Profiling retrospective thyroid function data in complete thyroidectomy patients to investigate the HPT axis set point (PREDICT-IT).

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The homeostatic euthyroid set point of the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid axis of any given individual is unique and oscillates narrowly within substantially broader normal population ranges of circulating free thyroxine (FT4) and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), otherwise termed 'thyroid function test (TFT)'. We developed a mathematical algorithm codenamed Thyroid-SPOT that effectively reconstructs the personalized set point in open-loop situations and evaluated its performance in a retrospective patient sample. METHODS: We computed the set points of 101 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy for non-functioning thyroid disease using Thyroid-SPOT on each patient's own serial post-thyroidectomy TFT. Every predicted set point was compared against its respective healthy pre-operative euthyroid TFT per individual and their separation (i.e. predicted-observed TFT) quantified. RESULTS: Bland-Altman analysis to measure the agreement between each pair of an individual's predicted and actual set points revealed a mean difference in FT4 and TSH of + 3.03 pmol/L (95% CI 2.64, 3.43) and - 0.03 mIU/L (95% CI - 0.25, 0.19), respectively. These differences are small compared to the width of the reference intervals. Thyroid-SPOT can predict the euthyroid set point remarkably well, especially for TSH with a 10-16-fold spread in magnitude between population normal limits. CONCLUSION: Every individual's equilibrium euthyroid set point is unique. Thyroid-SPOT serves as an accurate, precise and reliable targeting system for optimal personalized restoration of euthyroidism. This algorithm can guide clinicians in L-thyroxine dose titrations to resolve persistent dysthyroid symptoms among challenging cases harbouring "normal TFT" within the laboratory ranges but differing significantly from their actual euthyroid set points.