The predictors of outcome and progression of pediatric sepsis and septic shock: A prospective observational study from western India.

INTRODUCTION: There is a paucity of studies on the progression and outcome of Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) with its determinants. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: To determine the predictors of the outcome and progression of pediatric sepsis and septic shock. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Prospective observational study of children fulfilling criteria of SIRS and their progression to sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock (clinically and biochemically) was conducted at a tertiary care center. RESULTS: Totally, 200 children were recruited over a period of 21 months (from February 2016 to October 2017). Most cases (80, 40%) were infants. Of the total, 188 (94%) cases were of an infective etiology (mostly respiratory system). Temperature and heart rate were the two commonest SIRS parameters which were deranged. Blood cultures were positive in only 25 (12.5%) cases. Out of the total 200 children, 108 progressed to sepsis, of which 26 progressed to severe sepsis, of which 22 progressed to septic shock. Abnormal leukocyte count, culture positivity and severe acute malnutrition were significantly associated with progression of SIRS patients to septic shock (P = 0.001, 0.00001 and 0.002, respectively). Factors associated with mortality were positive blood culture, multiorgan dysfunction, late hospital admissions, severe acute malnutrition, and requirement of supportive care (P values-<0.0001, <0.0001, 0.03, <0.0001 and <0.0001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: SIRS can progress to septic shock if not identified early. The predictors of mortality were positive blood cultures, multiorgan dysfunction, late hospital admissions, severe acute malnutrition, and requirement of supportive care. The predictors of progression to septic shock were abnormal leukocyte count, culture positivity, and severe acute malnutrition.