Modeling of H1N1 Outbreak in Rajasthan: Methods and Approaches.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models could provide critical insights for informing preparedness and planning to deal with future epidemics of infectious disease. OBJECTIVE: The study modeled the H1N1 epidemic in the city of Jaipur, Rajasthan using mathematical model for prediction of progression of epidemic and its duration. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We iterated the model for various values of R(0) to determine the effect of variations in R(0) onthe potential size and time-course of the epidemic, while keeping value of 1/γ constant. Further simulation using varying values of 1/γ were done, keeping value of R(0) constant. We attempted to fit the actual reported data and compared with prediction models. RESULTS: As R(0) increases,incidence of H1N1 rises and reaches peak early. The duration of epidemic may be prolonged if R(0) is reduced. Using the parameters R(0) as 1.4 and 1/γ as 3, it estimated that there would have been 656 actually infected individuals for each reported case. CONCLUSION: The mathematical modeling can be used for predicting epidemic progression and impact of control measures. Decreasing the value of R(0) would decrease the proportion of total population infected by H1N1; however, the duration of the outbreak may be prolonged.