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Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse.
Bland, Lucie M; Regan, Tracey J; Dinh, Minh Ngoc; Ferrari, Renata; Keith, David A; Lester, Rebecca; Mouillot, David; Murray, Nicholas J; Nguyen, Hoang Anh; Nicholson, Emily.
Afiliação
  • Bland LM; Deakin University, Australia, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Integrative Ecology, Burwood, 3121, Victoria, Australia l.bland@deakin.edu.au.
  • Regan TJ; School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, 3010, Victoria, Australia.
  • Dinh MN; The Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, 123 Brown Street, Heidelberg, 3084, Victoria, Australia.
  • Ferrari R; Research Computing Centre, University of Queensland, St Lucia, 4072, Queensland, Australia.
  • Keith DA; Coastal and Marine Ecosystems Group, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
  • Lester R; Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Science, University of New South Wales, Kensington, 2052, New South Wales, Australia.
  • Mouillot D; New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage, Hurstville, 2220, New South Wales, Australia.
  • Murray NJ; Long Term Ecological Research Network, Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network, Australian National University, Canberra, 0200, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
  • Nguyen HA; Deakin University, Australia, Centre for Regional and Rural Futures, Geelong, 3220, Victoria, Australia.
  • Nicholson E; UMR 5119-Écologie des Systèmes marins côtiers, Université Montpellier 2, Montpellier Cedex 5, France.
Proc Biol Sci ; 284(1863)2017 Sep 27.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28931744
Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key mechanisms of decline to be addressed by management. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria to quantify the risk of collapse of the Meso-American Reef, a unique ecosystem containing the second longest barrier reef in the world. We collated a wide array of empirical data (field and remotely sensed), and used a stochastic ecosystem model to backcast past ecosystem dynamics, as well as forecast future ecosystem dynamics under 11 scenarios of threat. The ecosystem is at high risk from mass bleaching in the coming decades, with compounding effects of ocean acidification, hurricanes, pollution and fishing. The overall status of the ecosystem is Critically Endangered (plausibly Vulnerable to Critically Endangered), with notable differences among Red List criteria and data types in detecting the most severe symptoms of risk. Our case study provides a template for assessing risks to coral reefs and for further application of ecosystem models in risk assessment.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Contexto em Saúde: 2_ODS3 Problema de saúde: 2_quimicos_contaminacion Assunto principal: Ecossistema / Medição de Risco / Conservação dos Recursos Naturais / Recifes de Corais Tipo de estudo: Etiology_studies / Guideline / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Animals Idioma: En Revista: Proc Biol Sci Assunto da revista: BIOLOGIA Ano de publicação: 2017 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Austrália

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Contexto em Saúde: 2_ODS3 Problema de saúde: 2_quimicos_contaminacion Assunto principal: Ecossistema / Medição de Risco / Conservação dos Recursos Naturais / Recifes de Corais Tipo de estudo: Etiology_studies / Guideline / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Animals Idioma: En Revista: Proc Biol Sci Assunto da revista: BIOLOGIA Ano de publicação: 2017 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Austrália
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