Climate change-related biodiversity fluctuations and composition changes in an old-growth subtropical forest: A 26-yr study.

ABSTRACT

The detection and attribution of biodiversity change is of great scientific interest and central to policy effects aimed at meeting biodiversity targets. Yet, how such a diverse climate scenarios influence forest biodiversity and composition dynamics remains unclear, particularly in high diversity systems of subtropical forests. Here we used data collected from the permanent sample plot spanning 26 years in an old-growth subtropical forest. Combining various climatic events (extreme drought, subsequent drought, warming, and windstorm), we analyzed long-term dynamics in multiple metrics richness, turnover, density, abundance, reordering and stability. We did not observe consistent and directional trends in species richness under various climatic scenarios. Still, drought and windstorm events either reduced species gains or increased species loss, ultimately increased species turnover. Tree density increased significantly over time as a result of rapid increase in smaller individuals due to mortality in larger trees. Climate events caused rapid changes in dominant populations due to a handful of species undergoing strong increases or declines in abundance over time simultaneously. Species abundance composition underwent significant changes, particularly in the presence of drought and windstorm events. High variance ratio and species synchrony weaken community stability under various climate stress. Our study demonstrates that all processes underlying forest community composition changes often occur simultaneously and are equally affected by climate events, necessitating a holistic approach to quantifying community changes. By recognizing the interconnected nature of these processes, future research should accelerate comprehensive understanding and predicting of how forest vegetation responds to global climate change.