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Performance of Prediction Models for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in General Population: A Systematic Review and External Validation Study.
Jiang, Hao; Chen, Ru; Li, Yanyan; Hao, Changqing; Song, Guohui; Hua, Zhaolai; Li, Jun; Wang, Yuping; Wei, Wenqiang.
Afiliación
  • Jiang H; School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
  • Chen R; National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
  • Li Y; Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Personalized Medicine, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
  • Hao C; Cancer Center, Feicheng People's Hospital, Feicheng, China.
  • Song G; Department of Endoscopy, Linzhou Cancer Hospital, Linzhou, China.
  • Hua Z; Department of Epidemiology, Cancer Institute/Hospital of Ci County, Handan, China.
  • Li J; Cancer Institute of Yangzhong City/People's Hospital of Yangzhong City, Yangzhong, China.
  • Wang Y; Cancer Prevention and Treatment Office, Yanting Cancer Hospital, Mianyang, China.
  • Wei W; School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Am J Gastroenterol ; 2024 Feb 07.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38088388
INTRODUCTION: Prediction models for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) need to be proven effective in the target population before they can be applied to population-based endoscopic screening to improve cost-effectiveness. We have systematically reviewed ESCC prediction models applicable to the general population and performed external validation and head-to-head comparisons in a large multicenter prospective cohort including 5 high-risk areas of China (Fei Cheng, Lin Zhou, Ci Xian, Yang Zhong, and Yan Ting). METHODS: Models were identified through a systematic review and validated in a large population-based multicenter prospective cohort that included 89,753 participants aged 40-69 years who underwent their first endoscopic examination between April 2017 and March 2021 and were followed up until December 31, 2022. Model performance in external validation was estimated based on discrimination and calibration. Discrimination was assessed by C-statistic (concordance statistic), and calibration was assessed by calibration plot and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: The systematic review identified 15 prediction models that predicted severe dysplasia and above lesion (SDA) or ESCC in the general population, of which 11 models (4 SDA and 7 ESCC) were externally validated. The C-statistics ranged from 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.69) to 0.70 (0.68-0.71) of the SDA models, and the highest was achieved by Liu et al (2020) and Liu et al (2022). The C-statistics ranged from 0.51 (0.48-0.54) to 0.74 (0.71-0.77), and Han et al (2023) had the best discrimination of the ESCC models. Most models were well calibrated after recalibration because the calibration plots coincided with the x = y line. DISCUSSION: Several prediction models showed moderate performance in external validation, and the prediction models may be useful in screening for ESCC. Further research is needed on model optimization, generalization, implementation, and health economic evaluation.

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Tipo de estudio: Systematic_reviews Idioma: En Revista: Am J Gastroenterol Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: China

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Tipo de estudio: Systematic_reviews Idioma: En Revista: Am J Gastroenterol Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: China
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