Application of nomograms to predict overall and cancer-specific survival in patients with chordoma.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The survival prediction of patients with chordoma is difficult to make due to the rarity of this oncologic disease. Our objective was to apply a nomogram to predict survival outcomes in individuals with chordoma of the skull base, vertebral column, and pelvis. METHODS: A total of 558 patients with chordoma between 1973 and 2014 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Independent prognostic factors in patients with chordoma were identified via univariate and multivariate Cox analysis. Then these prognostic factors were incorporated into a nomogram to predict 3- and 5-year overall survival and cancer-specific survival rates. Internal and external data were used to validate the nomograms. Concordance indices (C-indices) were used to estimate the accuracy of this nomogram system. RESULTS: A total of 558 patients were randomly assigned into a training cohort (n = 372) and a validation cohort (n = 186). Age, surgical stage, tumor size, histology, primary site, and use of surgery were identified as independent prognostic factors via univariate and multivariate Cox analysis (all p < 0.05) and further included to establish the nomogram. The C-indices for overall survival and cancer-specific survival prediction of the training cohort were 0.775 (95% confidence interval, 0.770-0.779) and 0.756 (95% confidence interval, 0.749 -0.762). The calibration plots both showed an excellent consistency between actual survival and nomogram prediction. CONCLUSION: Nomograms were constructed to predict overall survival and cancer-specific survival for patients with chordoma of the skull base, vertebral column, and pelvis. The nomogram could help surgeons to identify high risk of mortality and evaluate prognosis in patients with chordoma.