Development of a multivariable prediction model for progression of systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease.
RMD Open
; 10(3)2024 Sep 05.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-39242112
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
To develop a multivariable model for predicting the progression of systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) over 52 weeks.METHODS:
We used logistic regression models to analyse associations between candidate predictors assessed at baseline and progression of SSc-ILD (absolute decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) % predicted >5% or death) over 52 weeks in the placebo group of the SENSCIS trial. Analyses were performed in the overall placebo group and in a subgroup with early and/or inflammatory SSc and/or severe skin fibrosis (<18 months since first non-Raynaud symptom, elevated inflammatory markers, and/or modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) >18) at baseline. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).RESULTS:
In the overall placebo group (n=288), the performance of the final multivariable model for predicting SSc-ILD progression was moderate (apparent AUC 0.63). A stronger model, with an apparent AUC of 0.75, was developed in the subgroup with early and/or inflammatory SSc and/or severe skin fibrosis at baseline (n=155). This model included diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLco) % predicted, time since first non-Raynaud symptom, mRSS, anti-topoisomerase I antibody status and mycophenolate use.CONCLUSION:
Prediction of the progression of SSc-ILD may require different approaches in distinct subgroups of patients. Among patients with SSc-ILD and early and/or inflammatory SSc and/or severe skin fibrosis, a nomogram based on a multivariable model may be of value for identifying patients at risk of short-term progression.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Esclerodermia Sistémica
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Enfermedades Pulmonares Intersticiales
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Progresión de la Enfermedad
Límite:
Adult
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Revista:
RMD Open
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Japón