Spatio-temporal monitoring of health facility-level malaria trends in Zambia and adaptive scaling for operational intervention.
Commun Med (Lond)
; 2: 79, 2022.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-35789566
ABSTRACT
Background:
The spatial and temporal variability inherent in malaria transmission within countries implies that targeted interventions for malaria control in high-burden settings and subnational elimination are a practical necessity. Identifying the spatio-temporal incidence, risk, and trends at different administrative geographies within malaria-endemic countries and monitoring them in near real-time as change occurs is crucial for developing and introducing cost-effective, subnational control and elimination intervention strategies.Methods:
This study developed intelligent data analytics incorporating Bayesian trend and spatio-temporal Integrated Laplace Approximation models to analyse high-burden over 32 million reported malaria cases from 1743 health facilities in Zambia between 2009 and 2015.Results:
The results show that at least 5.4 million people live in catchment areas with increasing trends of malaria, covering over 47% of all health facilities, while 5.7 million people live in areas with a declining trend (95% CI), covering 27% of health facilities. A two-scale spatio-temporal trend comparison identified significant differences between health facilities and higher-level districts, and the pattern observed in the southeastern region of Zambia provides the first evidence of the impact of recently implemented localised interventions.Conclusions:
The results support our recommendation for an adaptive scaling approach when implementing national malaria monitoring, control and elimination strategies and a particular need for stratified subnational approaches targeting high-burden regions with increasing disease trends. Strong clusters along borders with highly endemic countries in the north and south of Zambia underscore the need for coordinated cross-border malaria initiatives and strategies.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Contexto en salud:
2_ODS3
/
3_ND
Problema de salud:
2_enfermedades_transmissibles
/
3_malaria
/
3_neglected_diseases
Tipo de estudio:
Guideline
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Commun Med (Lond)
Año:
2022
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Reino Unido