Comparison of accuracy of prediction of postoperative mortality and morbidity between a new, parsimonious risk calculator (SURPAS) and the ACS Surgical Risk Calculator.
Am J Surg
; 219(6): 1065-1072, 2020 06.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31376949
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The novel Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS) requires entry of five predictor variables (the other three variables of the eight-variable model are automatically obtained from the electronic health record or a table look-up), provides patient risk estimates compared to national averages, is integrated into the electronic health record, and provides a graphical handout of risks for patients. The accuracy of the SURPAS tool was compared to that of the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator (ACS-SRC).METHODS:
Predicted risk of postoperative mortality and morbidity was calculated using both SURPAS and ACS-SRC for 1,006 randomly selected 2007-2016 ACS National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) patients with known outcomes. C-indexes, Hosmer-Lemeshow graphs, and Brier scores were compared between SURPAS and ACS-SRC.RESULTS:
ACS-SRC risk estimates for overall morbidity underestimated risk compared to observed postoperative overall morbidity, particularly for the highest risk patients. SURPAS accurately estimates morbidity risk compared to observed morbidity.CONCLUSIONS:
SURPAS risk predictions were more accurate than ACS-SRC's for overall morbidity, particularly for high risk patients.SUMMARY:
The accuracy of the SURPAS tool was compared to that of the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator (ACS-SRC). SURPAS risk predictions were more accurate than those of the ACS-SRC for overall morbidity, particularly for high risk patients.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Contexto en salud:
1_ASSA2030
Problema de salud:
1_sistemas_informacao_saude
Asunto principal:
Complicaciones Posoperatorias
/
Medición de Riesgo
Tipo de estudio:
Etiology_studies
/
Incidence_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Adult
/
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Am J Surg
Año:
2020
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos