[Disease burden and prediction of oral cancer attributable to smoking in China from 1990 to 2019].

Objective: To analyze the trend of disease burden of oral cancer attributable to smoking in China from 1990 to 2019, and predict the mortality trend of oral cancer from 2020 to 2034, providing scientific basis for formulating targeted oral cancer prevention and treatment strategy to achieve the goal of "Healthy China 2030". Methods: Using partial data on the global burden of disease in China in 2019, attributive death and disability adjusted life year (DALY) were used to describe. The trend of changes in the burden of oral cancer disease attributed to smoking was analyzed by using the Joinpoint regression model to estimate the annual average percentage change (AAPC) of age standardized mortality and DALY rates. Meanwhile, the Bayesian age-period- cohort model is used to predict oral cancer deaths and DALY trends attributed to smoking over the next 15 years. Results: The age-standardized mortality rate and DALY rate in China from 1990 to 2019 showed an overall upward trend, with an average annual increase of 1.49% (95%CI: 1.34%-1.65%, P<0.001) and 1.41% (95%CI: 1.24%-1.59%, P<0.001) respectively, higher than around the earth and in regions with different socio-demographic index (SDI). In 2019, 46.74% (10 584/22 642) of oral cancer deaths in China were attributed to smoking. Compared to 1990, the number of attributed deaths in 2019 increased by 293.75% (7 896/2 688), while DALY increased by 257.97% (189 039/73 280). Moreover, the growth rates of attributed deaths and DALY in males [304.95% (7 584/2 487) and 265.60% (183 349/69 033), respectively] were significantly higher than those in females [154.73% (311/201) and 133.95% (5 690/4 248), respectively] (P<0.001). The age group results showed that the proportion of deaths and DALY gradually transitioned towards the elderly (>60 years old). The expected number of deaths would increase from 10 731 in 2020 to 14 125 in 2034, with a rise of 31.63% (3 394/10 731). Simultaneously, DALY would increase from 267 064 person years in 2020 to 326 634 person years in 2034, with a rise of 22.31% (59 570/267 064). Conclusions: From 1990 to 2019, the burden of oral cancer diseases attributed to smoking in China showed an increasing trend, with a higher growth rates than in the global and different SDI regions. There were differences in gender and age, and the burden of oral cancer diseases attributed to smoking in China would continue to increase in the next 15 years. It is necessary to educate on the adverse effects of tobacco consumption and to conduct vigilant oral self-examination among high-risk groups to help early detection and intervention at the same time.