The multiple-comparison trap and the Raven's paradox-perils of using null hypothesis testing in environmental assessment.
Environ Monit Assess
; 190(7): 409, 2018 Jun 18.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29916087
ABSTRACT
Detecting and quantifying environmental thresholds is frequently an important step in understanding ecological responses to environmental stressors. We discuss two statistical issues often encountered in threshold detection and quantification when statistical null hypothesis testing is used as a main analytical tool. The hidden multiple-comparison trap (leading to a much higher risk of a false detection) and Raven's paradox (rendering a "detection" meaningless) are often obscured when statistical hypothesis testing is used as part of a more elaborate model, especially models based on computer-intensive methods. Using two examples, we show that the hidden multiple-comparison trap can be exposed using computer simulation to estimate the probability of making a false detection; Raven's paradox can be avoided by clearly stating the null and alternative hypotheses using scientific terms to substantiate that the rejection of the null is equivalent to proving that the alternative of interest is true. The hidden multiple-comparison trap implies that a null hypothesis testing based on a computer-intensive method should be used with caution. The implication of Raven's paradox requires that we focus on providing evidence supporting the proposed hypothesis or model, rather than seeking evidence against the frequently irrelevant null hypothesis. These two problems, and many others related to null hypothesis testing, suggest that statistical hypothesis testing should be used only as a component of the body of evidence, perhaps, as the devil's advocate.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Contexto en salud:
2_ODS3
Problema de salud:
2_quimicos_contaminacion
Asunto principal:
Monitoreo del Ambiente
/
Modelos Estadísticos
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Environ Monit Assess
Asunto de la revista:
SAUDE AMBIENTAL
Año:
2018
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos