Deep learning prediction model for central lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma based on cytology.

ABSTRACT

Controversy exists regarding whether patients with low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) should undergo surgery or active surveillance; the inaccuracy of the preoperative clinical lymph node status assessment is one of the primary factors contributing to the controversy. It is imperative to accurately predict the lymph node status of PTMC before surgery. We selected 208 preoperative fine-needle aspiration (FNA) liquid-based preparations of PTMC as our research objects; all of these instances underwent lymph node dissection and, aside from lymph node status, were consistent with low-risk PTMC. We separated them into two groups according to whether the postoperative pathology showed central lymph node metastases. The deep learning model was expected to predict, based on the preoperative thyroid FNA liquid-based preparation, whether PTMC was accompanied by central lymph node metastases. Our deep learning model attained a sensitivity, specificity, positive prediction value (PPV), negative prediction value (NPV), and accuracy of 78.9% (15/19), 73.9% (17/23), 71.4% (15/21), 81.0% (17/21), and 76.2% (32/42), respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (value was 0.8503. The predictive performance of the deep learning model was superior to that of the traditional clinical evaluation, and further analysis revealed the cell morphologies that played key roles in model prediction. Our study suggests that the deep learning model based on preoperative thyroid FNA liquid-based preparation is a reliable strategy for predicting central lymph node metastases in thyroid micropapillary carcinoma, and its performance surpasses that of traditional clinical examination.