Driving factors of spatial-temporal difference in China's transportation sector carbon productivity: an empirical analysis based on Geodetector method.

ABSTRACT

Carbon productivity is the core index to measure the performance of carbon emission reduction. Exploring the driving factors of the spatial-temporal differences in China's transportation sector, carbon productivity (TSCP) is conducive to the low-carbon sustainable development of the transportation sector. Based on the calculation of TSCP in 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2019, we use time series, spatial visualization, and Dagum Gini coefficient to reveal the characteristics of spatial-temporal evolution and regional differences of TSCP, and uses Geodetector to identify the driving factors that affecting the spatial-temporal differences of TSCP. The results are as follows (1) from 2000 to 2019, China's TSCP shows a U-shaped change trend of "decline to rise," and shows a spatial pattern of "high in the eastern and central, low in the western". (2) There are obvious regional differences in China's TSCP. The differences within each region show the trend of "eastern > central > western," while the differences between regions show the trend of "central-western > eastern-western > eastern-central," and the differences between regions are the main reason for the overall differences. (3) The spatial-temporal differences in China's TSCP are affected by many factors, such as social economy and self-endowment. Overall, energy intensity, foreign trade, technological innovation level, energy structure, and industrial structure are the dominant factors. Additionally, the interaction between the driving factors enhances the impact on the spatial-temporal differences of TSCP. Finally, according to the analysis results, some policy suggestions are put forward to improve TSCP.