[Multi-state Markov model analysis of disease outcomes and influencing factors in HIV infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy in Luzhou of Sichuan province, 2010-2021].

Objective: To construct a multi-state Markov model and analyze the disease outcomes and its influencing factors in HIV infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy. Methods: A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted in HIV infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy in Luzhou of Sichuan province from 2010 to 2021. The disease status was divided into CD4+T lymphocytes (CD4) counts >500 cells/µl, 350-500 cells/µl, 200-349 cells/µl, ≤199 cells/µl and death indicated by S1-S5 in turn. A reversible continuous-time discrete-state multi-state Markov model was constructed for the analysis of disease progression features. Results: A total of 7 542 HIV infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy were included, and the median age (Q1, Q3) was 53.4 (41.2, 64.5) years old. The transition intensity of S3→S2 was higher. During follow-up, the transition probability of S4→S5 increased gradually. Influencing factors analysis of disease outcomes in HIV infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy showed that compared with individuals 15-24 years old, the transition intensities of S2→S1, S3→S2 and S4→S3 were lower and the transition intensity of S3→S4 was higher in individuals ≥45 years old. Compared with single individuals, the transition intensities of S3→S2 and S4→S3 were higher and the transition intensities of S3→S4 and S4→S5 were lower in married individuals. The transition intensity of S1→S2 was higher in individuals with baseline CD4 counts ≤500 cells/µl than in individuals with baseline CD4 counts >500 cells/µl. The transition intensity of S3→S4 in individuals diagnosed during 2011-2015 was lower than that in individuals diagnosed in 2010 and before. Conclusions: HIV infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy tended to shift to the previous disease status, suggesting that antiretroviral therapy was conducive to immune reconstitution. Older age (≥45 years old), being married, low baseline CD4 counts and being diagnosed in 2010 and before were the risk factors for disease progression.