Using a deep convolutional neural network to predict 2017 ozone concentrations, 24 hours in advance.

ABSTRACT

In this study, we use a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to develop a model that predicts ozone concentrations 24 h in advance. We have evaluated the model for 21 continuous ambient monitoring stations (CAMS) across Texas. The inputs for the CNN model consist of meteorology (e.g., wind field, temperature) and air pollution concentrations (NO x and ozone) from the previous day. The model is trained for predicting next-day, 24-hour ozone concentrations. We acquired meteorological and air pollution data from 2014 to 2017 from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ). For 19 of the 21 stations in the study, results show that the yearly index of agreement (IOA) is above 0.85, confirming the acceptable accuracy of the CNN model. The results also show the model performed well, even for stations with varying monthly trends of ozone concentrations (specifically CAMS-012, located in El-Paso, and CAMS-013, located in Fort Worth, both with IOA=0.89). In addition, to ensure that the model was robust, we tested it on stations where fewer meteorological variables are monitored. Although these stations have fewer input features, their performance is similar to that of other stations. However, despite its success at capturing daily trends, the model mostly underpredicts the daily maximum ozone, which provides a direction for future study and improvement. As this model predicts ozone concentrations 24 h in advance with greater accuracy and computationally fewer resources, it can serve as an early warning system for individuals susceptible to ozone and those engaging in outdoor activities.