Association of Tropical Cyclones With County-Level Mortality in the US.

Importance: Tropical cyclones have a devastating effect on society, but a comprehensive assessment of their association with cause-specific mortality over multiple years of study is lacking. Objective: To comprehensively evaluate the association of county-level tropical cyclone exposure and death rates from various causes in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective observational study using a Bayesian conditional quasi-Poisson model to examine how tropical cyclones were associated with monthly death rates. Data from 33.6 million deaths in the US were collected from the National Center for Health Statistics over 31 years (1988-2018), including residents of the 1206 counties in the US that experienced at least 1 tropical cyclone during the study period. Exposures: Tropical cyclone days per county-month, defined as number of days in a month with a sustained maximal wind speed 34 knots or greater. Main Outcomes and Measures: Monthly cause-specific county-level death rates by 6 underlying causes of death: cancers, cardiovascular diseases, infectious and parasitic diseases, injuries, neuropsychiatric conditions, and respiratory diseases. The model yielded information about the association between each additional cyclone day per month and monthly county-level mortality compared with the same county-month in different years, up to 6 months after tropical cyclones, and how these estimated associations varied by age, sex, and social vulnerability. The unit of analysis was county-month. Results: There were 33 619 393 deaths in total (16 691 681 females and 16 927 712 males; 8 587 033 aged 0-64 years and 25 032 360 aged 65 years or older) from the 6 causes recorded in 1206 US counties. There was a median of 2 tropical cyclone days experienced in total in included US counties. Each additional cyclone day was associated with increased death rates in the month following the cyclone for injuries (3.7% [95% credible interval {CrI}, 2.5%-4.9%]; 2.0 [95% CrI, 1.3-2.7] additional deaths per 1 000 000 for 2018 monthly age-standardized median rate [DPM]; 54.3 to 56.3 DPM), infectious and parasitic diseases (1.8% [95% CrI, 0.1%-3.6%]; 0.2 [95% CrI, 0.0-0.4] additional DPM; 11.7 to 11.9 DPM), respiratory diseases (1.3% [95% CrI, 0.2%-2.4%]; 0.6 [95% CrI, 0.1-1.1] additional DPM; 44.9 to 45.5 DPM), cardiovascular diseases (1.2% [95% CrI, 0.6%-1.7%]; 1.5 [95% CrI, 0.8-2.2] additional DPM; 129.6 to 131.1 DPM), neuropsychiatric conditions (1.2% [95% CrI, 0.1%-2.4%]; 0.6 [95% CrI, 0.1-1.2] additional DPM; 52.1 to 52.7 DPM), with no change for cancers (-0.3% [95% CrI, -0.9% to 0.3%]; -0.3 [95% CrI, -0.9 to 0.3] additional DPM; 100.4 to 100.1 DPM). Conclusions and Relevance: Among US counties that experienced at least 1 tropical cyclone from 1988-2018, each additional cyclone day per month was associated with modestly higher death rates in the months following the cyclone for several causes of death, including injuries, infectious and parasitic diseases, cardiovascular diseases, neuropsychiatric conditions, and respiratory diseases.

Mortality rates immediately after severe hurricanes in Cuba have decreased over the past three decades.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to understand how Cuba responds to extreme weather events, which can help identify and disseminate good public health practice. STUDY DESIGN: The study design of this study is an observational study using routinely collected mortality data. METHODS: National daily mortality counts after severe hurricanes arrived on the Cuba landmass since 1990 were compared with baseline values. Incidence rate ratios of mortality during the hurricane and for the four weeks afterwards were calculated for four eligible hurricanes: Georges (1998), Dennis (2005), Ike (2008) and Irma (2017). RESULTS: Mortality rates decreased over time (P < 0.001 for interaction), and no excess mortality counts were observed after Hurricane Irma in 2017. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates for severe hurricanes that have made landfall in Cuba have decreased over three decades, despite the most recent hurricane (Irma) being one of the strongest observed in recent decades. This suggests that the Cuban public health preparations and responses to recent severe hurricanes are probably contributing to this mitigation in national mortality rates during these periods.

