Prediction of seasonal patterns of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus RNA detection in the U.S. swine industry.
J Vet Diagn Invest
; 32(3): 394-400, 2020 May.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32274974
ABSTRACT
We developed a model to predict the cyclic pattern of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) RNA detection by reverse-transcription real-time PCR (RT-rtPCR) from 4 major swine-centric veterinary diagnostic laboratories (VDLs) in the United States and to use historical data to forecast the upcoming year's weekly percentage of positive submissions and issue outbreak signals when the pattern of detection was not as expected. Standardized submission data and test results were used. Historical data (2015-2017) composed of the weekly percentage of PCR-positive submissions were used to fit a cyclic robust regression model. The findings were used to forecast the expected weekly percentage of PCR-positive submissions, with a 95% confidence interval (CI), for 2018. During 2018, the proportion of PRRSV-positive submissions crossed 95% CI boundaries at week 2, 14-25, and 48. The relatively higher detection on week 2 and 48 were mostly from submissions containing samples from wean-to-market pigs, and for week 14-25 originated mostly from samples from adult/sow farms. There was a recurring yearly pattern of detection, wherein an increased proportion of PRRSV RNA detection in submissions originating from wean-to-finish farms was followed by increased detection in samples from adult/sow farms. Results from the model described herein confirm the seasonal cyclic pattern of PRRSV detection using test results consolidated from 4 VDLs. Wave crests occurred consistently during winter, and wave troughs occurred consistently during the summer months. Our model was able to correctly identify statistically significant outbreak signals in PRRSV RNA detection at 3 instances during 2018.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Contexto en salud:
1_ASSA2030
Problema de salud:
1_surtos_doencas_emergencias
Asunto principal:
Brotes de Enfermedades
/
Virus del Síndrome Respiratorio y Reproductivo Porcino
/
Síndrome Respiratorio y de la Reproducción Porcina
Tipo de estudio:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Animals
País/Región como asunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Vet Diagn Invest
Asunto de la revista:
MEDICINA VETERINARIA
Año:
2020
Tipo del documento:
Article