The machine learning-based model for lateral lymph node metastasis of thyroid medullary carcinoma improved the prediction ability of occult metastasis.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: For medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) with no positive findings in the lateral neck before surgery, whether prophylactic lateral neck dissection (LND) is needed remains controversial. A better way to predict occult metastasis in the lateral neck is needed. METHODS: From January 2010 to January 2022, patients who were diagnosed with MTC and underwent primary surgery at our hospital were retrospectively reviewed. We collected the patients' baseline characteristics, surgical procedure, and rescored the ultrasound images of the primary lesions using American College of Radiology (ACR) Thyroid Imaging, Reporting and Data System (TI-RADS). Regularized logistic regression, 5-fold cross-validation and decision curve analysis was applied for lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) model's development and validation. Then, we tested the predictive ability of the LLNM model for occult LLNM in cN0-1a patients. RESULTS: A total of 218 patients were enrolled. Five baseline characteristics and two TI-RADS features were identified as high-risk factors for LLNM gender, baseline calcitonin (Ctn), tumor size, multifocality, and central lymph node (CLN) status, as well as TI-RADS margin and level. A LLNM model was developed and showed a good discrimination with 5-fold cross-validation mean area under curve (AUC) = 0.92 ± 0.03 in the test dataset. Among cN0-1a patients, our LLNM model achieved an AUC of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88-0.94) for predicting occult LLNM, which was significantly higher than the AUCs of baseline Ctn (0.83) and CLN status (0.64). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a LLNM prediction model for MTC using machine learning based on clinical baseline characteristics and TI-RADS. Our model can predict occult LLNM for cN0-1a patients more accurately, then benefit the decision of prophylactic LND.