[Application of ARIMA Model for Mid- and Long-term Forecasting of Ozone Concentration].
Huan Jing Ke Xue
; 42(7): 3118-3126, 2021 Jul 08.
Article
en Zh
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34212637
ABSTRACT
Ozone pollution has recently become a severe air quality issue in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Due to the lack of a precursor emission inventory and complexity of physical and chemical mechanism of ozone generation, numerical modeling still exhibits significant deviations in ozone forecasting. Owing to its simplicity and low calculation costs, the time series analysis model can be effectively applied for ozone pollution forecasting. We conducted a time series analysis of ozone concentration at Shangdianzi, Baoding, and Tianjin sites. Both seasonal and dynamic ARIMA models were established to perform mid- and long-term ozone forecasting. The correlation coefficient R between the predicted and observed value can reach 0.951, and the RMSE is only 10.2 µg·m-3 for the monthly average ozone prediction by the seasonal ARIMA model. The correlation coefficient R between the predicted and observed value increased from 0.296-0.455 to 0.670-0.748, and RMSE was effectively reduced for the 8-hour ozone average predicted by the dynamic ARIMA model.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Contexto en salud:
2_ODS3
Problema de salud:
2_quimicos_contaminacion
Asunto principal:
Ozono
/
Contaminantes Atmosféricos
/
Contaminación del Aire
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
País/Región como asunto:
Asia
Idioma:
Zh
Revista:
Huan Jing Ke Xue
Año:
2021
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
China