Development of a risk prediction score and equation for chronic kidney disease: a retrospective cohort study.
Sci Rep
; 13(1): 5001, 2023 03 27.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36973534
ABSTRACT
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a risk factor for end-stage renal disease and contributes to increased risk of cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. We aimed to develop a risk prediction score and equation for future CKD using health checkup data. This study included 58,423 Japanese participants aged 30-69 years, who were randomly assigned to derivation and validation cohorts at a ratio of 21. The predictors were anthropometric indices, life style, and blood sampling data. In derivation cohort, we performed multivariable logistic regression analysis and obtained the standardized beta coefficient of each factor that was significantly associated with new-onset CKD and assigned scores to each factor. We created a score and an equation to predict CKD after 5 years and applied them to validation cohort to assess their reproducibility. The risk score ranged 0-16, consisting of age, sex, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, hyperuricemia, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78 for the derivation cohort and 0.79 for the validation cohort. The CKD incidence gradually and constantly increased as the score increased from ≤ 6 to ≥ 14. The equation consisted of the seven indices described above, with AUC of 0.88 for the derivation cohort and 0.89 for the validation cohort. We developed a risk score and equation to predict CKD incidence after 5 years in Japanese population under 70 years of age. These models had reasonably high predictivity, and their reproducibility was confirmed through internal validation.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Contexto en salud:
6_ODS3_enfermedades_notrasmisibles
Problema de salud:
6_chronic_kidney_disease
/
6_kidney_renal_pelvis_ureter_cancer
Asunto principal:
Insuficiencia Renal Crónica
/
Fallo Renal Crónico
Tipo de estudio:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Etiology_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Aspecto:
Patient_preference
Límite:
Aged
/
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Sci Rep
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Japón