A novel nomogram to predict glucocorticoid response in thyroid-associated ophthalmopathy: findings from a pilot study.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Aimed to create a nomogram using clinical and eye-specific metrics to predict the efficacy of intravenous glucocorticoid (IVGC) therapy in patients with active and moderate-to-severe Thyroid-Associated Ophthalmopathy (TAO). METHODS: This study was conducted on 84 eyes from 42 moderate-to-severe TAO patients who received systemic IVGC therapy, and 42 eyes from 21 controls. Data were collected retrospectively from June 2020 to December 2021. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method was used to identify predictive factors for "unresponsiveness" to IVGC therapy. These factors were then analyzed using logistic regression to create a nomogram. The model's discriminative ability was robustly assessed using a Bootstrap resampling method with 1000 iterations for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: The LASSO analysis identified six factors with non-zero coefficients as significant, including Schirmer I test values, Meibomian gland (MG) diameter, MG length, disease duration, whole capillary vessel density (VD) in the radial peripapillary capillary (RPC), and whole macular VD for the superficial retinal capillary plexus (SRCP). The subsequent logistic regression model highlighted MG length, whole macular VD for SRCP, and disease duration as independent predictors of IVGC therapy response. The constructed nomogram demonstrated an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.82 (95% CI 0.73-0.91), affirming the model's consistent and reliable ability to distinguish between responsive and non-responsive TAO patients. CONCLUSION: Our nomogram, combining MG length (<4.875 mm), SRCP VD (<50.25%), and disease duration (>5.5 months), reliably predicts lower IVGC therapy effectiveness in active, moderate-to-severe TAO patients.