Modeling of H1N1 Outbreak in Rajasthan: Methods and Approaches.
Indian J Community Med
; 36(1): 36-8, 2011 Jan.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-21687379
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Mathematical models could provide critical insights for informing preparedness and planning to deal with future epidemics of infectious disease.OBJECTIVE:
The study modeled the H1N1 epidemic in the city of Jaipur, Rajasthan using mathematical model for prediction of progression of epidemic and its duration. MATERIALS ANDMETHODS:
We iterated the model for various values of R(0) to determine the effect of variations in R(0) onthe potential size and time-course of the epidemic, while keeping value of 1/γ constant. Further simulation using varying values of 1/γ were done, keeping value of R(0) constant. We attempted to fit the actual reported data and compared with prediction models.RESULTS:
As R(0) increases,incidence of H1N1 rises and reaches peak early. The duration of epidemic may be prolonged if R(0) is reduced. Using the parameters R(0) as 1.4 and 1/γ as 3, it estimated that there would have been 656 actually infected individuals for each reported case.CONCLUSION:
The mathematical modeling can be used for predicting epidemic progression and impact of control measures. Decreasing the value of R(0) would decrease the proportion of total population infected by H1N1; however, the duration of the outbreak may be prolonged.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Indian J Community Med
Año:
2011
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
India