Predictive modeling and probabilistic risk assessment of Clostridium perfringens in hamburgers and sandwiches.

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for the survival of Clostridium perfringens in hamburgers and sandwiches and to evaluate their microbial risk. The primary model was developed in hamburgers using 4 strains of C. perfringens at 5, 10, 15, 25 and 37 °C, and the kinetic parameters of the primary model were fitted well with the Weibull model (R 2 ≥ 0.95). The secondary model was developed and validated in hamburgers and sandwiches using the Davey model, which was evaluated by B f , A f , and RMSE values within the acceptable range. A probabilistic risk model was developed and simulated using @Risk program to estimate the probability of infection (P inf ) of C. perfringens based on the data on prevalence (n = 100), time, temperature, and consumption of hamburgers and sandwiches (150.00 ± 20.96 g). Based on the simulation model, the mean C. perfringens exposure dose was 0.00976 CFU/g, and the estimated mean P inf was 1.78 × 10-13, which was very low in comparison with the current available data. The proposed model and the result can thus be useful to establish risk management options and microbial criteria for C. perfringens contamination in hamburgers and sandwiches. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10068-021-01000-z.