A modeling pipeline to relate municipal wastewater surveillance and regional public health data.
Water Res
; 252: 121178, 2024 Mar 15.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38309063
ABSTRACT
As COVID-19 becomes endemic, public health departments benefit from improved passive indicators, which are independent of voluntary testing data, to estimate the prevalence of COVID-19 in local communities. Quantification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from wastewater has the potential to be a powerful passive indicator. However, connecting measured SARS-CoV-2 RNA to community prevalence is challenging due to the high noise typical of environmental samples. We have developed a generalized pipeline using in- and out-of-sample model selection to test the ability of different correction models to reduce the variance in wastewater measurements and applied it to data collected from treatment plants in the Chicago area. We built and compared a set of multi-linear regression models, which incorporate pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) as a population biomarker, Bovine coronavirus (BCoV) as a recovery control, and wastewater system flow rate into a corrected estimate for SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration. For our data, models with BCoV performed better than those with PMMoV, but the pipeline should be used to reevaluate any new data set as the sources of variance may change across locations, lab methods, and disease states. Using our best-fit model, we investigated the utility of RNA measurements in wastewater as a leading indicator of COVID-19 trends. We did this in a rolling manner for corrected wastewater data and for other prevalence indicators and statistically compared the temporal relationship between new increases in the wastewater data and those in other prevalence indicators. We found that wastewater trends often lead other COVID-19 indicators in predicting new surges.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Contexto en salud:
4_TD
Problema de salud:
4_pneumonia
Asunto principal:
Salud Pública
/
Tobamovirus
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
/
Screening_studies
Límite:
Animals
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Water Res
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos