How to manage future groundwater resource of China under climate change and urbanization: An optimal stage investment design from modern portfolio theory.

ABSTRACT

Groundwater management in China has been facing challenges from both climate change and urbanization and is considered as a national priority nowadays. However, unprecedented uncertainty exists in future scenarios making it difficult to formulate management planning paradigms. In this paper, we apply modern portfolio theory (MPT) to formulate an optimal stage investment of groundwater contamination remediation in China. This approach generates optimal weights of investment to each stage of the groundwater management and helps maximize expected return while minimizing overall risk in the future. We find that the efficient frontier of investment displays an upward-sloping shape in risk-return space. The expected value of groundwater vulnerability index increases from 0.6118 to 0.6230 following with the risk of uncertainty increased from 0.0118 to 0.0297. If management investment is constrained not to exceed certain total cost until 2050 year, the efficient frontier could help decision makers make the most appropriate choice on the trade-off between risk and return.