Markov chain quasi-Monte Carlo method for forecasting fire hotspots in Sarawak, Malaysia.

ABSTRACT

Stochastic modeling approaches have attracted many researchers to the field. However, fire hotspot detection suffers from not using a Markov chain quasi-Monte Carlo (MCQMC) as a forecasting methodology. This paper proposes improvements to the computational time by combining the strengths of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods. The proposed method can lead to more precise and stable results, particularly in problems with high-dimensional integration or complex probability distributions. The proposed method is applied to a case study of fire hotspot detection in Sarawak, Malaysia. The outcome of this study reveals that the MCQMC method is more computationally efficient, taking only 0.0746 seconds compared to MCMC's 0.0914 seconds and QMC's 0.0994 seconds. It is shown that the best option derived by the proposed method is effective in predicting fire hotspots and providing quick solutions to protect the environment and communities from forest fires.