Government effectiveness and institutions as determinants of tropical cyclone mortality.

Strong institutions as well as economic development are generally understood to play critical roles in protecting societies from the adverse impacts of natural hazards, such as tropical cyclones. The independent effect of institutions on reducing these risks, however, has not been confirmed empirically in previous global studies. As a storm's path and intensity influence the severity of the damages and may be spatially correlated with human vulnerabilities, failing to accurately capture physical exposure in an econometric analysis may result in imprecise and biased estimates of the influence of the independent variables. Here, we develop an approach to control for physical exposure by spatially interacting meteorological and socioeconomic data for over 1,000 tropical cyclone disasters from 1979 to 2016. We find evidence that higher levels of national government effectiveness are associated with lower tropical cyclone mortality, even when controlling for average income and other socioeconomic conditions. Within countries, deaths are higher when strong winds are concentrated over areas of the country with elevated infant mortality rates, an indicator of institutional effectiveness through public service delivery. These results suggest that policies and programs to enhance institutional capacity and governance can support risk reduction from extreme weather events.

Association Between Exposure to Hurricane Irma and Mortality and Hospitalization in Florida Nursing Home Residents.

Importance: Nursing home residents are at heightened risk for morbidity and mortality following an exposure to a disaster such as a hurricane or the COVID19 pandemic. Previous research has shown that nursing home resident mortality related to disasters is frequently underreported. There is a need to better understand the consequences of disasters on nursing home residents and to differentiate vulnerability based on patient characteristics. Objective: To evaluate mortality and morbidity associated with exposure to Hurricane Irma, a Category 4 storm that made landfall on September 10, 2017, in Cudjoe Key, Florida, among short-stay (<90-day residence) and long-stay (≥90-day residence) residents of nursing homes. Design, Setting, and Participants: Cohort study of Florida nursing home residents comparing residents exposed to Hurricane Irma in September 2017 to a control group of residents residing at the same nursing homes over the same time period in calendar year 2015. Data were analyzed from August 28, 2019, to July 22, 2020. Exposure: Residents who experienced Hurricane Irma were considered exposed; those who did not were considered unexposed. Main Outcome and Measures: Outcome variables included 30-day and 90-day mortality and first hospitalizations after the storm in both the short term and the long term. Results: A total of 61 564 residents who were present in 640 Florida nursing home facilities on September 7, 2017, were identified. A comparison cohort of 61 813 residents was evaluated in 2015. Both cohorts were mostly female (2015, 68%; 2017, 67%), mostly White (2015, 79%; 2017, 78%), and approximately 40% of the residents in each group were over the age of 85 years. Compared with the control group in 2015, an additional 262 more nursing home deaths were identified at 30 days and 433 more deaths at 90 days. The odds of a first hospitalization for those exposed (vs nonexposed) were 1.09 (95% CI, 1.05-1.13) within the first 30 days after the storm and 1.05 (95% CI, 1.02-1.08) at 90 days; the odds of mortality were 1.12 (95% CI, 1.05-1.18) at 30 days and 1.07 (95% CI, 1.03-1.11) at 90 days. Among long-stay residents, the odds of mortality for those exposed to Hurricane Irma were 1.18 (95% CI, 1.08-1.29) times those unexposed and the odds of hospitalization were 1.11 (95% CI, 1.04-1.18) times those unexposed in the post 30-day period. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest that nursing home residents are at considerable risk to the consequences of disasters. These risks may be underreported by state and federal agencies. Long-stay residents, those who have resided in a nursing home for 90 days or more, may be most vulnerable to the consequences of hurricane disasters.

Mitigating the Twin Threats of Climate-Driven Atlantic Hurricanes and COVID-19 Transmission.

