A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs--a case study for the Gulf of Finland.
Mar Pollut Bull
; 76(1-2): 61-71, 2013 Nov 15.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-24113092
ABSTRACT
Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).
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Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Contexto em Saúde:
1_ASSA2030
/
2_ODS3
Problema de saúde:
1_financiamento_saude
/
1_surtos_doencas_emergencias
/
2_quimicos_contaminacion
Assunto principal:
Poluição Química da Água
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Poluição por Petróleo
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Modelos Estatísticos
/
Recuperação e Remediação Ambiental
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Health_economic_evaluation
/
Risk_factors_studies
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Mar Pollut Bull
Ano de publicação:
2013
Tipo de documento:
Article