Clinical Prediction Models in Neurocritical Care: An Overview of the Literature and Example Application to Prediction of Hospital Mortality in Traumatic Brain Injury.

ABSTRACT

Clinical prediction models serve as valuable instruments for assessing the risk of crucial outcomes and facilitating decision-making in clinical settings. Constructing these models requires nuanced analytical decisions and expertise informed by the current statistical literature. Access and thorough understanding of such literature may be limited for neurocritical care physicians, which may hinder the interpretation of existing predictive models. The present emphasis is on narrowing this knowledge gap by providing neurocritical care specialists with methodological guidance for interpreting predictive models in neurocritical care. Presented are the statistical learning principles integral to constructing a model predicting hospital mortality (nonsurvival during hospitalization) in patients with moderate and severe blunt traumatic brain injury using components of the IMPACT-Core model. Discussion encompasses critical elements such as model flexibility, hyperparameter selection, data imbalance, cross-validation, model assessment (discrimination and calibration), prediction instability, and probability thresholds. The intricate interplay among these components, the data set, and the clincal context of neurocritical care is elaborated. Leveraging this comprehensive exploration of statistical learning can enhance comprehension of articles encompassing model generation, tailored clinical care, and, ultimately, better interpretation and clinical applicability of predictive models.