The co-occurrence of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season and the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic creates complex dilemmas for protecting populations from these intersecting threats. Climate change is likely contributing to stronger, wetter, slower-moving, and more dangerous hurricanes. Climate-driven hazards underscore the imperative for timely warning, evacuation, and sheltering of storm-threatened populations - proven life-saving protective measures that gather evacuees together inside durable, enclosed spaces when a hurricane approaches. Meanwhile, the rapid acquisition of scientific knowledge regarding how COVID-19 spreads has guided mass anti-contagion strategies, including lockdowns, sheltering at home, physical distancing, donning personal protective equipment, conscientious handwashing, and hygiene practices. These life-saving strategies, credited with preventing millions of COVID-19 cases, separate and move people apart. Enforcement coupled with fear of contracting COVID-19 have motivated high levels of adherence to these stringent regulations. How will populations react when warned to shelter from an oncoming Atlantic hurricane while COVID-19 is actively circulating in the community? Emergency managers, health care providers, and public health preparedness professionals must create viable solutions to confront these potential scenarios: elevated rates of hurricane-related injury and mortality among persons who refuse to evacuate due to fear of COVID-19, and the resurgence of COVID-19 cases among hurricane evacuees who shelter together.

Community Lifeline Framework for Leveraging Stabilization in Response and Recovery to Major Hurricanes.

The United States (US) and Caribbean regions remain vulnerable to the impact of severe tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons. In 2017, a series of hurricanes posed threats to residents living in inland and coastal communities as well as on islands isolated from the US mainland. Harvey, Irma, Jose, and Maria caused catastrophic infrastructure damage, resulting in a loss of electrical power and communications due to damaged or downed utility poles, cell towers, and transmission lines. Critical services were inoperable for many months. Emergency managers are public officials who are accountable to both political leaders and the citizens. During disaster events, emergency managers must prioritize areas of effort, manage personnel, and communicate with stakeholders to address critical infrastructure interdependences. Essential lifeline services (eg, energy and communications) were inoperable for many months, which led to increased attention from policy-makers, media, and the public.

Lessons Learned from a Medical Response Team 45 Days Post Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico.

OBJECTIVE: Describe the lived experience of a grassroots, non-governmental disaster medical team (DMT) through a research lens and share practical lessons learned, based on the DMT's experience to support and inform future response teams. METHODS: Forty-five days after Hurricane Maria, a non-governmental DMT provided primary medical care via community based pop-up clinics and home visitations in 5 different areas of Puerto Rico. Observational data, photo images, and debriefing notes were collected and documented in the response team's daily activity log. Field notes were coded using a descriptive coding method and then categorized into 2 domains specific to public health and medical diagnosis. RESULTS: Medical aid was provided to nearly 300 (N = 296) residents. Field note observations identified exhaustion related to living conditions and the exacerbation of underlying conditions such as reactive airway diseases, diabetes, hypertension, and depression due to the compounding effects of multiple post-disaster triggers. During home visitations, feelings of sadness and helplessness were identified secondary to natural disaster trauma and current living conditions. CONCLUSION: Our non-governmental DMT displayed similar characteristics demonstrated by federal DMTs post natural disaster. A number of strategic lessons learned emerged from the public health intervention important to future non-governmental DMTs.

Twelve years later: The long-term mental health consequences of Hurricane Katrina.

