Spatiotemporal evolution of runoff and sediment and their dominant driving factors in the Lower Jinsha River basin.

ABSTRACT

The Jinsha River Basin (JRB) contributes a significant amount of sediment to the Yangtze River; however, an imbalance exists between runoff and sediment. The underlying mechanisms and primary factors driving this imbalance remain unclear. In this study, the Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) and Geographical Detector Model (GDM) were employed to quantify the importance of the driving factors for water yield (WYLD) and sediment yield (SYLD) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in the JRB. The results indicated that the SWAT model performed well in simulating runoff and sediment, with R2 > 0.61 and NSE > 0.5. Based on the simulated data, SYLD exhibited strong spatiotemporal linkages with WYLD. Temporally, both sediment and runoff showed decreasing trends, with the sediment decrease being more pronounced. Spatially, WYLD and SYLD displayed similar distribution patterns, with low values in the southwest and high values in the northeast. By quantifying the driving factors, we found that climatic factors, including precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, were the main influencing factors for WYLD and SYLD across the entire region, though their contributions to the two variables differed. For WYLD, climatic factors accounted for 70 % of the total influencing factors, whereas their contribution to SYLD was 50 %. Furthermore, soil type and land-use type played significant roles in the SYLD, with importance values of 16 % and 12 %, respectively. Under the influence of surface conditions, the proportion of SYLD in the JRB to the total SYLD in the Yangtze River Basin was greater than that of WYLD. The findings of this study provide scientific evidence and technical support for local environmental impact assessments and the formulation of soil and water conservation plans.