Predicting surgical skill acquisition in preclinical medical students.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to identify factors that predict medical student success in acquiring invasive procedural skills. We hypothesized that students with interest in surgery and with prior procedural experience would have higher rates of success. METHODS: Preclinical students were enrolled in a simulation course comprised of suturing, intubation, and central venous catheterization. Students completed surveys to describe demographics, specialty interest area, prior experience, and confidence. Using linear regression, variables predictive of proficiency were identified. RESULTS: Forty-five participants completed the course. Under univariate analysis, composite pretest score was inversely associated with confidence (P = .039). Under multivariable analysis, female gender was associated with higher pretest suturing score (P = .016). Male gender (P = .029) and high confidence (P = .021) were associated with greater improvement in suturing. CONCLUSIONS: Among novices, higher confidence can predict lower baseline technical proficiency. Although females had higher pretest suturing scores, high confidence and male gender were associated with the greatest degree of improvement.