The dynamic tradeoff between safety and efficiency in discretionary lane-changing behavior: A random parameters logit approach with heterogeneity in means and variances.

The discretionary lane-changing behavior is highly associated with crash occurrence. This paper investigates the dynamic tradeoff between safety and efficiency and influencing factors of the decision-making process for the discretionary lane-change. A random parameters logit approach with heterogeneity in means and variances is employed on a microscopic vehicle trajectory dataset. Four vehicles are analyzed as a discretionary lane-changing group, and both the distance-related and speed-related factors are taken into account to examine their dynamic effects. The modeling results indicate that (1) two distance-related variables produce significant random parameters with heterogeneity in means and variances, while there is only one speed-related variable having significant result for heterogeneity in means and variances; (2) the relationship between the speed of lane-changing vehicle and the heterogeneity in mean of vehicle clearance distance between leading vehicle in current lane and lane-changing vehicle quantitatively demonstrates that when the driver decides whether to change lanes, the driver considers the tradeoff between distance (i.e., safety) and speed (i.e., efficiency) at the same time; and (3) the number of significant variables is gradually decreased during the lane-changing decision-making process. It demonstrates that the lane-changing decision is a dynamic process where drivers gradually select more critical factors and pay more attention to them.