In August 2005, Hurricane Katrina caused unprecedented damage, widespread population displacement, and exposed Gulf Coast residents to traumatic events. The hurricane's adverse impact on survivors' mental health was apparent shortly after the storm and persisted, but no study has examined the long-term effects now that more than a decade has transpired. Using new data from a panel study of low-income mothers interviewed once before Hurricane Katrina and now three times after, we document changes in mental health, and estimate the sociodemographic and hurricane-related factors associated with long-term trajectories of mental health. We find that post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) declined at each of the three post-Katrina follow-ups, but 12 years after the hurricane, one in six still had symptoms indicative of probable post-traumatic stress disorder. The rate of non-specific psychological distress (PD) remained consistently higher in all three follow-ups, compared to the pre-disaster period. In full covariate-adjusted models, no sociodemographic variables predicted long-run combinations of PTSS and PD. However, 12 years later, exposure to hurricane-related traumatic events and pre-disaster PD significantly predicted co-occurring PTSS and PD. Hurricane-related housing damage predicted PTSS in earlier follow-ups, but no longer predicted PTSS in the long-term. Furthermore, hurricane-related traumatic events significantly differentiated the risk of having persistent PTSS, relative to recovering from PTSS. The results suggest that there is still a non-negligible group of survivors with continued need for recovery resources and that exposure to traumatic events is a primary predictor of adverse mental health more than a decade post-disaster.

Long-term Effects of Disasters on Seniors With Diabetes: Evidence From Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the long-run mortality effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on seniors with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of Medicare enrollment and claims data covering four states and ∼10 years. Affected individuals were identified by whether they lived in a county that suffered a high impact and were stratified by whether they moved to a different county following the storms. Propensity scores matched affected and comparison subjects based on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and the presence of chronic conditions. Our sample consisted of 170,328 matched affected subjects. RESULTS: The affected subjects had a nearly 40% higher all-cause mortality risk in the 1st month after the storms, but the difference fell to <6% by the end of the full observation period. The mortality risks of heart disease and nephritis also exhibited the largest differences immediately following the storms. Among the affected subjects, the all-cause mortality risk was higher for those who moved to a different county, with an especially large difference among those who moved to an affected county. CONCLUSIONS: The propensity matching procedure resulted in the comparison and affected groups having similar observable characteristics. However, we only examined the extreme outcome of mortality, our definition of affected was somewhat crude, and our sample did not include individuals enrolled in Medicare Advantage. Our findings highlight the importance of the immediate response to disasters, yet also demonstrate the long-lasting impact disasters can have.

Using cluster analysis to explore mortality patterns associated with tropical cyclones.

Understanding the circumstances and conditions surrounding disaster-attributed deaths may contribute to designing and implementing emergency preparedness and response programmes. This paper introduces a three-step cluster analysis of multiple binary variables to investigate mortality patterns related to tropical cyclones. It is designed to overcome the difficulties of performing cluster analysis in a disaster database that is composed in part of nominal variables and is unavoidably incomplete owing to missing information. The first step in the process codes all variables as binary data in order to accommodate the nominal variables. The second step calculates Spearman's rank correlation coefficients for pairs of variables. And the third step subjects the correlation coefficients to cluster analysis. Data related to 1,575 deaths attributed to tropical cyclones (also known as typhoons) that struck Taiwan between 2000 and 2015 are used to illustrate the method. The results yield two distinct groups of variables that are worthy of further exploration.

Modeling excess deaths after a natural disaster with application to Hurricane Maria.

Estimation of excess deaths due to a natural disaster is an important public health problem. The CDC provides guidelines to fill death certificates to help determine the death toll of such events. But, even when followed by medical examiners, the guidelines cannot guarantee a precise calculation of excess deaths. We propose two models to estimate excess deaths due to an emergency. The first model is simple, permitting excess death estimation with little data through a profile likelihood method. The second model is more flexible, incorporating temporal variation, covariates, and possible population displacement while allowing inference on how the emergency's effect changes with time. The models are implemented to build confidence intervals estimating Hurricane Maria's death toll.

What the Puerto Rican hurricanes make visible: Chronicle of a public health disaster foretold.

