132.93 yuan/person, and the individual financing standard should be 66.47 yuan/person. Conclusion: Through the integration of personal payment, welfare, sports lottery public welfare income, social donations, and other ways, we can gradually establish a multi-channel risk-sharing financing. We will appropriately raise the standard for individual financing and the annual contribution standard for individuals from 50 yuan to 66.47 yuan. This will promote sustainable development of long-term insurance system.

The Gender Wage Gap Among Early-Career Family Physicians.

PURPOSE: Numerous studies have documented salary differences between male and female physicians. For many specialties, this wage gap has been explored by controlling for measurable factors that influence pay such as productivity, work-life balance, and practice patterns. In family medicine where practice activities differ widely between physicians, it is important to understand what measurable factors may be contributing to the gender wage gap, so that employers and policymakers and can address unjust disparities. METHODS: We used data from the 2017 to 2020 American Board of Family Medicine (ABFM) National Graduate Survey (NGS) which is administered to family physicians 3 years after residency (n = 8608; response rate = 63.9%, 56.2% female). The survey collects clinical income and practice patterns. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed, which included variables on hours worked, degree type, principal professional activity, rural/urban, and region. RESULTS: Although early-career family physician incomes averaged $225,278, female respondents reported incomes that were $43,566 (17%) lower than those of male respondents (P = .001). Generally, female respondents tended toward lower-earning principal professional activities and US regions; worked fewer hours (2.9 per week); and tended to work more frequently in urban settings. However, in adjusted models, this gap in income only fell to $31,804 (13% lower than male respondents, P = .001). CONCLUSION: Even after controlling for measurable factors such as hours worked, degree type, principal professional activity, population density, and region, a significant wage gap persists. Interventions should be taken to eliminate gender bias in wage determinations for family physicians.