Nomogram based on circulating lymphocyte subsets for predicting radiation pneumonia in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

ABSTRACT

Purpose: Currently, the relationship between radiation pneumonia (RP) and circulating immune cell in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) remains unclear. This study aimed to explore the relationship between RP and circulating lymphocyte subsets in patients with ESCC receiving chemoradiotherapy (CRT), and develop a nomogram model to predict RP. Since we should implement clinical intervention to ≥ grade 2 RP, a nomogram model for ≥ grade 2 RP was also established to provide an early warning. Patients and methods: This study retrospectively included 121 patients with ESCC receiving CRT from Guangxi Medical University Cancer Hospital from 2013 to 2021. Independent factors associated with occurrence of RP and ≥ grade 2 RP were identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis in the training cohort, and incorporated into nomograms. The predictive accuracy and discrimination of the model was assessed using Concordance Index (C-index), calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). And each model was internally validated. Additionally, to verify the optimized predictive performance of the nomograms, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of each nomogram was compared to that of single independent risk factors, lung V10 and lung V20, respectively. Moreover, each model was further evaluated for risk stratification to identify populations at high risk of RP and ≥ grade 2 RP. Results: Multivariate analysis suggested that TNM stage, post-RT percentage of CD8+ T cell, and lung V15 were independent predictive factors of RP. Besides, pre- and post-RT percentage of CD8+ T cell, and V15 were independent factors of ≥ grade 2 RP. The C-indexes of RP and ≥ grade 2 RP nomograms were 0.809 (95% CI 0.715-0.903) and 0.787 (95% CI 0.685-0.889) in the training cohort, respectively. And the C-indexes of RP and ≥ grade 2 RP nomograms were 0.718 (95% CI 0.544-0.892) and 0.621 (95% CI 0.404-0.837) in the validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curves showed that the predicted values of model agreed well with actual observations. Moreover, DCA results indicated the applicability and accuracy of the models to predict RP and ≥ grade 2 RP. After stratification, the incidence of the high-risk group was significantly higher than that of the low-risk group with respect to either RP or ≥ grade 2 RP. Conclusion: TNM stage, post-RT percentage of CD8+ T cell, and lung V15 were the independent predictors of RP toxicity. Pre- and post-RT percentage of CD8+ T cell, and lung V15 were the independent factors of ≥ grade 2 RP toxicity. The nomograms based on circulating lymphocyte subsets can robustly predict RP and ≥ grade 2 RP, guiding clinicians in risk stratification and early intervention.