A competing-risk nomogram to predict cause-specific death in elderly patients with colorectal cancer after surgery (especially for colon cancer).

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Clinically, when the diagnosis of colorectal cancer is clear, patients are more concerned about their own prognosis survival. Special population with high risk of accidental death, such as elderly patients, is more likely to die due to causes other than tumors. The main purpose of this study is to construct a prediction model of cause-specific death (CSD) in elderly patients using competing-risk approach, so as to help clinicians to predict the probability of CSD in elderly patients with colorectal cancer. METHODS: The data were extracted from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to include ≥ 65-year-old patients with colorectal cancer who had undergone surgical treatment from 2010 to 2016. Using competing-risk methodology, the cumulative incidence function (CIF) of CSD was calculated to select the predictors among 13 variables, and the selected variables were subsequently refined and used for the construction of the proportional subdistribution hazard model. The model was presented in the form of nomogram, and the performance of nomogram was bootstrap validated internally and externally using the concordance index (C-index). RESULTS: Dataset of 19,789 patients who met the inclusion criteria were eventually selected for analysis. The five-year cumulative incidence of CSD was 31.405% (95% confidence interval [CI] 31.402-31.408%). The identified clinically relevant variables in nomogram included marital status, pathological grade, AJCC TNM stage, CEA, perineural invasion, and chemotherapy. The nomogram was shown to have good discrimination after internal validation with a C-index of 0.801 (95% CI 0.795-0.807) as well as external validation with a C-index of 0.759 (95% CI 0.716-0.802). Both the internal and external validation calibration curve indicated good concordance between the predicted and actual outcomes. CONCLUSION: Using the large sample database and competing-risk analysis, a postoperative prediction model for elderly patients with colorectal cancer was established with satisfactory accuracy. The individualized estimates of CSD outcome for the elderly patients were realized.