Development of a scoring system for atrial fibrillation in acute stroke and transient ischemic attack patients: the LADS scoring system.

INTRODUCTION: Detection of atrial fibrillation in patients presenting with ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) is important for the prevention of future events. We sought to develop a scoring system that would identify those patients most likely to have atrial fibrillation. METHODS: Records from an inpatient stroke and TIA database and echocardiographic data were reviewed. Consecutive acute stroke and TIA patients over the age of 18 who were admitted during a two-year period were studied. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed to identify variables associated with atrial fibrillation. Logistic regression analyses were used to develop a scoring system for atrial fibrillation. RESULTS: 953 patient charts were reviewed; 145 patients (15%) had atrial fibrillation. In univariate and multivariate analyses, variables that were significantly associated with atrial fibrillation included left atrial diameter, age, and diagnosis of stroke. A history of smoking showed an inverse association. A 6-point scoring system based on these variables (with the acronym of LADS) was developed. A score of 4 or greater was associated with a sensitivity of 85.5% and a specificity of 53.1%. Approximately 47% of stroke and TIA patients would be excluded from further investigation using this score. CONCLUSIONS: We describe a system of scoring that identifies acute stroke and TIA patients with a greater chance of having atrial fibrillation. An inverse relationship with smoking was found. Further prospective studies are required to determine the clinical utility and cost-effectiveness of this scoring system in clinical practice and to investigate the inverse relationship between smoking and atrial fibrillation in this population.