Endemic stability--a veterinary idea applied to human public health.
Lancet
; 357(9264): 1284-6, 2001 Apr 21.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-11418173
ABSTRACT
Endemic stability is an epidemiological state of a population, in which clinical disease is scarce despite high level of infection. The notion was developed to describe patterns of tick-borne disease in cattle. However, we propose a general model of endemic stability that is applicable to a broader range of diseases that are important in public health, including malaria, rubella, and mumps. We postulate that endemic stability requires only that (1) the probability, or severity, of clinical disease after infection increases with age, and (2) after one infection, the probability that subsequent infections result in disease is reduced. We present these criteria in simple mathematical terms. Our hypothesis predicts that partial disease control activities might, under certain circumstances, lead to an increase in disease incidence. We discuss the implications for public health interventions.
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Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Contexto em Saúde:
2_ODS3
/
3_ND
Problema de saúde:
2_enfermedades_transmissibles
/
3_malaria
Assunto principal:
Saúde Pública
/
Métodos Epidemiológicos
/
Doenças Transmissíveis
/
Doenças Endêmicas
/
Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
Aspecto:
Determinantes_sociais_saude
Limite:
Animals
/
Child, preschool
/
Humans
/
Infant
/
Newborn
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Lancet
Ano de publicação:
2001
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Reino Unido