Development of a simple model for predicting need for surgery in patients who initially undergo conservative management for adhesive small bowel obstruction.
Am J Surg
; 200(2): 215-23, 2010 Aug.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-20591400
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Among patients with adhesive small bowel obstruction (ASBO) initially managed with a conservative strategy, predicting risk of operation is difficult.METHODS:
We investigated ASBO patients at 2 different periods to derive and validate a clinical prediction model for risk of operation.RESULTS:
One hundred fifty-four patients were enrolled into the derivation cohort and 96 into the validation cohort. Based on the derived scoring, including age > or =65 years, presence of ascites, and gastrointestinal drainage volume >500 mL on day 3, each patient was classified into 1 of 4 risk classes from low risk to high risk. When applied to the validation cohort, the positive predictive value (PPV) for operation in the high-risk class was 72%, while the negative predictive value (NPV) in the low-risk class was 100% with high sensitivity (100%) and specificity (96%).CONCLUSIONS:
The prediction model performs well for risk stratification of need for surgical intervention following conservative strategy among ASBO patients.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Adherencias Tisulares
/
Obstrucción Intestinal
/
Intestino Delgado
Tipo de estudio:
Etiology_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Aged
/
Aged80
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Am J Surg
Año:
2010
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Japón