Development of modified fuzzy FMEA method in environmental risk assessment of earth dams.

ABSTRACT

The investigations have shown that the construction of the dam and its related facilities have significant physical-chemical and ecological effects on the ecosystem. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a technique for ranking risks in projects to construct dams, but it has many deficiencies and ambiguities. Therefore, to prevent the shortcomings of the classical method, the modified fuzzy inference system (MFIS-FMEA) method has been used by creating a two-stage model to more accurately assess the risk of Eyvashan Dam. First, all the considered indicators are weighted using the Shannon entropy method, and the environmental risk is prioritized using the Fuzzy OWA method. In this study, two-stage fuzzy reasoning and a Max-Min combination rule are used. When severity (SEV) and occurrence (OCC) variables are combined, the critical risk index (RCI) values are predicted in the first stage. RCI and detection index (DET) input are then used to predict the MFIS-RPN in the second stage. The results of the risk priority number (RPN) in the MFIS-RPN method are much more accurate and serious than the FIS-RPN method due to the two-stage nature and the use of new language terms. The results of the proposed MFIS-RPN technique show that the highest RPN was obtained with immediate action in the dam construction phase for soil erosion and soil pollution and in the dam operation phase for aquatic and water pollution. Therefore, due to the increase in risk score, it is necessary to take immediate and more accurate monitoring during the construction and operation phases.