Estimated plasma volume status as a simple and accessible predictor of 28-day mortality in septic shock: insights from a retrospective study of the MIMIC-IV database.

ABSTRACT

Background: Assessing volume status in septic shock patients is crucial for tailored fluid resuscitation. Estimated plasma volume status (ePVS) has emerged as a simple and effective tool for evaluating patient volume status. However, the prognostic value of ePVS in septic shock patients remains underexplored. Methods: The study cohort consisted of septic shock patients admitted to the ICU, sourced from the MIMIC-IV database. Patients were categorized into two groups based on 28-day survival outcomes, and their baseline characteristics were compared. According to the ePVS (6.52 dL/g) with a hazard ratio of 1 in the restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis, patients were further divided into high and low ePVS groups. A multivariable Cox regression model was utilized to evaluate the association between ePVS and 28-day mortality rate. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve was plotted, and all-cause mortality was compared between the high and low groups using the log-rank test. Results: A total of 7,607 septic shock patients were included in the study, among whom 2,144 (28.2%) died within 28 days. A J-shaped relationship was observed between ePVS at ICU admission and 28-day mortality, with an increase in mortality risk noted when ePVS exceeded 6.52 dL/g. The high ePVS group exhibited notably higher mortality rates compared to the low ePVS group (28-day mortality 26.2% vs. 30.2%; 90-day mortality 35% vs. 42.3%). After adjustment for confounding factors, ePVS greater than 6.52 dL/g independently correlated with an increased risk of 28-day mortality (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.10-1.31, p < 0.001) and 90-day mortality (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.15-1.35, p < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated a heightened risk of mortality associated with ePVS values exceeding 6.52 dL/g. Conclusion: A J-shaped association was observed between ePVS and 28-day mortality in septic shock patients, with higher ePVS levels associated with increased risk of mortality.