[Estimating the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China].
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi
; 41(4): 476-479, 2020 Apr 10.
Article
em Zh
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32125128
ABSTRACT
Objective:
The number of confirmed and suspected cases of the COVID-19 in Hubei province is still increasing. However, the estimations of the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 varied greatly across studies. The objectives of this study are 1) to estimate the basic reproduction number (R(0)) of COVID-19 reflecting the infectiousness of the virus and 2) to assess the effectiveness of a range of controlling intervention.Methods:
The reported number of daily confirmed cases from January 17 to February 8, 2020 in Hubei province were collected and used for model fit. Four methods, the exponential growth (EG), maximum likelihood estimation (ML), sequential Bayesian method (SB) and time dependent reproduction numbers (TD), were applied to estimate the R(0).Results:
Among the four methods, the EG method fitted the data best. The estimated R(0) was 3.49 (95%CI 3.42-3.58) by using EG method. The R(0) was estimated to be 2.95 (95%CI 2.86-3.03) after taking control measures.Conclusions:
In the early stage of the epidemic, it is appropriate to estimate R(0) using the EG method. Meanwhile, timely and effective control measures were warranted to further reduce the spread of COVID-19.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Contexto em Saúde:
4_TD
Problema de saúde:
4_pneumonia
Assunto principal:
Pneumonia Viral
/
Infecções por Coronavirus
/
Número Básico de Reprodução
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
Zh
Revista:
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China