García Márquez's novel, "Chronicle of a Death Foretold", narrates the multiple strands of a story leading up to a murder in a small Caribbean village. The novel shows both the incredulity of those who do not believe it possible that this tragic death could occur, and the impotence of those who see it coming but can do nothing to prevent it. Something akin to this double incapacity seems to be occurring today in Puerto Rico. In September 2017, the passage of Hurricanes Irma and María caused a public health disaster with large-scale death and destruction. Paradoxically, this catastrophe has made visible the need to evaluate the critical socio-environmental situation of this country, and to analyse the underlying social factors contributing to the problems caused by the hurricanes. Why did neither the US nor the Puerto Rican government react as expected when faced with such a serious situation? For decades, this country has been suppressed by colonial domination, exploitation of the workforce, and health discrimination. It has been a "laboratory", where colonial practices have institutionalized social control, racism, and inequality, with profound negative effects on society, quality of life and health equality. Poverty and unemployment have always been very high, and thousands of families live in precarious housing situations. Additionally, current labour reforms imposed as part of a neoliberal agenda, are eroding the job security and protections of the working population, while education, health, housing, pensions, energy, and land are being progressively privatized. What are the root causes of this situation? What future does the country await? To answer these questions, critical and comprehensive scrutiny of history showing what the hurricanes have helped to make visible is required. This shows that neoliberal colonialism has shaped the social features behind the principle health and inequality problems of the Puerto-Rican population.

Causes of Excess Deaths in Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria: A Time-Series Estimation.

Objectives. To determine the number and causes of excess deaths in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria made landfall on September 20, 2017. Methods. We obtained monthly vital statistics data on all deaths from January 2008 through October 2017. We conducted a time-series analysis to estimate excess mortality in September and October 2017 overall and by age, sex, and cause of death. Results. We estimated a total of 1205 excess deaths (95% confidence interval [CI] = 707, 1702). Excess deaths were slightly higher among men than women (632 and 579 deaths, respectively) and found only among people aged 60 years or older (1038 deaths). Most excess deaths occurred from heart disease (253 deaths), "other" causes (204 deaths), diabetes (195 deaths), Alzheimer's disease (122 deaths), and septicemia (81 deaths). Conclusions. The number of excess deaths was similar to recent government estimates. However, this study is the first to identify the causes of death that were exacerbated by the disaster. Public Health Implications. An accurate estimation of the top causes of excess mortality can help authorities plan resource allocation for the island's recovery and for the prevention of deaths in future disasters.

Lessons Learned From Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico: Practical Measures to Mitigate the Impact of a Catastrophic Natural Disaster on Radiation Oncology Patients.

PURPOSE: Although the wind, rain, and flooding of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico abated shortly after its landfall on September 20, 2017, the disruption of the electrical, communications, transportation, and medical infrastructure of the island was unprecedented in scope and caused lasting harm for many months afterward. A compilation of recommendations from radiation oncologists who were in Puerto Rico during the disaster, and from a panel of American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) cancer experts was created. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Radiation oncologists throughout Puerto Rico collaborated and improvised to continue treating patients in the immediate aftermath of the storm and as routine clinical operations were restored gradually. Empirical lessons from the experience of radiation therapy administration in this profoundly altered context of limited resources, impaired communication, and inadequate transportation were organized into a recommended template, applicable to any radiation oncology practice. ASTRO disease-site experts provided evidence-guidelines for mitigating the impact of a 2- to 3-week interruption in radiation therapy. RESULTS: Practical measures to mitigate the medical impact of a disaster are summarized within the framework of "Prepare, Communicate, Operate, Compensate." Specific measures include the development of an emergency operations plan tailored to specific circumstances, prospective coordination with other radiation oncology clinics before a disaster, ongoing communications with emergency management organizations, and routine practice of alternate methods to disseminate information among providers and patients. CONCLUSIONS: These recommendations serve as a starting point to assist any radiation oncology practice in becoming more resiliently prepared for a local or regional disruption from any cause. Disease-site experts provide evidence-based guidelines on how to mitigate the impact of a 2- to 3-week interruption in radiation therapy for lung, head and neck, uterine cervix, breast, and prostate cancers through altered fractionation or dose escalation.