Projections of Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Burden in the U.S. Population Aged <20 Years Through 2060: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study.
Diabetes Care
; 46(2): 313-320, 2023 02 01.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36580405
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
To project the prevalence and number of youths with diabetes and trends in racial and ethnic disparities in the U.S. through 2060. RESEARCH DESIGN ANDMETHODS:
Based on a mathematical model and data from the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study for calendar years 2002-2017, we projected the future prevalence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes among youth aged <20 years while considering different scenarios of future trends in incidence.RESULTS:
The number of youths with diabetes will increase from 213,000 (95% CI 209,000; 218,000) (type 1 diabetes 185,000, type 2 diabetes 28,000) in 2017 to 239,000 (95% CI 209,000; 282,000) (type 1 diabetes 191,000, type 2 diabetes 48,000) in 2060 if the incidence remains constant as observed in 2017. Corresponding relative increases were 3% (95% CI -9%; 21%) for type 1 diabetes and 69% (95% CI 43%; 109%) for type 2 diabetes. Assuming that increasing trends in incidence observed between 2002 and 2017 continue, the projected number of youths with diabetes will be 526,000 (95% CI 335,000; 893,000) (type 1 diabetes 306,000, type 2 diabetes 220,000). Corresponding relative increases would be 65% (95% CI 12%; 158%) for type 1 diabetes and 673% (95% CI 362%; 1,341%) for type 2 diabetes. In both scenarios, substantial widening of racial and ethnic disparities in type 2 diabetes prevalence are expected, with the highest prevalence among non-Hispanic Black youth.CONCLUSIONS:
The number of youths with diabetes in the U.S. is likely to substantially increase in future decades, which emphasizes the need for prevention to attenuate this trend.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1
/
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2
/
Disparidades Socioeconómicas en Salud
Tipo de estudio:
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Adolescent
/
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Diabetes Care
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Alemania