Interrogating Genomes and Geography to Unravel Multiyear Vesicular Stomatitis Epizootics.

ABSTRACT

We conducted an integrative analysis to elucidate the spatial epidemiological patterns of the Vesicular Stomatitis New Jersey virus (VSNJV) during the 2014-15 epizootic cycle in the United States (US). Using georeferenced VSNJV genomics data, confirmed vesicular stomatitis (VS) disease cases from surveillance, and a suite of environmental factors, our study assessed environmental and phylogenetic similarity to compare VS cases reported in 2014 and 2015. Despite uncertainties from incomplete virus sampling and cross-scale spatial processes, patterns suggested multiple independent re-invasion events concurrent with potential viral overwintering between sequential seasons. Our findings pointed to a geographically defined southern virus pool at the US-Mexico interface as the source of VSNJV invasions and overwintering sites. Phylodynamic analysis demonstrated an increase in virus diversity before a rise in case numbers and a pronounced reduction in virus diversity during the winter season, indicative of a genetic bottleneck and a significant narrowing of virus variation between the summer outbreak seasons. Environment-vector interactions underscored the central role of meta-population dynamics in driving disease spread. These insights emphasize the necessity for location- and time-specific management practices, including rapid response, movement restrictions, vector control, and other targeted interventions.