Development and Validation of a Nomogram Model for Predicting in-Hospital Mortality in non-Diabetic Patients with non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Myocardial Infarction.

ABSTRACT

Non-ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) is a life-threatening clinical emergency with a poor prognosis. However, there are no individualized nomogram models to identify patients at high risk of NSTEMI who may undergo death. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram for in-hospital mortality in patients with NSTEMI to facilitate rapid risk stratification of patients. A total of 774 non-diabetic patients with NSTEMI were included in this study. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression was used to initially screen potential predictors. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression (backward stepwise selection) analyses were performed to identify the optimal predictors for the prediction model. The corresponding nomogram was constructed based on those predictors. The receiver operating characteristic curve, GiViTI calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. The nomogram model consisting of six predictors age (OR = 1.10; 95% CI 1.05-1.15), blood urea nitrogen (OR = 1.06; 95% CI 1.00-1.12), albumin (OR = 0.93; 95% CI 0.87-1.00), triglyceride (OR = 1.41; 95% CI 1.09-2.00), D-dimer (OR = 1.39; 95% CI 1.06-1.80), and aspirin (OR = 0.16; 95% CI 0.06-0.42). The nomogram had good discrimination (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.89, 95% CI 0.84-0.94), calibration, and clinical usefulness. In this study, we developed a nomogram model to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with NSTEMI based on common clinical indicators. The proposed nomogram has good performance, allowing rapid risk stratification of patients with NSTEMI.