Trajectories of body mass index from early adulthood to late midlife and incidence of total knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: findings from a prospective cohort study.
Osteoarthritis Cartilage
; 31(3): 397-405, 2023 03.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36521732
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
To examine the association between body mass index (BMI) trajectories from early adulthood to late midlife and risk of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) for osteoarthritis.METHODS:
24,368 participants from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study with weight collected during 1990-1994, 1995-1998, and 2003-2007, recalled weight at age 18-21 years, and height measured during 1990-1994 were included. Incident TKA from 2003 to 2007 to December 2018 was determined by linking cohort records to the National Joint Replacement Registry.RESULTS:
Using group-based trajectory modelling, six distinct trajectories (TR) of BMI from early adulthood (age 18-21 years) to late midlife (approximately 62 years) were identified lower normal to normal BMI (TR1; 19.7% population), normal BMI to borderline overweight (TR2; 36.7%), normal BMI to overweight (TR3; 26.8%), overweight to borderline obese (TR4; 3.5%), normal BMI to class 1 obesity (TR5; 10.1%), overweight to class 2 obesity (TR6; 3.2%). Over 12.4 years, 1,328 (5.4%) had TKA. The hazard ratios for TKA increased in all TR compared to TR1 [from TR2 2.03 (95% CI 1.64-2.52) to TR6 8.59 (6.44-11.46)]. 28.4% of TKA could be prevented if individuals followed the trajectory one lower, an average weight reduction of 8-12 kg from early adulthood to late midlife, saving $AUS 373 million/year. Most reduction would occur in TR2 (population attributable fraction 37.9%, 95% CI 26.7-47.3%) and TR3 (26.8%, 20.0-31.2%).CONCLUSIONS:
Prevention of weight gain from young adulthood to late midlife in order to reduce overweight/obesity has the potential to significantly reduce the cost and burden of TKA.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Osteoartritis
/
Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Rodilla
/
Osteoartritis de la Rodilla
Tipo de estudio:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Etiology_studies
/
Incidence_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Osteoarthritis Cartilage
Asunto de la revista:
ORTOPEDIA
/
REUMATOLOGIA
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Article